What If ? ...We now had the opportunity to GLOBALLY brainstorm and design a practical and fair socio-political blueprint of a FUTURE-IDEAL MODEL that humanity could use maybe 100 or 500 years from now to govern itself and the earth we depend on? Would YOU like to be a contributing architect to define, debate and propose ideas to create such system for our children's children??
My ambition before I die one day is to put forward an ultimate MANAGEMENT MANUAL FOR HUMANITY. All inputs will be considered, debated, discussed & evaluated towards this objective, under each critical objective & success factor. ANY IDEAS???
WHY SHOULD I CARE ABOUT THE DISTANT FUTURE OF SOCIETY?
I am an engineer living in South Africa, and Manufacturing Director of a medium size companyemploying 250 persons. This is my personal project to design an engineering solution to resolve some of the world's problems in a fair, practical and feasible manner, without ALLOWING current political, economic, environmental or social issues bias the outcome of a FUTURE-IDEAL MODEL for the world we live in. Having lived in the multi-cultural rainbow society of Southern Africa for 41 years, having experienced the MANDELA TRANSFORMATION MIRACLE first hand, seen the absolute extremes of poverty and wealth both in Africa and South America, experienced injustices of past and present political systems, seen absenteeism and attrition of HIV/AIDS take its toll in a high-unemployment society, seen the effect of education in different societies,and having experienced violent crime personally, I see it as a professional duty of each and every concerned individual on this planet to contribue towards a better life for all. The questions are:
- WHAT are the areas of concern that we would like to see changed for the benefit of individuals and humanity?
- WHERE should we focus first?
- HOW can we do things better? Eradicate poverty, hunger and misery? Improve Health? Reduce violent conflict? Save the environment? Change the political landscape to get things done that need to be done? Improve individual lifestyle? Optimise limited natural and food resources? How can we raise the education level for all?
- To what EXTENT do we have to modify our selfish behaviour to get the broad society needs understood and acted upon?
LET THE THINKING BEGIN.
141 comments:
The following areas must be considered as priorities for action:
1.Style of Government -Politics vs Project Management vs Specialist Business portfolio management style? vs...
2.Economic Model development to promote prosperity and create employment for every-one willing to work everywhere in the world
3.Protection Services Model to re-align military forces towards a civil or disaster management protection service
4.Free Option Health education and care for everyone everywhere.
5.Education for everyone everywhere aligned with latest technology and body of knowledge
6.Management and constant upgrading of Civil Works (eg Water reticulation, waste, roads,ports, harbours
7.Resource & Environmental management eg water resources,pollution,recycling, essential mineral preservation, Food sources and essential food provision for everyone everywhere.
8.New cultural Norms and expectations from citizens and measures/ systems to deal with offenders, fraud or criminals
9. Less work more leisure and physical activities for all
10.Definition of Democratic Elections and minimum selection criteria for candidates to management or political structures
11. Overpopulation issues and housing / community town planning approach.
12.Technological R&D to improve knowledge and quality of life.
CONSTRAINTS & IDEAS TO BE CONSIDERED:- PART 1
1)Conservation of resources - Fossil Fuels, Coal Availability
2)Energy Generation Technology & Clean / Green Energy rulings (Solar / Nuclear / Wind / Wave / Geothermal / Fuel Cell / Hydro-electric / Other ?)
3)Environmental problems / Green Living areas / sustainable habitation / waste recycling.
4)Optimal Food Growing methods, technology / genetic engineering /Optimal cultivation area distribution, Soil conservation
5) Pollution Ocean & Atmospheric
6) Water availability & generation / conservation / utilisation
7)Efficint Self & Mass Transportation Systems & carriage of goods & personnel
8) Communications & IT
9) Artificial Intelligence
10)Elimination of physical MONEY circulation to personal electronic transactions (To by pass theft, fraud & tax evasion)
11) Elimination of Weapons of Mass Destruction, and development of personal self defence non lethal systems
12)Promotion of Health through correct Eating Habits and elimination or active discouragementof dangerous ingredients or foods (Alcohol?,greasy foods? cigarettes & drugs?). The ill health of individuals impacts on social costs of communities.
13)Active promotion of physical Health through social club & community programmes. Possible compulsory social disaster protection /defence service for school leavers
14)Active promotion of mental stimulation programe participation and continuing education beyond retirement.
15)Education & Training free and available
16)Establishment AND commitment to a common RELIGIOUS CHARTER by all religious leaders / groups that allows freedom of association for all, with internationally enforcable laws pertaining to respect for the other's creed and pledge to peacefully resolve any differences without resorting to violence, terrorism or war.
17)Re-think international boundaries, which are currently man-imposed on historical grounds, and which cause barriers to trade and migration. Can a FEW SUSTAINABLE TERRITORIES be established throughout the world where a number of small countries link together to form BLOCS along the lines of Common Sustainable monetary Areas such as EEC? This will reduce the possibility of dictators or bad politics ruining an individual country or nation, if administration along decentralised or Federal Management systems replace inefficient political systems ( eg Zimbabwe, Darfur and similar situations of Human disgrace should never be repeated errors of a future senario.)
18)What Type of Employment Model would allow people to reach their maximum educational, mental and earning potential according to identification of individual talent, skill and preferenc? Should we strive for a balance of extremes on individual wealth, family and leisure time vs work time?
19) How can we redefine a FAMILY and SOCIETY norm to produce future generations of High Values, based on respect for human life and society?
20) Is there a way to minimise economic cycles that cause unemployment and distress? Maybe through constant base load of Civil Project Capital Expenditure to provide an employment base whilst providing Essential Projects and Disaster Elimination solutions? Should a compulsory Community Service for all school leavers provide the initial earning and society training for everyone, keeping unemployed youth off the streets whilst instilling discipline (For Males & Females).
21)Instead of Governments / Administrations manipulating Monetary Policy through the stop/start mechanisms of Money Supply and Interest rate change which immediately cause massive movements of stock prices, capital movements and cost of credit, perhaps Federal Reserve or Reserve Banks should not interfere. The role of the Federal Reserves or Reserve Banks should be redefined to limit interference in the Free Market Economy, and concentrate on managing the constant Capital Expenditure of each economic region focused on Social Civil Projects. This would lead to the continuous improvement of social facilities such as Road Networks, Harbours, Waste Treatment, Water Resources, Hospitals, Education Centres and Shelters, Green Energy Projects with Low or negative Returns, Non Commercially viable R&D for the betterment of Human Society.
22) POPULATION GROWTH needs to be controlled within sustainable limits by active education programmes
23)MINERAL EXPLOITATION AND COMMODITY supply/price manipulation by an oligopolistic concentration needs to be re-defined with a view to sustainable extraction rate for future generations.
24)POLITICIANS that run Governments or Administrations must undergo a radical culture change, and introduce minimum qualification criteria with balance from the current legal / social sciences predominance towards an EconomiST/ Finacial / Engineering / Town Planning / Project Management / Scientific /IS and Technocratic make -up. Possibly a quota system is required to enforce such changes, and to change Party Political Self Interest YES-MEN to real, practical techno-based objective and Action Oriented Professional Directors. POLITICIANS ARE KNOWN TO TALK AND DEBATE A LOT, TECHNOLOGISTS TEND TO AGREE ON WORK LISTS AND TARGET COMPLETION DATES. There is definite need for objectivity and balance in our political systems.
THE EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS:WHAT SHOULD BE THE RULES IN A FUTURE SOCIETY?
a)GENETIC & BIO- ENGINEERING: There should be areas where R&D in this field might become essential for the long term survival of our species, and other aspects that may need universal control. Possibilities where we must focus our future development in these fields could be:
1.Genetic elimination of hereditary deseases
2.Quick effective treatment of illnesses or dread deseases that develop later in life (eg cardio, cancer, diabetes type 2,TB, etc
3.Effective & quick response to viruses (Human & animal)
4.Dealing with mental illnesses, depression, etc.
5. Corrective brain cell manipulation to deal with violent or criminal behaviour. This could be based on medical advice or court decisions where sentencing directs guilty parties to a quick-fix, permanent medical treatment rather than inefficient, unproductive and inhumane jails.
6. Acceptable Genetically Modified Food production to eliminate malnutrition and hunger.
7.Development of plant food that can still grow in catastrophic senarios (eg if earth is affected by asteroid collision, volcanos, drastic temperature or weather pattern changes, desertification or ground water salinity levels). Thus we may be able to avoid a dinosaur-type extinction.
b).ENERGY GENERATION:At this point in time, besides fossil fuel & green energy generation, Nuclear Energy (both Fission & Fusion?)expansion seems un-avoidable. What rules and management / Security Structures should a future society consider?
c). WIRELESS COMMUNICATION: Could a Level of �xcessive radio wave pollution'be reached one day where rules and limitations need to be enforced?
d). PROVISION OF WATER: Quality Water is the single most impotant compound to sustain life and conservation of all species on earth. What global or regional agreements, technology R&D,management systems, rules and limitations are to be formulated to eliminate possibility of future regional conflicts?
e). How should Housing and Urbanisation vs rural habitation models be re-formulated to optimise the use of fertile land for food production, promote economic prosperity for all and assist in Energy Conservation through appropriate transportation,Energy reticulation
water and waste systems?
f)Population Growth: What is the optimal level of total population sustainance regionally and globally, what are the trends in demographics and Age Distribution, how should population birth rate be managed, what are the paradigm shifts essential for a future society?
g)Economic Distribution System: How can we ensure economic prosperity for all in a system of social and medical security for all, without interfering with forces of Free Market System? What or How should a next Hybrid Economic Order be designed to pick on the best aspects of economic models used to date? How can we reach a WIN-WIN situation between the current owners of Assets and Capital and the disposessed or poverty line societies? How can we eliminate the 'manufactured'or 'panic'disturbances that affect the current Capitalist Societies today/ (eg Recessions, Upswings, creation of runs where the few global financial 'gamblers'of currency, commodity and stocks impose society pains and suffering, interest rate manipulation and interference by Governments, etc). IS THERE AN IDEAL HYBRID ECONOMIC MODEL TO RULE FUTURE SOCIETY?
CONCEPTS THAT NEED DEBATE AND DIRECTIVE TOWARDS A FUTURE SOLUTION:
1. NATIONALISM: How should the concept of belongingness through ethnic, nationalist and cultural difference be addressed? ( so that the superordinate goal remains the optimal management of the planet and the human species without necessarily obscuring the history and cultural beliefs of persons with different cultural or racial identity). Would such solution lead to elimination of regional tensions and ultimately unproductive and damaging conflict?
2. FREE TRADE / BARTER / EXCHANGE OF GOODS & SERVICES: Should a future society require the imposition of trade barriers such as import duties, quotas, preferential agreements, etc? Should customs or border controls only engage in prevention of illicit trade (eg drugs and banned chemicals or substances)? Imposition of tariffs on goods have the effect of making commodities and goods more expensive, whilst imposing a tremendous administrative and cost burden globally, which does not add any value to the goods or services in question. Why keep?
3.FREE MOVEMENT & MIGRATION- INTERNATIONAL & INTER-REGIONAL: In a future society, is there any need for passport/ passport control / movement of people? If all regions on the planet can provide sufficient opportunities for a good, prosperous, income producing and fulfilling life for all, then there should be no need for people to migrate, and the ethnic or cultural fabric of each regional society should be sufficient to retain people to their country of birth. Internationl travel and movement could therefore be primarily reserved for business or tourism & leisure, and less for provision of cheap labour to another nation.
4.SINGLE CURRENCY MONETARY UNIT: Would a future society need the dozens of currencies that are currently in use? What if there was only a single global currency unit? Would this not eliminate the unproductive and disruptive mechanism of arbitrage, and therefore eliminate the gambling nature of today's fund transfers? Would this not have the stabilising effect of eliminating unpredictable stresses from everyday economy, and focus the mental power of the planet away from �reation of wealth by non-productive manipulation of stocks and cornering of markets towards the production of essential goods and services?
5. FUTURE STOCK EXCHANGES:A Stock Exchange of the future should aim at raising capital for new projects and new employment creation businesses, not for the self-promoting interests of global fund managers who use the stock and commodity exchanges as the ideal vehicles to park or manipulate investment funds for quick and short term aimed profitability rather than long term commitment. This can be seen by the intense quarterly performance objectives of listed companies, versus the longer term vision of founder owners of smaller or non-listed companies. A solution has to be found for the best interest investments of retiremant and insurance funds collected globally. How would this interface with a Social Security System of the future that ensures everyone is taken care of to their last day of thei life? What social impact would such philosophy impose on humanity? Is there an ideal model somewhere that on can use as a base model? (Nordic Countries?)
SELF VS SOCIETY REGULATIONS
In a future society, the most difficult negotiation may be the freedom and interests of the individual vs the requirements of a balanced and optimal society model. For exammple, there have to be certain rules and expectations regarding the following aspects:
1. A FREEDOM CHARTER for the individual, in terms of his/her rights in life and society
2. A CHARTER OF SOCIAL RULES & BEHAVIOURAL EXPECTATIONS from each individual in a geographic/local society
3. A CHARTER OF CITIZEN OBLIGATIONS TO SOCIETY by each individual or family unit
4. LIMITATIONS of any potential intrusion to individual privacy and association, including 'BIG BROTHER SURVEILLANCE'rules and exclusions.
5.A RELIGIOUS CHARTER setting out rules and restrictions of interference among diverse faith and belief systems of individuals or society groups, based on the principle of mutual respect, tolerance and peaceful negotiation to resolve differences.
6. A PRODUCTIVITY CHARTER of individual EXPECTATIONS in society. For example,part of working society cannot be expected to carry'the burden of 'willful laziness or unwillingness to work'by un-cooperative individuals. How can a model be designed to deal with this? How can a model eventually bring about the elimination of 'parasitic behaviour'in our society?
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE:
The current political national boundaries and governance systems have evolved over the centuries along those created by successive conquests or colonisation by the civilisations "ín power" at a particular time and region, eg Hellenic, Roman, Spanish etc. Society tends to settle towards and accept a status quo along national lines, with conflicts mostly arising along disputed or "óverlap" areas with periodic drift based on social pressure or economic imbalances between societies.
The challenge in a future society will be the permanent elimination of disputed areas, or a change in the "global Governance" system so that there is no longer a need for conflict between different nations, language groups,religious denominations or power hungry leaderships.
One way of dealing with such a problem is to create a FEDERAL UNION OF ALL NATIONS under a new internationally accepted Economic System of a SINGLE ECONOMIC CURRENCY UNIT.
The USA is a federal system of a number of self-governed States that operate under a common currency (the US $) with a common national framework of laws and individual rights. The old USSR was also a "Federation" of different Socialist States operating under a common currency (the Ruble). The Eurozone represents a number of culturally different nations under a common currency (the Euro). China which represents say 20% of the global population, consisting of a number of geographic regions, has the common currency of the Yuan. India also represents about 15% of the world population, consisting also of a number of regions using a common currency unit (Rupee).
It is therefore conceivable that if the above five monetary regions decided to adopt a common currency,representing say 60% of the world's geographic area and population desity,it would be very easy to convert the remainder of hundreds of currencies around the world into a SINGLE WORLD MONEY UNIT, under a common framework of Criminal, Civil and Resource Administration Policy System, using a "FEDERAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM" WITH COMMON OBJECTIVES as identified in earlier comments of this Blogger site.
WHAT WOULD BE THE PRO'S AND CONS OF A COMMON MONETARY WORLD UNIT? WHAT WOULD BE THE PRACTICAL DIFFICULTIES AND HOW COULD THIS IMPROVE THE OVERALL WELL BEING OF THE HUMAN RACE?
...WATCH THIS SPACE...
Obvious Advantages would be:
1. Arbitrage as a form of Financial gambling would be eliminated and a single entity would not be able to create upheavals or 'runs'on a currency such as the Soros attack on the Pound Sterling which almost crippled the British Economy a few years ago. The hundreds of financial gurus glued to a computer screen playing (gambling)with other peoples money would disappear and those skills used to make long term commitments / investments in regional stockmarkets whose primary aim is to raise investment or seed capital to create new employment, not to gamble on the daily lives of the working class for short term financial gain of a minority.
2. Countries ór regions would be unable to 'dump'exports due to artificially low currencies (eg as China has been accused of with underpricing of merchandise).
3. Imported Inflation would disappear in countries with devalueing currencies.
4. Hyper-inflation in badly managed economies such as Zimbabwe will become a thing of the past as the printing of "Monkey Money'will no longer be an available option. (At the time of writing, Zimbabwe had just announced the printing of a 10-million Zim Dollar Note equivalent to about US 50-cents in the black market).
5. Allocation of Regional Capital Infrastructure Budgets to improve the Civil Engineering and Infrastructure of each urbanised region on Earth will create employment and open up global opportunities for 'knowledge'companies without monetary risk of exchange rate or a corrupt government.
6. There would be no necessity for a "gold standard" or a Fort Knox full of Gold Bars just to support a currency or provide confidence in a particular economy. The role of gold, platimum, diamonds, etc will be limited to jewellery and technological demand.
7. Money supply would not have to be a balancing game between countries or financial periods. A steady State money supply growth would be dictated Only by Capital and Social Expenditure under a common Federal Administration. That will be the only way money should be created, and individual governments would be unable just to print money for political or military agendas.
Created: 20/01/2008 -Peter V
EDUCATION CONTENT & METHODS
Education is the foundation of a society both in terms of the personal value and knowledge system as well as the common doctrine and principles that a community needs to develop and follow.
The challenge will be to determine educational content that may be based on the following aspects:
1)An internationally accepted content affecting the practical issues in life which should include environmental awareness, scientific and technical principles based on mathematics and the universal laws of existence (physics, chemistry, Bio-sciences, and basic understanding of geography and the universe according to the most recent discoveries)
2) Cultural Knowledge adapted to the specific community and belief system which could include music, religion, arts and recreation
3) Systems knowledge covering economics,commercial & legal principles, work ethic, contribution to society, etc
4) physical and Mental health awareness and responsibilitie towards self and society.
5) Working towards common society objectives of growth,harmony and happiness.
The specific content and methods of teaching need to be formulated and debated to achieve an internationally aceptable norm.
Peter V - 15/3/2008
EDUCATION CONTENT & METHODS
Education is the foundation of a society both in terms of the personal value and knowledge system as well as the common doctrine and principles that a community needs to develop and follow.
The challenge will be to determine educational content that may be based on the following aspects:
1)An internationally accepted content affecting the practical issues in life which should include environmental awareness, scientific and technical principles based on mathematics and the universal laws of existence (physics, chemistry, Bio-sciences, and basic understanding of geography and the universe according to the most recent discoveries)
2) Cultural Knowledge adapted to the specific community and belief system which could include music, religion, arts and recreation
3) Systems knowledge covering economics,commercial & legal principles, work ethic, contribution to society, etc
4) physical and Mental health awareness and responsibilitie towards self and society.
5) Working towards common society objectives of growth,harmony and happiness.
The specific content and methods of teaching need to be formulated and debated to achieve an internationally aceptable norm.
Peter V - 15/3/2008
I am currently trying to work out THE ROOT CAUSE of problems in our current global society.
.Causes of Poverty?
.Causes of Discontent?
.Causes of Conflict
.Causes of Mass Dissatisfaction?
.Causes of unpreparedness for Natural Disasters?
.Causes of extremes in quality of life?
.Causes of Bad Government / Governance / Leadership?
.Causes of Greed?
Peter V
30 May 2008
IDEAS TO BOOST OR RE-DISTRIBUTE TAXATION INCOME FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR WHILST ENCOURAGING PRIVATE INVESTMENT:
GROUND RULE 1 HYPOTHESIS: No private investor (person or corporate) will invest in assets or a new business enterprise, expansion, new capital formation, etc unless:
(a)there is real long term positive return from such investment (ie that exceeds projected inflation rate in the income producing region).
(b)The IRR or Net Present Value of such investment exceeds that of a risk free interest rate return if such investment was placed on a call deposit.
(c)Any taxation policy must encourage private investment that creates new employment opportunities and assists the creation of new wealth without increasing prices (inflation) through encouragement of arbitrage or speculation.
POSSIBLE SOLUTION: Corporation Taxes to be multi-tiered, linked to the % Return on Net Assets in use of a corporation. As the profitability after standard / nominal income taxes of a corporation increase (when expressed as a percentage of capital employed), there must be an increasing secondary taxation mechanism that shares in the 'super profits' of private industry. AS LONG AS THERE IS REAL POSITIVE RETURN ON INVESTMENT THAT IS BETTER THAN REAL MONEY INTEREST RATES, SUCH EMPLOYMENT CREATING PRIVATE INVESTMENT WILL STILL BE THE PREFERRED OPTION FOR THE OWNERS OF CAPITAL.
As an example, a base line may be established that if the ROI or After Nominal Tax Return on Net Capital employed of a Corporate Body does not exceed two percentage points above ruling Real interest rates for a financial period, NO SECONDARY OR SUPERTAXES APPLY. Above that threshold, a sliding increasing additional taxation component kicks in, which in part will start penalising companies for global oligopolistic price manipulations and the resulting super profits (Oil and Commodity industries, monopolistic intellectual property owners that over-exploitmarkets due to the security of high boundaries to entry, etc. This will also limit exploitation of labour or underproviding towards employee benefits or quality of working life ( Companies may find that in order to reduce additional tax payments as super-profits, they may instead invest these in new assets to increase their asset base and subsequent lowering of their effective ROI during favourable economic periods, with spin offs to Corporate Social Responsibility projects in their communities).
WHAT HAPPENS TO SUCH SECONDARY / SUPERTAX REVENUE INCOME?
All such Additional Income Should be treated as windfall input to the fiscus,and should be used for infrastructure development projects that create new employment and improves quality of life of citizens (eg Water, Roads, Hospitals & Schools.)
The concept of Secondary / Supertaxes may further be used to reduce the Taxburden Contribution of the lower
income earners. They could also create COMPULSORY Unemployment Community Training Centres for the unemployed portions of the population, which may further help to keep masses off the streets, reduce crime and provide them with new tools to become employable. At worst, such unemployment centrs may be used as temporary labour brokers or to engage in local health & environmental improvement projects.
HOW DO WE PREVENT FLIGHT OF CAPITAL IF SUCH SECONDARY / SUPERTAXATION IS INTRODUCED?
Such concept will only be successful if it is applied GLOBALLY, under auspices of international supervision such as the World Bank, IMF or the UNITED NATIONS. It is not a project to be controlled and manipulated by Monetary Interest Groups, but rather by RATIONAL TECHNO-ECONOMIC INTERNATIONAL PANEL/s based on sound economic principles with ultimate aim the improved quality of life of the human race as a whole.
PETER V : 10 JUNE 2008
CRITERIA FOR DESIGNING A FUTURE IDEAL SYSTEM OF GOVERNANCE
1.Ownership of Capital and Property by individuals or Corporate Bodies must be protected
2.Speculative Gain vs Investment Gains must be regulated so as to avoid 'financial gambling'
3.Superprofits due to market manipulation need to be either penalised or channelled to employment creation investments
4.Free Markets should be allowed to operate but in an environment where Raising of Capital on a Stock-Exchange is for employment creating long term investments and penalties should exist for early exit from share investments to reduce speculative violent conomic cycles
5.In a systemetic and gradual way, a single world currency should emerge from the incorporation of a composite basket of all currencies. As an example, the Euro unification of currencies may be considered as a vehicle to merge all other currencies or currency groupings. This will eliminate currency speculation as well as simplify world trade through the total elimination of Tarriffs & Import Duties and will be an efficient economic way to eliminate dumping from one region to the other. Economic efficiencies will arise by production of goods and services in the most cost effective way, taking skills, labour costs and transport efficiencies into account.
6. Governments of individual States will have to define a role according to Business Criteria such as the Key Performance Areas and Standards expected. There should be a minimum education, experience and slkills level, with election to power dictated by the Man Specifications and individual fitas per recognised HR Management Principles. Performance appraisals rather than re-election periods should be considered to change non-performing personnel.
7. Monetary Theory and the Creation of Money needs to be re-considered so as to minimise interest rate manipulation, and maximise allocation of Public Enmterpriseinvestments for the upgrade of Regions (Infrastructure, Water,Electricity, Road & Rail Networks, Communications, Disaster Management, etc)
8. Free Education for all to the level of individual talent and competence.
9 Elimination of Traditional defense forces and Creation of new integrated Security Systems for Micro & Macro Deployment under international controlling structures.
10. Provision of high quality Health Service for all subsidised by the Regional Administrations.
Peter V
6 July 2008
LESSONS FROM THE CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISIS IN THE ESTABLISHED GLOBAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS (AUGUST 2008 - DECEMBER 2008)
What went wrong? The Economic Systems of the world markets were supposed to be in manageable equilibrium and self correct aberations. However, we observed the following:
-China became the world's super consumer and super producer of ultra cheap manufactured goods in recent years.
-The Olympic Games preparations propelled China's internal development and Capital Spend on infrastructural and Construction projects to unprecedented levels.
-The price of oil reached record levels of $150/barrel late 2007 and early 2008.This made oil producer corporates and countries super-wealthy.
-The éver-increasing price of oil over the past 3 years created an expectation of 'certainty' in speculators of resources.This, together with the 'China Demand Syndrome' created an unprecedented run on commodity prices through re-alignment of speculator funds into commodities. This led to Copper Prices increasing from $2500/Ton to $8500/Ton over a 3 year period.
-The Oil Producing Nations were receiving such windfall profits that had no alternative but to ínvest'in funds and a uplifting of their local infrastructures and developments in mega construction projects - Dubai the leading example of Palm Island, etc.
The result was an accelerating need for resources to develop projects of doubtful economic return, which had a cummulative effect on resource demand and pricing.
-There was too much money manipulated by the few super-winners looking for investment opportunities. This led to Stockmarkets around the world reaching record levels, partly for speculation, and partly as alternative portfolio investments. The historical success of the stock-exchange as a 'safe parking lot' with super-real returns in the short term fueled additional speculating fever, so even those with no personal funds, used the global euphoria for leveraged investments, ie they borrowed money to re-invest in alternative stocks and instruments sor quick returns, on the basis of 'secure investments'. Property in the USA and Developed countries thus received 'unprecedented' value on which bonds and loans were securitised to mop up the 'virtual'profits generated by a global run on prices and 'speculating profits'.
The bubble burst when the American Banking System started collapsing and the US Government bailed out initially banks and subsequently the Motor Industry. The US Government started printing money and guarantees to securitise large corporates on brink of total collapse.Repercussions had a primary knock-on effect in all other Developed world countries, and a lagging effect on Developing Countries through rationalisation of mining and primary resourse facilities.
-Projects around the world based on expectation of continuing super profits and speculation are being stopped, delayed or abandoned.
THE RESULT:
The current Socio-Economoc Systems did not prevent global economic turbulance, with the result thateveryone, especially the commom Mddle and Working Classes are facing unemployment and uncertainty for their olden age retirement support. The future generation has to adapt and survive form a dessimated and partly collapsed baseline. Instead of us helping our progeny with improved standards of living to our own, we seem to have failed them. wE ARE PROMOTING AN UN-UMPLOYED / UNEMPLOYABLE SOCIETY WITH THE HIGH MONETARY EXPECTATIONS THAT WE ARE ACUSTOMED BASED ON 'VIRTUAL PROFITS'AND 'FALSE SUCCESS'.
WHAT CAN WE LEARN? SHOULD WE RE-EXAMINE OUR SYSTEMS AND GO BACK TO BASICS?
peter V. 16/12/2008 - Johannesburg
SOME NEW DIRECTIONS IN ECONOMIC CONCEPTS?
Tim Harford in his 2006 bestseller edition of 'The Undercover Economist' has made a number of comments and observations that should be considered in developing future models for global applications towards a better quality of life. Highlights which may apply are:
1) Medical Care systems should be modelled around the Singapore or UK concepts, where general medical care is available to all but dread/ abnormal conditions may be covered by optional health insurance
2) The Stock Exchange follows 'herd mentality' that pushes the Price/Earnings (P/E) to unsustainable levels purely on the expectation that share price will provide the returns to 'speculators / investors / fund managers' instead of the fundamental return based on production earnings of an equity.He shows that average P/E ratios between 1881 and 2001 were historically at 16, but prior to the 1929 crash greed pushed the ratio to 35, and prior to the dot.com crash of 2002 these ratios had reached 45.
The above supports my view that a stock-exchange should not be used for short term speculation, but rather for long term commitment of funds in order to receive returns based on corporate formation and investments in employment creating opportunities. Any element of greed-return should somehow be penalised (secondary tax?) in order to redirect focus on productive investments and not speculation or run-based earnings.
The existence of currency speculation is a further problem with destabilisation od local economies for the benefit of 'parasitic traders'who do not contribute to the employment, production or welfare of our society. A single Global monetary Unit will therefore lead to the elimination of this type of 'gambling', with further advantages in elimination of World trade barriers if properly designed and defined. We will then perhaps see equalisation of compensation for equal labour or intellectual input by individuals, irrespective whether it is China, South Africa or USA. - It will only be the labour rate regional differnces that will provide competitiveness, subject to a humanitarian- set minimum toward a living wage, ( E.G a builder in Chinaa, in USA and in S. Africa will still earn a EURO wage rate per hour subject to a defined lower minimum, but an undefined maximum rate depending on scarcity of regional supply.
Betting and Speculation will still be available for the public or investment funds, but this should be restricted on:
a)scarcity of geographical location (eg a sea-front prime strip vs the cost of an equivalent land in the dwesert of the Kalahari)
b)Individual gambling preferences (Casinos, Races, Betting, Lotteries) will still be available, but these will depend on local individual options and are unlikely to affect global economic disruptions.
c)Scarcity of commodities may lead to price abnormalities, but abnormal profits made by producers or traders can be modulated through ' secondary super-profit taxation' methods, that consider re-investments in productive capacity as a deduction .
Peter V
Cape Town
24 December 2008
HOW TO ASSIST POOR REGIONS TOWARDS A RENAISSANCE IN A NEW ECONOMIC WORLD RESTRUCTURE MODEL
It has been estimated that the total GDP of most Sub-Saharan African countries are equivalent to that of Belgium...Yet each of these countries have their own individual currencies and financial management systems, armies, medical facilities and education resources, international trading status, and of course nationally elected officials and Governments of variable skill, education level, capability or resources and hence effectiveness.
How can these 'Davids' of the world be ever able to compete with the global golliaths such as USA, China, Europe or any of the developing countries. The playing fields are not level, and that is the primary reason of the poverty and low standard of living of the majority of these electorates. THEY NEED HELP and a new assisted socio-economic development system to get them out of the quagmire towards humane living conditions. WHAT IF?......
1. Under the auspices of a body such as The World Bank or the UN, all smaller countries and their currencies should be GROUPED into Economic Unit Zones and seconded to the economy of the closest Super- Region ( Eg Middle East & Africa to the Euro-Zone, Central America to the USA, South America to Japan, etc ). All currencies of the countries covered in each ECONOMIC UNIT ZONE will converge to the single currency of the Super- Region ( Eg Euro, US Dollar, Japanese Yen) and all economic activity will take place in that denominated currency, until the Future Moment when all Super-Regions will converge to a Single World Currency Unit.
2. The Super-Region will take over the Financial Management of each country and will introduce administration systems in line with international norms that essures audit trails, and stamp out corruption at the highest level. Annual Budget Plans produced and followed according to the regional needs and objectives.The individual countries no longer print money, and projects required for infrastructure development, Health and Education are given Priority, in line with Regional Strategic Objectives to develop resources and Rural Productivity.
3. All Civil Legislation is replaced with the Laws of the Super Region which coincides with internationally laid out constitution to protect property and the individual. The administration red tape to create small businesses must be simplified, and entrepreneurship assisted in order to graduate employment from single person entities to Small Business productive units.
4. The Rule of Law needs to be educated, respected and enforced no longer by rule of gun and dictator, but by a civil defence security force / policing system.
5. All Trade Barriers between the individual countries and the Super-Region must disappear, thus leading to extended Free Trade Zones
6. Labour reforms must ensure that minimum wage rates apply, and 'sweatshop labour camps' are discouraged.
7. An objective of such model should be the encouragement of rural development so that people prefer to return to the land, and reduce squatter camp / shanty town pressures on cities. Threfore infrastructural projects to encourage sustainable Agriculture, Resource extraction and beneficiation at a local level as well as produce processing home industries and improved accommodation and schooling must receive priority attention.
8. By abolishing the printing of local monkey-money, inflationary pressures will reduce and stabilise, (Zimbabwe experience?). By applying the ule of law and property title ownwrship, the financial banking system will start rolling on the basis of securitised leveraging for trained landowners to obtain equipment for individual or co-operative use, seed and fertiliser products. There has to be a push to move away from subsistence to small business style agrarian business concerns (Why should Africa not provide the ORGANIC FOOD REQUIREMENTS of EUROPE in Winter? - Given the right support, Chicken, Meat and Dairy production could easily transform Africa into a Farming Super-producer, getting paid in Euro's, without Trade Barriers to export throughout the new super-region, under high quality skills supervision, training and expertise privided by their European Knowledge Centres?
9. Improved Infrastructure, reduction of poverty, rural development and improved security will lead to ythe expansion of new businesses - Tourism, Alternative Energy production, Organic and Green food self-sufficiency, Aquafarming and Extended Tropical Fruit production... The possibilities are endless....
CULTURAL HABITS AFFECTING WEALTH & POVERTY OF INDIVIDUALS & SOCIAL GROUPS
This morning was New Years Day, and I spent the afternoon on the Blouberg Strand (Beach) a few km North of Cape Town harbour. It is an upper Middle Class holiday spot, primarily frequented by families and kite-surfing professionals. Today was somewhat different and unusual. There were a number of 16 seater Black Taxis that brought a few hundred young adults and some children from the nearby townships. The females and the children were enjoying the sun and the sheltered cold waters of the Blue Peter 'lagoon'like all other families, looking relaxed and happy in their family groups. However, the young males which I estimated to be 20 - 30 years old, in their prime of their youth were wandering around under the obvious influence of some substance abuse (probably alcohol), they were loud, stopping to talk and mostly annoying the other sunbathers, openly drinking alcohol despite local bylaws that have proclaimed the possession and alcohol illegal on the W. Cape Beaches. One very happy chap posed with my son for photos with the Sea and Table Mountain as a stunning background, and readily announced his name as Cedric.
It was a festive and beautiful afternoon, except that Taxis rode around the nearby parking lot, music blaring form loudspeakers with distasteful music, without consideration for the peace and tranquility of the thousands of families anjoying the most serene natural beauty of the area. Plice patrols were called to take away a detoxicated youngster from the sea as he was making a public nuisance of himself. later on police came to confiscate a load of alcoholic drinks and what seemed a half finished bottle of brandy, that were buried in the sand near a group of black youths, who quickly scattered away, but returned a few minutes after the police raid to unbury four bottles of alcoholic beverages, pour them into flasks and proceed to gulp them down before they could be re-discovered. As we decided to leave for a drive to the yacht club, we saw a large crowd gathering nearby. We made our way to our car through double and triple parked Taxis, all open and each one competing with the next for the loudest music. On the way to the beach showers to wash off excess sand from our feet, we had to queue a few minutes in line for one of the three water points. As my son and I reached our turn to the tap, we were quickly pushed aside by two young mothers who proceeded to wash and fill bottles of water without even an excuse.
We had a beautiful drive to the yacht harbour in Table Bay, but unfortunately heard on the local news that a 20 year old man had just died at Blouberg, coinciding with the big crowd we had seen earlier on that beach. It was sad.
The observations and questions that a holidaying tourist like myself would make from a short afternoon on the beach on New Year's Day is the following:
- Taxis originating from poor black areas played music loudly in a cacophony of sounds without any respect for the thousands of family people wanting to enjoy the tranquility of the beach
-The same taxis did not abide with the rules of the road, and were parked illegally all over the area
-It was only the black male youngsters that appeared intoxicated and had no respect for other sunbathers, yet the ladies and the children were very well behaved
-Why did some people intentionally break the rules of law by bringing and consuming alcohol in forbidden areas, and even took the chjance of being arrested in order to cosume the little alcohol left hidden in the sand? There was obviously no respest or fear for the law.
-Does poverty cause youth to turn to alcohol or is it bad habits and substance abuse that creates bad habits that ultimately are counter-productive to society and hence perpetuate poverty?
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT BAD SOCIAL HABITS AND BEHAVIOUR LEAD TO DISRESPECT FOR ONESELF, THE LAW OR THE FELLOW CITIZEN AND ULTIMATELY LEAD OR PROPAGATE POVERTY?
IS IT POSSIBLE THAT FAMILY VALUES ARE NOT TAUGHT FROM A YOUNG AGE DUE TO DYSFUNCTIONAL FAMILY UNITS?
WHAT CAN THE ESTABLISHED GOVERNMENTS DO TO BRING ABOUT A RADICAL CHANGE IN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR AT THE ROOT LEVELS OF OUR SOCIETY ? IS THIS NOT WHAT RELIGIOUS GROUPS OF WHATEVER DENOMINATION OR CREED BE TASKED TO ACHIEVE AS THEIR FOREMOST PRIORITY IN CREATING THE FABRIC OF SOCIETY?
HOW CAN A NEW VALUE SYSTEM BE EDUCATED ESPECIALLY IN DYSFUNCTIONAL COMMUNITIES TO BRING ABOUT ERADICATION OF POOR HABITS AND ASSOCIATED LOW STANDARDS OF LIVING?
WOULD THE ROUTINE OF EMPLOYMENT AND NORMALISATION OF FAMILY LIFE IN PROPER ACCOMMODATION UNITS AND NEIGHBOURHOOD SOCIAL & SPORTS CENTRES PROVIDE THE ULTIMATE SOLUTION TO A WINNING NATION VALUE SYSTEM?
IS IT PERHAPS HIV-AIDS OR THE POLYGAMOUS / EXOGENOUS HABITS OF COMMUNITIES THAT CAUSES UNWANTED PREGNANCIES AND BABIES TO BE BROUGHT UP WITHOUT THE STABILITY AND DIRECTION OF A FATHER IMAGE?
No economic model will eradicate poverty unless some of the above mentioned root causes of social mis-behaviour are properly addressed by community and religious leaders.
Peter V
1/1/2009 - From Cape Town
CORPORATE MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS - LIMITS TO ACCEPTABLE CORPORATE BEHAVIOUR
On 26th January, 2009, I was watching CNN Business and the Quest Report from the Davos Conference of the most influential persons on the planet, discussing global solutions solutions on the way forward.
One of the comments that stuck with me from that programme was that part of the current global turmoil was caused by a small number of greedy speculators and hedge funds, who with the assistance of the information technology, had turned investing into speculative gambling that was best suited to Las Vegas, and was unacceptable. This confirmed my earlier proposals on this blogspot that there should be a fundamental change or shift in a future free market economic system from speculation to bona fide investment for expansion and job creation.
Just earlier that day, there was a live crossing by the local radio station (Radio 702) to Abu Dabi for an interview with a Mr Rodgers, the founder of a Global Fund who also was Mr Soros's coleague a few years earlier involved in the toppling of the British Pound Sterling. He was very much against any economic packages by the US president Obama to the banking or Motor Industry as he feared that only a few preferential and well connected persons and corporations would benefit rather than the 300 mio of the remainder of the US population.
Yet, the same day, it was announced on CNN that Pfizer was buying out another pharmaceutical giant for US $64-billion with an effective loss of 10 000 jobs through rationalised operations.
IS THIS SOCIALLY OR ECONOMICALLY ACCEPTABLE CORPORATE BEHAVIOUR? I believe that in a future society, powerful economic forces and Industries with "connectivity' extreme specialisation & exclusive information or High Barriers to Entry, create oligopolistic opporunities to benefit unfairly through effectively anti-competitive behaviour. I cannot agree to the global waves of Mergers and Aquisitions where the Largest Corporates with the strongest effective margins due to Scale, aquires another huge player in its sector to promote further benefits of scale. Although it may be described as a move to increased competitiveness, the realities remain that many loyal and unfortunate employees are affected through rationalisations that affect our social balance. More disturbing is the fact that global giants become even larger through acquisitions, corner markets, dictate prices and higher margins or distribution channels, pressurise their weaker resourse or raw materials suppliers into unavoidable capitulation and one-sided supply contracts, and most importantly affect employment levels of entire societies wher regional rationalisation takes place. Mergers & aquisitions IS NOT INVESTING. Corporates should rather invest through grass root expansions and new employment opportunities if the markets need capacity.
WHAT IF instead of M&A's, excess funds that could not be invested by individuals or corporates for expansion projects leading to Job Creation, they had as an alternative NON-Speculative instrument such as GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE BONDS that would assist Regional governing structures under Global Supervision to improve Human Infrastructure withprojects such as Water, Sewerage, Health Facilities, Low Cost Housing, Road Networks, Schools and Green Energy? It is projects of this nature that create regional employment and consequently broader employment through the Multiplier Effect. This is what will encourage population groups to remain on their land and have an economic future rather than risking losing their families for an uncertain future on an overloaded fishing boat across the Med.....
WHY IS TAX-COLLECTION PRACTICES SUB-OPTIMAL FOR A STEADY STATE ECONOMY?
Consider how taxes are generated by Governments:
1. During booming economic cycles, tax receipts by the fiscus are at high relative levels because:
- Companies make higher profits due to better business out there
- VAT revenue based taxes are higher due to the higher spending levels
- Individual employment is at a high level, so taxes collected from personal taxes are higher due to the larger number of individuals employed
- Companies in general receive higher margins for their goods and services, as there is higher demand, hence better prospects to charge high prices (supply - demand elasticity theoty applies)
-There is more pressure on capacity hence artificial cornering of markets (eg resources, commodities in oligopolistic industries. This produces super-profits for advantaged producers or traders, which generate more taxes than average to the fiscus.
- International trade volumes increase due to the expansionary forces of a boom commodity, with higher propensity to import (especially by developing nations to increase capacity and luxury goods markets). Exporting volumes also increase as there is more dispensable income by client regions.Tax revenues therefore also increase due to import duties & tariff structures.
THE RESULT DURING BOOMING ECONOMIC CYCLES: Governments generate substantially higher Tax Revenues. And here is the problem; Governments have more money to spend on admin and infrastructure during boom times. THIS CREATES ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON A BOOMING ECONOMY, WHICH LEADS TO FURTHER OVERHEATING and associated pressure on resources and prices, with inflationary consequences. In other words, during good economic times, revenues generated by taxation are counter-productive as they help 'throw more oil into the fire". Reserve banks panic due to this overheating economy, and quickly proceed to artificially raise INTEREST RATES in the hope that the economy cools off.
2.DURING RECESSIONARY CYCLES, the opposite occurs: Less revenues are generated through taxes due to lower corporate profitability, lower individual employment levels and lowered imp[ort taxes & duties because of suppressed international trade levels.
THE RESULT is that an already straining economy during recessionary times, is further stressed by tax collections causing sash flow problems and survival mode retrenchments by corporates. The Governments again panic, and Reserve Banks start to ARTIFICIALLY REDUCE PRIME INTEREST RATES in order to encourage investment and restart the economy. Governments further realise they have to spend NEW MONEY that they no longer generate through taxes to encourage & stimulate low economic activity and to restart confidence. They therefore go out to BORROW money in the markets by issueing GOVERNMENT BONDS in order to proceed with projects. This puts further pressures on money supply, reduces liquidity available for investments by the private sector which now gets diverted to secure bonds and may in fact lead to increase in real interst rates or devaluation of their country currencies.
3. OBSERVATIONS:
The tax collection cycles that are customary tend to overheat an economy during an upswing whilst contributing to compounding recessionary forces during economic downswings. A solution needs to be worked out where tax collections do not affect the economicstability of countries or regions.
WHAT IF:
a) ALL TAX COLLECTIONS WERE ABOLISHED,
b) RESERVE BANKS STOPPED DICTATING INTEREST RATE LEVELS TO CONTROL ECONOMIES
c) Governments only controlled the Money supply by "CREATING" a predetermined amount of money for their region according to a Global Allocation Model agreed to mathemetically according to a number of factors sucg as:
- Current Population Level
- Square km Area administered
- Level of Public Health and Infrastructure required to bring the quality of life and access to markets to acceptable levels
- Level of Administrative Expenses required to manage the different Ministries and Departments of that country
- Relative cost of living expressed in a common denominator currency such as US $ or Euro.
- Creation of Wealth in that country will then be composed of a govenrment NEW MONEY input ( NOT TAX COLLECTION ), as well as the growth of the free economy. This free economy no longer has to pay taxes, can reduce the non-productive burden of asset protection from the Receiver, and obtain improved business opportunities from the new infrastructural developments in an environment where economic cycles are coushioned at all times by constant central bank inputs and no interest rate interventions.
4. THE CHALLENGE
To realise that up to now, self interest of groups and individuals, compounded by emotional decision making in an economic environment that rewards or punishes based on FINANCIAL GAMBLING of the GLOBAL FINANCIAL CONTROLLERS or PLAYERS. (Equities & Hedge Funds, Currencies, Oligopolistic commodity speculation, etc).
Any New system to get to a Better socially acceptable FREE MARKET ECONOMY, WHERE INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS TO PROPERTY OWNERSHIP ARE SECURED & PROTECTED AND FORM THE BASIS OF A NEW ECONOMIC FABRIC, will have to be based on:
-TOTAL commitment to Logic and Rational Decisionmaking process to redesign our global village.
-TOTAL elimination of subjective Emotional influences that could be due to historical, uninformed or uneducated / inexperience reasons.
- TOTALcommitment of Co-Operation of all political & religious establishments globally.
-TOTAL elimination of self interest of inividuals and power lobbies from any decision making that would result in a better global society.
-TOTAL respect for the individual human colleague we happen to co-habitate the planet during this particular point of history, time and universal position.
-TOTAL commitment to a future improved world model, free of poverty and desease, with employment for all, attraction to the land through breakthrough infrastructure development in rural areas to sustain, retain and return everyone to their roots if they so wish, with minimal unemployment caused by violent economic cycles, in a Global Free Trade System without any taxes or beuraucratic controls.
Peter V - 1 February 2009
from Johannesburg, South Africa
NOVEL IDEAS FOR FURTHER EXPLORATION TO ASSIST IN REDUCTION OF POVERTY
1.MASS TRANSPORTATION GOERNMENT COUPONS
In the developing world where public transportation infrastructures are not well developed, lower income groups make use of Mini Bus Taxis (eg 16 Seater Japanese minivans). The problems associated with this Taxi idustry are:
(a) Because it is a cash business, tax evasion by the taxi owners is the norm
(b) Taxi drivers become 'slave labourers of the Taxi Bosses'unless they are owner-drivers. This puts pressure on these drivers to break all rules of the road to get more trips and overloading in order to maximise their commissions or to pocket some excess cash for themselves.
(c) The public at large gets no benefit from government subsidisation of the mass transport industry. Unless they are lucky enough to reside along a Municipal or established Train route, all their daily necessary transport costs are paid out of their meagre after tax earnings. This problem becomes even more pronounced outside major urban areas of Africa, where public transport infrastructure simply does not exist. This forces people to find a 'home'anywhere near the urban areas to reduce the cost and the time to work (assuming they are lucky enough to have a job), even if they have to live in a squatter camp in a home made of cardboard and maybe a Tin Roof. This leads to major Social and Family problems, as families become migrants in their own country..
A POSSIBLE SOLUTION: NON CASH, PRE-PAID TRANSPORT COUPONS WHERE THE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDISES A PORTION ( eg 50% or 25%). These coupons should become ovailable just like pre-paid air-time, and in the future even cell-phone transacted. Thus the Taxi Industry will convert from a CASH Business with no taxation discipline to a fully controlled Revenue and Statistically controllable Mass Industry. The coupons would only be redemable by a registered Taxi or individual Registered Operator in a Special Debit Bank Account, from where VAT /Sales Taxes, PAYE, and Total Revenue Income Statements will become available for Each Registered Taxi.
This System will
(a) Assist the public commuter through government subsidisation
(b) Will generate revenue for the Tax Regime where it previously was impossible to police
(c)It may reduce Road Abuse by Taxi Drivers, as there will no longer be a cash component for their pocket and may enforce some sort of Minimum Driver Wages and Maximum Driver Hours.
(d) It will assist in the expansion of the Taxi Industry as this becomes a more regulated industry and Banks will be able to justify financing more easily on the basis of guaranteed earnings deposited into accounts...
Peter V
JHB - 11/4/2009 (Easter Day)
STARTING POINTS FOR NEW GROWTH IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC KICKSTART -
As the Industrial Revolution had the strongest influence to change the world socio-economic landscape in prevoius centuries,Green Revolution can refocus our efforts in order to create and spread a whole new social employment system to create re-newable resources and sustain the environment. The following initiatives can be adopted by the world leadership to drive people back to their land and re-gain deserts:
1) Low Tech technologies using renewable energies for de-salination of brakish / salt water.
2) Rain Water collector points from any roof structure for directed use.
3)Perma-culture to restore Desertified lands
4) Capture of Carbon Dioxide generation at source, and conversion to Hydrocarbon alternatives (eg methane) for energy or polymer production. It was stated at CNN this morning that Cement Factories contribute towards 65% of all CO2 production by converting Limestone (CaCo3) through coal 'burning fuels' into Reactive CaO and release of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere - How can we prevent this release to the atmosphere? Can we convert this or should we look at alternative chemical processes to produce CaO that is required to produce the clinker?
5) Can we develop alternatives to pump / re-direct urban organic wastes to desertified land thus enriching the soil and retaining humus in the soil - ie beneficiate our arid areas and turn them to re-habilitated areas? Encourage and construct shelters for Bird colonies to move to "trash deserts" and start new habitats from vermin to snakes to birds, with guano & excrements ceating soil beneficiation?
What if we all had to think with a green 'hat'? What are the possibilities to transform wasteland into plenti-land?
Thinking Aloud by PV.
4 OCTOBER 2009
STARTING POINTS FOR NEW GROWTH IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC KICKSTART -
As the Industrial Revolution had the strongest influence to change the world socio-economic landscape in prevoius centuries,Green Revolution can refocus our efforts in order to create and spread a whole new social employment system to create re-newable resources and sustain the environment. The following initiatives can be adopted by the world leadership to drive people back to their land and re-gain deserts:
1) Low Tech technologies using renewable energies for de-salination of brakish / salt water.
2) Rain Water collector points from any roof structure for directed use.
3)Perma-culture to restore Desertified lands
4) Capture of Carbon Dioxide generation at source, and conversion to Hydrocarbon alternatives (eg methane) for energy or polymer production. It was stated at CNN this morning that Cement Factories contribute towards 65% of all CO2 production by converting Limestone (CaCo3) through coal 'burning fuels' into Reactive CaO and release of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere - How can we prevent this release to the atmosphere? Can we convert this or should we look at alternative chemical processes to produce CaO that is required to produce the clinker?
5) Can we develop alternatives to pump / re-direct urban organic wastes to desertified land thus enriching the soil and retaining humus in the soil - ie beneficiate our arid areas and turn them to re-habilitated areas? Encourage and construct shelters for Bird colonies to move to "trash deserts" and start new habitats from vermin to snakes to birds, with guano & excrements ceating soil beneficiation?
What if we all had to think with a green 'hat'? What are the possibilities to transform wasteland into plenti-land?
Thinking Aloud by PV.
4 OCTOBER 2009
ALTERNATIVE VOTING SYSTEM - FOR UNDERDEVELOPED SOCIETIES
Traditionally, voting takes place by filling ballot papers or computer recognised inputs.
In countries with low technology levels, ballot counting involves miriad of personnel, time delays, logistical problems and allegations of cheating.
Here is an alternative method:
1. Voters qualifying according to the voters roll are dispensed with a contoured coin-size token of a given mass eg 3.3 grams each.
2. Voters go to a voting booth that has a number of sealed, prenumbered containers (ballot boxes). Each container has a photo and logo printed of the participating candidate or political party, with a single slot to receive the voting token. Each ballot box is of equal weight and identical to each other, and the tare inscription shows the nominal mass of each box in kg.
3. The voters place their single voting token in the ballot box of their choice.
4. At the end of the election period, each box is taken and placed on a simple scale, in front of all the participating candidates and witnesses.
5.The weight of each ballot box is recorded /captured on a spreadsheet.
6. The tare of the box is subtracted from the gross weight of each box to produce a net weight of tokens per box.
7. By dividing this net weight by the individual token weight (ie 3.3 grams), the number of votes per candidate is immediately computed and published as the final result.
8. The SUM Total of net weight of tokens of each ballot box per voting station gives the total token mass used in active voting. This is compared to the original mass of tokens given to a polling station, and any difference should be the remaining tokens not issued. This balance can be reconned to the actual mass of tokens remaining at the starting box of the voting process. Any difference in total weights (Starting weight minus Total Tokens cast)indicates spoilt votes. Every polling station may be issued with a known number of token dispensers of identical token mass for reconciliation purposes.
9. To prevent 'weight loading' of the ballot boxes with foreign matter, the following safeguards can be used:
a)The coin-token is not flat, but has a contoured profilr like a key-way, which can be updated with each election.
b) The bottom of the ballot boxes must be perforated to allow sand or water / liquid weight to drain through, thus avoiding 'loading'of the box by dishonest voters.
10. The verified results from each polling stations may be broadcast or transmitted to a central Voting Co-ordination center within a very short period of time.
11.No recounting or disputes may arise using such system, as the human element is partially removed from the process.
12. Such system will be very efficient, as for each 1000 voters, only 1000 tokens of 3.3 grams are used (i.e. 3.3 kg of material per 1000 voters)
13. Tokens can be re-processed, melted down or recycled for a greener alternative.
African, Asian and Latin American territories would find this method most useful (The Mugabe elections early 2009 in Zimbabwe took at least 2 weeks to finalise results, with rampant allegations from all sides of electoral fraud. What if this system was available?)
Written while I was
Thinking Aloud from Johannesburg
Peter Vangelatos
2 November 2009
Subject: VOTING SYSTEM - ENHANCEMENT
In Order to avoid double voting by the same person, the following system can be used for a token dispenser:
1. Fingerprint /. Hand biometric recognition: The voter has to sign in with his right hand say or both thumbprints on a scanner built into the Voting Station Unique dispenser. Once recognised, a token will be dispensed to the voter to proceed. If the same person tries to vote on the same dispenser, this will be blocked as invalid action, and no token to be issued.
2. ID Number of individual can be entered to register his attendance. This will automatically dispense the voting token, and preclude the same voter from voting a second time
P. Vangelatos
Johannesburg
3 November, 2009
MANAGING THE RATE OF CHANGE (I.E. SPEED or DURATION OF AN OCCURANCE)
Everything that rules our lives and social structures is related to time. Whether we consider the time available to us to live, accomplish goals, implement change, value of money, exchange rates at a point in time, value of commodities (eg LME price of Copper or Gold), recessions and upswings of economies, balancing of a budget within a time period or earning sufficient money in a time period (per hour, week or in a year).
In a manufacturing or chemical process control environment, exactly the same happens - all processes are controlled relative to one common factor - time. Whether it is dosing of a raw material input into a reactor vessel in kg/minute or whether we are managing output, wastage or profit in a particular time period in $/Quarter,time emerges as the ultimate measuring tool. The ideal aim is to attain process equilibria by striving to operate in a STEADY STATE as per design specifications. Any out of control processes or outcomes are immediately alarmed and focused upon to return the process back to normality in the shortest time. This could apply to the dosing of a raw material, the manhour input into a process, or returning a concern back to profitability...The philosophy is clear: A steady State Process with minimum of fluctuations is easier to manage and control and ultimately causes less pain of additional effort or stress of stakeholders.
If society is to enhance quality of life, we have to identify the controllable factors that cause stress and dispair and see whether we can change, re-design them or eliminate them to LIVE in an environment of STEADY STATE EQUILIBRIUM. So if a working family requires $25/month per family member to buy food say in a poor country, but that family has variable or no income in a moth, maybe above that mark some months, but much below that in another month, we create conditions for instability in that family or society, very much like in a process getting out of control. As food is the absolutely basic need for survival, what would be the options for such family?
SURVIVAL OPTIONS
-Do nothing and starve or face malnutrition; Go hunting or fishing if an option
-Get Work for pay or food if available by working addtitional hours, jobs or withmore members of the family collectively
-Get another job in another skill that provides better income. Re-train to a different level of ability (but this takes time, effort and prerequisite basic educational, literacy or skills abilities)
-Borrow money from a bank or a loanshark in the hope that it can be repaid in the future by either more borrowing or better prospects of income (if collateral or security is available such as a property or a wealthy friend /neighbour who will warrant the debt)
-Sell possessions during bad times
or pawn valuables
-Use up old savings (if any) or cash-in retirement policies (if available)
-Beg in the streets and appeal to potential 'Good Samaritans' for assistance
-Migrate to a different country, Area or suburb in hope of finding sufficient income opportunities
-Enter illegal sector by selling drgs, sex,etc.
-Do crime (robbery, theft, hijacking etc)
-Find a sponsor to look after your family (a rich uncle?)
-Join a welfare society or social / religious body that may assist
-Get governments to assistin poverty during times of need
IN CONCLUSION
WE NEED TO FIND A BETTER ECONOMIC MODEL THAT OPERATES IN A STEADY STATE ENVIRONMENT WHERE ECONOMIC VARIABILITY IS MINIMISED - AND EXPLORE CONVERGENCE OF POLITICAL & SOCIO-ECONOMIC BOOM OR BUST MODELS TOWARDS A DISCIPLINED AFFLUENCE WITH REDUCED PROBABILITY OF BASIC INCOME FLUCTUATION FOR THE UNDERPRIVILEDGED, AND WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PROVDE OPPORUNITIES FOR GAINFUL PRODUCTIVE FULL EMPLOYMENT.
We need to learn from process control models how to reduce the probability of 'out of control' situations and strive towards 'steady state' stress free existence.
Peter V
5.12.2009
STEADY STATE GOVERNANCE
To this text one can also add:
-WAR between societies or nations caused by unequal availability of welth, food, land, power or land
-VIOLENCE in society caused by stress due to economic circumstances (eg neighbourhood gangs, unemplyed or UNDER-UTILISED youth, etc.)
-GAMBLING ADDICTIONS due to the perceived opportunities of easy gain through gambling
-SUBSTANCE ABUSE in most cases created by yo-yo economic circumstances of individuals or their families, and further fuelled by formally un-employed individuals or gangs that find income in drug production and trafficking
-Propagation of ILLITERACY due to needy members of poor societies having to work, beg or find means of earning from a very early age of their life, with circumstances completely unconducive to further literacy or employable skills.
Our thinking therefore has to focus on new philosophies in running our global village to reduce both the frequencies and amplitudes of economic fortunes of civilises societies. Such steady state convergence will probably emerge out of the creation of circumstances to ELEVATE DISADVANTAGED NATIONS AND SOCIETIES , without disturbing the motivation and eagerness of the advantaged societies for innovation and wealth .
WHAT IF? we could examine ways to do this by changing:
- The way Governments operate and create of Money
- The Monetary units to a single world currency to equalise world trade
- The formation and trading of Private Capital
- The Taxation System to one of ALL INCOME CREATION BY PRIVATE ENTERPRISE is AFTER-TAX Income
- Border Restrictions on ALL TRADE and Import Taxes to be eliminated
- Land Policies to get People back to the Land - Societies to be more directly involved in environmental employment such as Water and Resource Preservation, Green Projects
- Create Global money allocation systems instead of individual governments printing money. Allocate Global money through Infrastructural Spend (Roads & Rail Networks, Hospitals & Health Research, Water & Waste projects,Protection from Climate Threats, relocation development and social housing infrastructure, etc.) For example, poor squatter societies that live along polluted river banks, railway lines etc will never upgrade their social conditions or opportunities in life unless there is real systematic intervention of a new political thought process.
- Other projects promoting healthy social routines and habits ( eg sports, cultural, benevolent activities, Hospices for the sick (eg Aids sufferers & orphans, )
- New thinking in Schooling and child upbringing.
Peter V
5.12.2009
IS TAXATION ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL OR IMPARTIAL METHOD OF FINANCING A REGION OR COUNTRY?
The traditional adopted models for fiscal policy setting by governments are based on balancing an annual budget. This budget relies on either using the income created by taxes, or borrowing by Governments from the Capital Markets through issuing of Bonds. (Or in many cases simply printing money without financial basis.)
There is need to question this tradition which has a number of faults when examined at the limits. For example:
(a) Generation of Taxes depends on primarily:
- The profitability of Private Enterprise (% Corporate Tax)
-The VAT (Value Added Tax) or GST (Government Sales Taxes) imposed on total Gross Sales of Private Enterprise in that country
- The Personal Income Tax of registered taxpayers ( with a Marginal Rate Scale depending on deemed Income level of the individual)
-Capital Gains Tax upon disposal of Assets (usually of low importance to the total fiscus)
-Duties and Import Taxes based on declared values of trade crossing a political border.
-Other Taxes (inheritance, duties on luxury items & alcohol,National & Regional License income,Land Assessment Rates, etc)
Assume a hypothetical region that consists only of wealthy land owners and capitalists who DO NOT EARN AN INCOME but simply sell offportions of their assets when they require money (eg sell some land, appartment or stock held in a company. These individuals or companies could in theory have ZERO income to declare for normal marginal taxation (corporate or individual), but their capital wealth may keep on accummulating as the value of their portfolio of asets increases. Also, they will only pay CAPITAL GAINS TAX which is usually a very small % of the realised gains and which could be easily manipulated. Thus a small country of rich individuals may generate very littly Income Tax for the fiscus if the inhabitants or Cororates only show Capital Gain instead of Income. How does a country with such profile of income tax generation avoid getting into deficit? Is it realistic? They would be at the mercy of Capital Owners and Rating Institutions to get financing at an exagerated rate.
What if Regional Governing Authorities had an alternative system of financing? Without Taxes being the base but rather the Administration Costs of Managing the Region and Provision of Infrastructure and Essential Services?
b) FREE TRADE AND GLOBAL MONETARY UNIT (GMU)
If there is absolute free trade, there is no income generation for governments (for commodities entering political borders). Then Taxation becomes irrelevant and protection will be self imposed by the absence of arbitrage and possibility of cross border dumping of merchandise.
c) CONSUMPTION TAX
If an alternative financing system to taxation was the norm, the inflationary pressures of consumption tax could be eliminated. There would be no need for tax policing, and unproductive resources could be eliminated or re-deployed thus reducing cost of Governance. THre would also be a better competitive pricing system between traders, as the VAT evaders would no longer be able to sustain themselves.
In the next Chapters, alternatives to Taxation Systems will be explored, in ordder to yield a future ideal system of minimal controls and intervention, reduced bureaucracy and lower cost Regional Admin Systems
PETER V.
2 JANUARY 2010
from Cape Town, SA
WILD IDEAS - GREENING OF THE DESERTS BY COUNTERACTING GLOBAL WARMING - PART 1
One of the threats of global warming which could be with us for centuries is the melting of the ice caps and glaciers and subsequent rise of sea levels. At the same time, potable water may become scarce due to population pressures as well as changes in precipitation patterns.
A mega-solution could be the following:
1.Pump seawater to the deserts around the world using green energy (solar, wind, wave generation). Any natural depression could be utilised to create new Saline Water Wetlands or lakes.
2.Aim to create large inland seawater lakes in the deserts. The excess water from polar ice melts could thus be diverted to desert lands, thus reducing the effect of a catastrophic rise in sea level
3.When saline water penetrates a sandy soil, it creates a water table beneath it. Further,the soil may be considered as a natural micro pore filter, which holds back disolved salts and eventually releases desalinated water into underground aquifers after a critical distance, dependant on soil stratification and conditions. It is thus possible that Salt water may provide an underground reserve of new desalinated water, in areas where it is most needed. This desalinated water resource may be drawn above ground by pumping using wind or solar energy for hydroponic irrigation and de-centralised human settlement.
4. The inland Sea Water wetlands will start a New Greening Marine Environment in the deserts, and even lead to introduction of marine food species (fish, prawns, etc)and aquaculture. Alternatively, algae cultivation may thrive for bio-diesel purposes in areas where economies of scale may dictate. Bird-life and a new biome is entirely possible to turn desert land into environmental havens of diversity, and bring back life and re-distribute human settlement back to the previously un-inhabited land.
5. The new water surface area of Desert Sea Lakes at the hot and dry locations of the earth will provide new evaporation resource. Moisture loading into the atmosphere for the formation of New Clouds and precipitation back to earth is equivalent to distillation of Sea water in a massive scale to provide fresh pure water, which may be expected to condense in the adjascent regions during the cold desert nights. It is thus very possible that the greening of the desert landscape will bring about additional agricultural opportunities and bird-life, with asociated bio-cycle of species. The cycle may be enhanced as these Green Areas may encourage further precipitation, and avoid heat radiation back to the atmosphere. This may be the slution to provide additional Green Lungs for the earth to be able to absorb excess CO2 and thus contribute towardsreduction of global warming.
Copyright: 15.01.2010
Peter Vangelatos
Johannesburg
(After a mind-stretching summer break in Cape Town)
WILD IDEAS - GREENING OF THE DESERTS BY COUNTERACTING GLOBAL WARMING - PART 2
6.If cleverly designed, all transfer of sea water to inland deserts could incorporate a system of solar desalination for the provision of desalinated water gathering reservoirs along the route. One such concept is to use green enrgy (wind, solar) to pump to from low to high-level reservoir stations going uphill, and allow gravity canals to the next reservoir (imagine going uphill along a saw-tooth profile). During the uphill pumping, water would heat up during day time to reach the next station a higher temperature. This warmer water will then be allowed to run downwnhill in suitably covered solar evaporation canals, where evaporation of the warmer water will allow for precipitation gravity draw off points during the cold nights along the length of these canals. The advantage of such evaporative solar desalination system would be the creation of a potable water resource along canal corridors, for the benefit of local inhabitants along the route.
7. Projects to create Sea Water Desert Wetlands will be of a scale larger than the pyramids, and may create local employment for decades, in areas where poverty and harshness of living is an extreme. This means employment of the poorest in low technology infrastructure, and a boost to stabilise global economies no longer through consumer or military growth, but through infrastructural projects that may be scheduled and distributed around the globe. Possible such Sea Water Wetlands can stretch from the deserts of Sahara and Saudi Arabia to Australia and the Gobi Desert in China or the Atacama Deserts of western South America. Such project should reduce the need of mass migration to the Mega Cities of the world, and rather provide the opportunity and hope of rural populations to colonise new oases and farming or even Tourist Business opportunities. In addition, salt water wetlands is less likely to support disease (malaria mosquitos, etc), but could assist in cleaning out ablutions and dis-infect human waste along the canal transfer routes.
8. World projects of this nature must be financed through a new economic order, not based on traditional pure capitalist models of Return On Investment (ROI), but rather based on a new priority measure of Return on Humanity and Environment (ROHE). The economic multiplier effect of such mega-projects would be the greatest in the poorest areas of the globe, and would give hope for millions to make sustainable development a reality.
9. By controlling the rate of flow of ocean water into these desert waetlands, this may provide the only mechanism that mankind may have available to regulate the rate of global warming or cooling, and hence our environment at some future date.
WHAT IF the world could come together and focus resources for the common good of humanity with projects of this nature? Human Civilisation has to move forward in projects of this nature...
I wish I did not have to work for a daily living and focus all my efforts to master-plot and make such project a reality ...
Copyright: 15.01.2010
Peter Vangelatos
Johannesburg
(After a mind-stretching summer break in Cape Town
SUSTAINABLE HOUSING CONCEPT FOR REPLACEMENT OF SQUATER CAMPS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (EG S.AFRICA)
Low Cost housing units using pre-fabricated panel structures (eg Fibre cement, or corrugated steel panels) can provide quick & low cost solutions. However, instead of placing them on leveled ground plinths, where they may be accessible to flooding, termite or vermin attack, a sustainable living alternative is to place these units approx. 1.0m above ground level, on a suspended floor structure that is supported on gum poles or concrete / fibre cement pipes or brick columns.
The preparation of the support poles is easy and quick (foundation holes 0.5m deep & 300mm diameter,prepared on any ground with manual tools or 'dwalas'- a long heavy metal 'spear'-) As soon as the holes are dug to the required depth, poles are inserted and held perpendicular with a plumb line, then filled with a dry mixture of cement, sand and washed stone and stamped firm to hold the pole. Thereafter, excess water is slowly poured on to this admixture and allowed to permeate.
Immediately thereafter, the poles are cut level and floor structure erected. The side panels and roof provide the structural bracing for such dwelling.
Because the floor is above ground, it is easy to provide separate plumbing for brown and grey water if common area ablutions not wanted.
The advantage of this structure is that residents can use the covered area under the house for storage of fuel or to grow their own food by keeping free range chickens. These areas can also be considered to create water holding tanks/reservoirs for rain water from roof gutters and grey water collection from shower/washroom. The water can be used to grow vegetables,Fruit trees and crops in the adjascent ground.
By living above ground, problems with pests or periodic rain water will be eliminated.
Above all, such lifestyle may foster a new culture of routine, especially among children, who can be allocated responsibilities such as feeding the animals, collecting eggs, watering etc. whilst serving as a great education medium that teaches care for the land and the environment. Organic growing and Green consciousness will be the spin-off.
Governments may further be encouraged to support these communities with free seeds, agri-knowhow, implements, day old chicks etc.
Recycling of old tyres can also be used for 'raised container growing' of crops such as potatoes, tomatoes and carrots in artificially prepared soil of shredded waste paper,dry leaves or grass cuttings.(Tyres can be stacked 4 or 6 high, along the boundaries of properties as fences or to demarkate and close off chicken run areas)
Peter V
Johannesburg
17.04.2010
ON NATIONALISATION
DAR, 1.07.2011
Maybe the call for NATIONALISATION reflects the frustration expressed by many previously colonised people, especially in Africa, because somehow they do not seem to fully participate in the wealth of their national treasures. In Africa, it is the super-profits generated by multinationals such as Mining and Oil companies as well as 'cartels' in diamonds and commodities. These nations feel unfairly treated by the current world economic system, and see no other way to participate in the commodity superprofits, other than nationalisation. I agree with experts on the disadvantages of Nationalisation, or even the investor fears about potential Nationalisation. However, what disadvantaged communities or nations need to see is an alternative to this, in order to share in the windfalls of their National Treasures.
I propose that there are alternatives that lead to more just allocation of profits or super-profits, without Nationalisation, but with an opposite commitment to 'FREE MARKETS without OLIGOPOLISTIC CARTELS or INTEREST GROUPS' : An International Charter could be established, under the auspices of the WTO for example, that prescribes the following mechanisms:
1. All Resource & Commodity related Taxes,royalties and allowances of resource producing companies are replaced by a (FIXED % NATIONAL CONTRIBUTION FEE) based on (volume or quantity produced) x (a weighted average commodity LME / Ruling World Price)of a commodity or resource produced - be that gold, oil, copper diamonds or cocoa beans.
2. Intra-company transactions and intra-national transactions become TRANSPARENT, so that the WTO will be able to monitor or audit the new system.
3.Because the income to the National Fiscus will depend purely on a fixed % of the commodity price, net profitability of any resource recovery or mining operation cannot falsify cost inputs or fees to manipulate profits, other than orchestrating movements in their share price or equity valuation. ANY OR ALL PROFITS, after the % PRICE CONTRIBUTION FEE has been deducted, must be FREE OF ANY NATIONAL TAXES. This will motivate operations to become efficient in order to maximise their profitability, and will ensure investment allocation to grow production volumes so that overall cost per unit of production reduces. A WIN-WIN situation will be achieved, where nations will participate in all commodity price movements, without threats to nationalise or own equity in a resource mining operation, thus alleviating any fears of investors.
4. GOVERNMENTS should divest of all their interests in equity structures of mining or resource companies, and just ensure they receive their 'PRICE BASED FEES'from each player. This will free Governments from running 'Boards of Directors' teams to safeguard their investments, and rather focus on the job they are supposed to do : Protect the Laws of the Land and ensure services and infrastructure is ever improving for their people.
The concept of COMMUNISM, NATIONALISATION & LAND GRAB MENTALITY can thus become ideas of the past, that served their purpose to mobilise public understanding to the plight of the previously disadvantaged masses on our planet.... Peter V (from Dar es Salaam currently)
LAND ISSUES & OWNERSHIP
Peter V – from Dar
30.06.2011
Land Ownership / Land Grab is a matter of relevant baseline.
WHERE DOES ONE START WITH LEGITIMACY OF LAND & PROPERTY OWNERSHIP?
- Recent 'New SA - BEE' forced / unforced agri-land?
- Loss of property due to current economic theories & practices (eg losing your home due to bankruptcy imposed by creditors)?
- Demographic breakdown in Law & Order that affects property values?
- Appartheid Land Legislation?
- The rise of Marxism & Communism / Socialism?
- The numerous European / Asiatic Dynasties & Wars that displaced cultures?
- Colonial / Arabic / Religious displacements and take-overs of Southern Africa and othe sub continents?
- Roman Empire?/Vikings?/ Attila the Hun?
- Alexander the Great?
- Minoan / Atlantean /Egyptian Civilisations?
- Cavemen & Clans & Tribes?
The question of Land is an eternal historical legacy of mostly unfair or unjust land grab or fortune.
What is needed is a NEW WAY OF THINKING FORWARD that will accept certain historical developments, find a consensus to some form of just reparation, and establish a NEW SOCIO-ECONOMIC Landscape.
DEALING WITH DISASTERS - A NEW WAY OF THINKING TOWARDS A NEW ECONOMIC / MONETARY SYSTEM- PART 1
Peter V from Dar, 1.7.2011
During early March 2011, Japan was struck by a series of disasters triggered by a huge earthquake, followed by a Tsunami, and as a result, one of the worst Nuclear disasters in recent history.This caused loss of life and property, as well as environmental devastation for years to come.
Under our current economic system, a small un-known and ad hoc monetary contribution towards reparations will come from world aid bodies and generous individuals. THE BALANCE to repair and recover from such catastrophe will be financed over years by
1. Some Insurance funds for private property, provided there are no exclusion clauses on "Acts of God"
2. Government Taxes and Debt raised by the Japanese Parliament to undertake clean-up and restoration work. This will either be borrowed in the financial markets at a cost (interest charges) or by increased tax burden on the Japanese people. No doubt free labour and toil will also be expected from each citizen.
IN OTHRER WORDS, the same nation that suffered such calamity, is expected to suffer a double whammy - Pay higher taxes, and pay the financiers interest
3.TEPCO, the Tokyo Electric Power Company is facing financial ruin, and may be liable for damage payouts and litigation. This company will have to go borrow at an interest cost, from providers of capital, in order to restore, make safe or compensate injured parties.
In other words, some entities or individuals of our world finance system,are going to benefit through investment returns by interest and bond trading from the disaster yhat struck the Japanese people. Is this a fair or well thought economic order that we are unquestionably accepting to run our lives and livelihood?
The Japanese catastrophe is only one example of disaster. We had the Thailand Tsunami, Floods and Forest fires around the world, war and terrorism disasters, and even economic disasters such as Greece and the PIGS financial defaults currently. In 1929 we had the GREAT DEPRESSION followed by drought and agricultural disasters, we have creeping desertification and climate change starting to cause disasters.We also had volcanic ash causing financial disasters on some airlines and ash covered regions.
OUR CURRENT WORLD ECONOMIC SYSTEM prescribes the use of debt finance to repair disaster damage. In other words, Nations have to become indebted to financiers to effect reparation, again a double whammy for nthe victims of disaster... Taxes, interest and maturing debt. THE VICTIMS OF THE AFFECTED NATIONS ARE VICTIMISED, THE PROVIDERS OF DISASTER CAPITAL BENEFIT THROUGH PROFITS ON THEIR GUARANTEED INVESTMENTS.
I am a capitalist myself, and my Retirement Annuities grow in value if my investment fund earns good returns. So I am not criticising the owners of investment capital. I am just bringing up the facts that our current philosophy of national financing is flawed.
Part 2 follows- THE SOLUTION
Peter V from a Dar es Salaam Hotel Room
1 July, 2011
DEALING WITH DISASTERS - A NEW WAY OF THINKING TOWARDS A NEW ECONOMIC / MONETARY SYSTEM- PART 2
By Peter V: 1.July 2011
THE SOLUTION:
We may need to define two streams of capital generation.
STREAM A: Traditionalassetand labour based capital generation, depending on free market banking and financing, where wealth is generated through value add activities of our economies
STREAM B: FIAT CAPITAL. where a world recognised body such as a 'GLOBAL NATIONAL BANK' (not the current World Bank) thatis empowered through the United Nations to essentially "print a global basket currency" and is used to finance sovereign States (ie Governments and Nations) on an interest free, non-repayable basis. This global currency can be used for a number of objectives, especially to fight Natural, Social or economic disasters and to uplift the Infrastructure of ' disaster economies in Africa and other poverty stricken areas. So Instead of Governmrnts having to raise taxes in order to fund reparations or infrastructure, they will be assisted by this STREAM B, non interest bearing, non repayable Global Capital. Thus, Governments will not be held ransom to financial austerity or financial institutions and bond holders. GOVERNMENTS SHOULD NEVER HAVE TO BORROW FROM BANKS IN ORDER TO FINANCE CALAMITIES AND DISASTERS.
ADVANTAGES:
As Governments will no longer have a need to borrow from the owners of capital or the banks, there will be a lot more money capital available for investment in the free markets. Lower interest rates will prevail, employment opportunities will increase due to infrastructure projects in developing regions. Investments in employment creation opportunities will flourish, because the owners of capital can no longer sit back and expect high interest rates to suffice - they need to create real returns on their investments with a higher level of entrepreneurship...
IF NO SOVEREIGN NATION EVER HAS TO BORROW AGAIN IN THE OPEN MARKETS, there will bean immediate improvement in the quality of life of all nations, at lower or no taxation, withfreed capital to create employment.
THIS WILL BE THE WAY FORWARD TO ZERO UNEMPLOYMENT...
I believe the above type of thinking will revolutionise the World Economic Order towards a future-ideal society of zero unemployment and improved standard of living for all...With Disaster Management in Place and no more economic depressions - ever.
Peter V from a Dar es Salaam Hotel Room
1 July, 2011
SOLVING THE ECONOMIC TSUNAMI - HOW TO DEAL WITH GLOBAL SOVEREIGN DEBTS AND OTHER DISASTERS
By: Peter Vangelatos
from a Kinshasa Hotel Room; Bastille Day 2011
Abstract
This short article describes a new economic system that could overcome International Economic Recessions, crises of Sovereign Debt and financing of Social and Economic Disasters. It suggests that a basket of principal currency blocks agree to mutually adopt the ‘proportional printing of FIAT currencies by decree’ so that the ‘money created’ leads to the creation of non – repayable, non – interest bearing international aid that fully finances disasters and assists national economies at risk of debt default to avoid economic catastrophe. It may have further future application in a new way of Sovereign Financing of Nations, without the need for traditional debt instruments or excessive increases in taxation.
INTRODUCTION:
At this point in time, all news is dominated by the European Debt Crises (After Greece, Portugal, Ireland & Spain, Italy is the latest victim of the rating agencies, with European Central Bank and the IMF dragging their feet or being uncertain in their decisions to resolve the situation). USA has debts to repay and needs ‘to find money’ or raise its debt ceiling by 3rd August, 2011, (President Obama and Federal Reserve featuring prominently on TV), UK not doing too well, and Japan has been reported to have the worst debt to GDP ratio (225%) a situation that was made worse with the recent Tsunami disasters. By comparison, Zimbabwe has a Debt to GDP ratio of 149% and Greece 144%. Some coverage is also given to current humanitarian disasters such as malnutrition and the worst drought in 50 years in the Horn of Africa affecting millions of people there, and weather related disasters in the USA. Low grade wars, uprisings and terrorism are becoming entrenched, partly fuelled by poverty stricken and desperate people and circumstances, where unemployment and lack of income causes idleness and risk aversion to individuals with nothing to lose.
We have the perfect setting for a financial TSUNAMI; Sovereign Nations need money to repay their over-borrowed debt obligations or to recover from natural disasters, yet the established traditional western free market banking systems in place such as the World Bank, IMF, ECB etc., are unwilling or unable to roll over these debts or provide desperate aid capital due to the potential risks of never getting their capital and interest repaid. Austerity measures with higher taxes from contracting economies, unrealistic debt roll overs at high interest rates, and national asset sell-offs seem to be the only current prescription, with financial institutions facing massive losses if any country goes into default or fails to meet their debt repayment commitments. This may further lead to global economic panic, with a potential run on the banks to reduce investor risk exposure and the associated turmoil and uncertainty.
THE SOLUTION? ……… A NEW ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY TO FINANCE NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS AND DISASTER RECOVERY
PART 2 :THE SOLUTION FOLLOWS
Peter V from DRC
16.7.2011
PART 2: WHY WE NEED NEW THINKING:
THE SOLUTION basics: MAJOR CURRENCY SOVEREIGN DEBT FIAT SWOPS
If a sovereign nation with its own currency needs to ‘create money’ in order to repay debt or to finance a government administration or to finance infrastructure to create jobs and employment at home, it can do so by simply ‘printing money’ in isolation to the rest of the world. This happened in Germany after World War I following austerities and war reparation clauses stipulated by the Treaty of Versailles, (resulting in Hyper-inflation, extreme poverty & unemployment of an advanced nation), which eventually led to the rise of Nationalism, Nazism, Hitler and the 2nd World War Catastrophe.
A similar situation occurred in Zimbabwe in the 1990’s and 2000’s, where the nationalisation programme and printing of money by the government of Mr Mugabe led to loss of investor confidence, Hyper-inflation for many years, untold hardship and the printing of the Billion Zim.-Dollar Notes. The situation in Zimbabwe however stabilised immediately after the Zim Dollar was discontinued, and the US $ and the SA Rand introduced as the official currency of the country. Inflation was eliminated immediately and confidence and economic growth and investment slowly returned.
Latin & South America also has many recent examples of National financial crises due to sovereign debts and depreciating currencies, accompanied by unemployment and economic stagflation (e.g. the Argentina default, Brazil’s currency problems in the 1990’s, Haiti and many others). Of course in all cases above, the population of these nations suffered through terrible economic depression, unemployment and poverty. Indirectly, the lack of useful employment leads to illicit activities (such as drugs) and idle time of disillusioned able bodied people is not always used productively for the good of society.
From the above , we can deduce that when a Nation goes into an economic decline, it collects less taxes, has to borrow more at higher interest rates, its currency loses value and confidence, and there is a general flight of capital from these countries which in turn exacerbate the problem. In general, its currency depreciates against all other currencies, inflation increases and the economy shrinks, with expert economists prescribing austerity measures and higher taxes, leading to further shrinkage and unemployment. A prolonged downward socio-economic spiral is the general result for generations or many years at a time.
SEE PART 3....
Peter Vangelatos from DRC
16.7.2011
PART 3 : TOWARDS A SOLUTION TO THEECONOMIC TSUNAMI
In July of 2011, we find the situation of Eurozone countries, Japan and the USA facing major debt repayment problems, our ‘Sovereign Nations running out of money’ caused by many factors, including:
(a) Government mismanagement ,
(b) The 2008 Financial Global Banking Crisis,
(c) Misallocation of expenditures(e.g. military and war commitments)
(d) Imbalanced infrastructural development debts (e.g. Greece infrastructure debt incurred before the 2004 Olympic Games, disproportionate to the population size and its economy, but with major opportunities and profits made by European Mega-Companies)
(e) various natural catastrophes (e.g. Earthquake-Tsunami-Nuclear disaster in Japan, Fire Devastations in USA and Greece, Hurricanes & Floods in North America, Drought in East Africa, etc.)
(f) growing competitiveness of China, India and SE Asia causing re-distribution of investment and employment allocation,
(g) China’s protectionism of its currency keeping it artificially low against other world currencies thus assuring market penetration for its products under a Free World Trade environment
(h) Disproportional Resource price increases caused partly by China’s increasing share of global production, and partly by ‘commodity gambling’ and ‘oligopolistic price manipulation’ (eg Oil, Copper, Iron Ore, energy resources,)
The common constraint with Sovereign Debts is that we are stuck in an ‘Unquestioned’ inherited and antiquated Financial System where Governments need to either ‘Raise Taxes’ or ‘Borrow More at higher interest’ in order to repay debt, to finance infrastructure or to squander on mis-allocated political & military goals.
THE SOLUTION can be practically resolved as follows:
All major central banks can agree to ‘print FIAT currency ‘and buy each other’s debt in a ‘FIAT debt swop’. In other words, by agreement among themselves, each major currency central bank ‘prints a quantity of money by decree’, without having to issue bonds in the free financial markets or taking money out of circulation.
THUS
SEE PART 3: THE SOLUTION
Peter Vangelatos from DRC
16.7.2011
PART 4: SOLUTION TO ECONOMIC TSUNAMI
THE SOLUTION can be practically resolved as follows:
All major central banks can agree to ‘print FIAT currency ‘and buy each other’s debt in a ‘FIAT debt swop’. In other words, by agreement among themselves, each major currency central bank ‘prints a quantity of money by decree’, without having to issue bonds in the free financial markets or taking money out of circulation.
THUS
The European Central Bank , The US Federal Reserve, the Japanese and UK monetary authorities for example, agree to fix their exchange rates with each other at prevailing foreign exchange rate at the time, and that each issues or prints a quantity of their currency in such manner, chronological rate and relative proportion that each other’s relative currency value does not depreciate ( as there would be no arbitrage profits to be made by speculators). The money created by such agreement or decree should be used to start repaying their currency zone obligations or debts over time, in such manner that the rate of growth of this FIAT money does not overheat or over stimulate their economies, which might lead to inflationary pressures.
In this manner, individual States or Countries in each currency zone will be ‘given’ non-interest bearing and non-repayable financial assistance to repay their debt obligations, thus avoiding any default to the holders of sovereign debt (ie. the banks or investors that financed these debts will not lose their investment, and will get repaid in full, thus making money available for productive investments). In turn, there would be no need to raise taxes or borrow in the traditional Money Markets, which will thus avoid economic contraction and lead to a WIN-WIN situation for the world economy.
SEE PART 5 : THE BENEFITS
PETER V - from KINSHASA (DRC)
14.07.2011
PART 5: BENEFITS OF A NEW GLOBAL MONETARY FIAT SYSTEM
. By creating a controlled basket of FIAT money, the following would be achieved:
• The Debt Crisis will be immediately solved, as no country should be in a position to threaten with default. Individual debtor countries will be ‘given’ the financial assistance to repay debt as it falls due.
• There will be no need for drastic austerity measures that might contract an already distressed economy
• There would be no long term tax or new debt burdens, with the probability of lowering of future taxes and improvement of social services such as medical and old age benefits.
• Money released by repayment of maturing sovereign debt will act as stimulus for new investments, with more money available for commercial investment opportunities and lowering of prevailing interest rates.
• There will be more equitable stability between currencies and futures speculation would reduce, thus avoiding volatility
• Indebted countries will equalise the playing fields with artificially supported currency areas such as China, thus making dumping of manufactured goods less likely.
• The FIAT basket can be used to finance disaster projects globally (eg African Infrastructure Disaster Areas, Social or War ravaged disaster areas, Natural disasters such as the Japanese Earthquake-Tsunami-Nuclear disaster of March 2011 and many Earthquake ,or climate change disasters, etc.
• Smaller countries with numerous minor currencies may be advised to elect to join one of the major currency zones so as to benefit from greater stability
• Allocation of FIAT Infrastructure in needy and developing world economies will lead to new demand for Technological support and skills from the developed world, which will in turn lead to a renaissance of global economic growth, without a need for World Wars, for years to come.
• There will be a general uplifting of the Quality of Life globally, especially the current poverty stricken Regions of the world.
• In the longer term, once all sovereign debts have been repaid through the systematic use of Fiat Basket Capital, there will be no need for Governments to borrow anymore in the traditional Money Markets, thus freeing up capital for investments in job creating and entrepreneurial opportunities. Interest rates should be on a reducing trend due to easier availability of more plentiful capital
• Taxes raised should be on a reducing trend as debt repayments will reduce and eventually disappear, and to be used purely to administer and uphold the laws of the Land and for improving the Social Benefits of a Nation (Education & Skills, Medical and Social projects)
THE CHALLENGE: To get a global acceptance for the need to change from our current entrenched Economic System, and to overcome Special Interest Groups with self-profiteering objectives. Thereafter, to Create the Mechanism of FIAT SOVEREIGN CAPITAL administration and allocation under a new body such as a WORLD SOVEREIGN FIAT CAPITAL BANK.
PETER VANGELATOS - today from KINSHASA (DRC)
14.07.2011
COMMENT FROM HANS v A, JOHANNESBURG:
19.07.2011
Subject: Re: SOME THOUGHTS ON SOLVING THE CURRENT GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS
Peter,
Nice thoughts..but will be very difficult to implement.
The Euro is an example of how difficult it is to maintain a currency depending on the implementation of agreements made at some summit in Europe. Overspending of countries started when new governements in France and Germany overspent and did not kept to the rules. After that not any country kept its promises.
To achieve something worldwide would be difficult.
Your plan sounds clear but you first have to tackle the root cause and that is not in your plan Long term finance of a country is the responsibility of the governement.
Governments will be elected for 4/5 yrs. They will only have a short term objective and the first objective will be how any new policy or law will affect the polital landscape and not the effects on long term . Further it is ridiculous that for the top job of a country (president/prime minister) no experience is needed. You get the job based on charisma.
I have the opinion that anybody can be a political leader but not any political leader can be president/prime minister.
The political leader needs to meet some standard as defined in the constitution. Skills, education, experience in governement and needs to be independant.
To protect the next generations for the actions of a governement some basis rights need to be added to constitutions of countries.
The candidate for prime minister/minister need to meet some standard for
the top job and needs to be independant.
In the constitution some basic rules should be added with regards caps
of lending and spending of government (debt maximum of xx % of GDP/
finance deficit maximum xx %) etc. This should be an human right to
protect the citizens on long term against political short term
mismanagement.
I think you first have to fix the above before you can start with your plan.
Hans
RESPONSE FROM PETER V To HANS v A
Re: Thoughts on Debt Crisis
Thanks for your thoughts.
Very valid and Agree with your ideas.
However, we currently have the situation that if any Government Defaults without any help from the international community, we will get a cascade effect of:
1) Some private Banks or Investment Institutions are likely to lose some or part of their capital and future returns
2) There will be a confidence crisis
3) A chain of events may follow as the default exposure passes back to other Banks, Other Regions and eventually the private investor in the street, including your social pension scheme.
4) There will be a run by the public to get their money out of deposit into gold, cash, etc.
5) There will be a general lack of Lending Appetite for general investment from private banks, and unemployment is likely to rise.
6) Austerity measures with more taxes will further cause contraction of economic activity
10) WE HAVE A RECIPE FOR A CRISIS WORSE THAN 1929....
We need URGENT Quick Action to address only immediate issues first:
SHORT TERM:
a) Only default debt applications
b) Only Major Disaster support Areas
MEDIUM TERM:
Apply the new FIAT Capital assistance to infrastructure development of the 10 (?) WORST POVERTY STRICKEN countries, subject to global project management principles and support, Not local Government simple monetary aid which soon disappears into bribery and corruption among the select few.
LONG TERM:
Establish Governance Philosophies for Nations.
Perhaps we should split governments of National Management into:
(i) Political leadership - based on voting by communities or Nations for Charismatic Leaders, and subject to re-election.
(ii)Infrastructure National Management Companies (National Infraco) - Based on apolitical, skills and Organisation Based principles, with limited authorities and subject to global audit and accountability to the new WORLD FIAT CAPITAL Structure
(iii) Safety & Security of a Nation, to be financed purely by taxation, not global aid, which will by a Hybrid of Political & Management Leadership.
Thanks for your inputs and let's keep the momentum going.
(I already copied my thoughts on FIAT Capital Basket to among others Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Pres. Obama, Chancellor Merkel, Japan, Greece, IMF, IIF and ECB etc.)
Regards
From Kinshasa
Peter V
DEBT CRISIS -
COMMENT FROM HANS v A
JOHANNESBURG; 19.07.2011
Peter,
The current lack of commitment to resolve the greece problem is that a resolution has to be created in such a way that any finance minister can explain to his electorate (the voters/tax payers).
Further they want to kick the can forward. Temp solutions for 2/3 years.
There has been discussions to write off some of Greece debt....or roll over But this was not an option as this will effect directly the persons who lend money to greece and took the risks and the taxpayer will pay the bill at the end of the day.
Now they created another way....
Greece will be given extra new loans from the IMFand/ or Greece financial institutions. With this they will buy back existing bonds for 70% of their value and the bond holders who will loose money can claim the losses from their national reserve bank as an asset guaranteed by the governement and will be compensated over a period of 10 years.
Upgrading of bad debt. So German and French banks get rid off a part of their Greece bonds and this will be compensated/guaranteed by the reserve bank/governement.
This is a resolution out of the public eye of the voters/taxpayers and the rating of the local banksin Germany and France will be better.
Basic financial mangement and longterm financial mangement should be anchored in the constitution and when the shit hit the fan it should not be resolved by politicians. If a country is close to defaulting the IMF and European central bank should take over some powers of the governement. Tax collection and reforms will be forced quickly and efficient.
H
SOME THOUGHTS ON SOLVING THE CURRENT GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS
RESPONSE:
Hans
Probably a best short term solution as an interim.
Political Myopia does not help the affected nations unfortunately, which still have to suffer austerity and an uncertain future.
The proposal of buy-back at 70% is purely a short term solution and does not address the issue that:
1) Governments traditionally spend as much money as necessary in politically prioritised areas to get re-elected
2) Governments do not create value-add to moneys that they use or borrow.
3) Moneys borrowed for long term use and utilised to create National Treasures (egg. Build Dams, Roads, Hospitals, Schools, Irrigation Infrastructure, Ports, Airports, Rail Links and Public Transport,) are never shown as ASSETS in a National Balance Sheet. Although the 'Asset Value' of a country increases with such projects', they cannot be used as 'securitisation' to borrow future loans, and such projects DO NOT HAVE TRADITIONAL RETURNS ON MONEY INVESTED THEREON. Hence, Governments cannot be considered like normal business enterprises to support Long Term Financing.
4) TAXATION should be used to cover Operational Expenditure ( including safety & security of a Nation),but NOT USED to finance SOCIAL INFRASTRUCURAL REQUIREMENTS or repay loans and interest for such infrastructure, and also NOT PAY for unforeseen disasters, such as Tsunami's.
Following the above thinking, there is a need for a dual INCOME STREAM to Manage (Govern) Nations:
STREAM A: Traditional Opex, covered by Taxation per Nation to administer a society (pay teachers, hospitals, maintenance of infrastructure, administration of Justice and Security) STREAM B: GLOBAL SOVEREIGN CAPITAL Funding that is Interest Free and Non-Repayable, to finance Crises, Disasters and Socially required infrastructure. Such SOVEREIGN CAPITAL should be generated by decree on a global currency proportional basket, and should not be raised by Borrowing from traditional Financing Institutions. i.e. this is not a debt to be repaid - It simply means converting a FIAT world currency into 'National Treasures' of no monetary return, having only social improvement and disaster reparation urgency. This becomes the Infrastructure that transforms our society, and remain as long term ASSETS of the planet we live on.
This I believe to be the ultimate way of economic thinking necessary for a better quality of life for all.
BANKS AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS / OWNERS OF CAPITAL: Their Money to be used to invest in a Free Commercial Economy for commercial gain, and to create productive employment.
GLOBAL FIAT SOVEREIGN CAPITAL: Their money is created by global agreement, 'by decree' based on proportional contribution from each MAJOR CURRENCY ZONE , and administered rationally by a WORLD SOVEREIGN FIAT CAPITAL BANK that only contributes to Disasters (Economic, Social & Natural). - Ideally in the long term, All Nations must adopt to belong to one of the major zone currencies, and all local ' Mickey Mouse Money' eliminated. The future of currency speculators however will not be sustainable in the long term;
Peter V
A RESPONSE ON GREECE BAIL-OUT, EURO DEBT etc.
(published for info- this reply and its contents does not necessarily meet with my full agreement or support, but copied for external balance)
some comments.... for you to read on the weekend / send to your friends regarding the crisis
"Nicolas Sarkozy continued to insist that Greece would pay "all its debts"."
The Greeks most certainly will pay all their debts, and much more. Brussells couldn't have more power over Greece than if they had invaded. In fact it's even better than invasion because you can print your way to victory and there are no reconstruction costs. What sort of demoracy will the Greeks have now? A democracy where you don't know who is in charge, where there is no opposition party, and no means of kicking them out. In other words Greece is no longer a democracy.
They are living under occupation and the witnesses are looking away, hoping that the crocodile has eaten his fill.
Tell me what happens when German bonds surge past 3.5%?
This ain't over by a long distance...what we now have is recipe for civil war, unless you think the general populace of Europe is going to collectively acquiesce to generally rising costs, and falling living standard...
"The risk is that Spain and even Italy tip back into recession, with knock-on effects for their debt trajectories. The root of Europe's debt crisis is the gap that has built up over 15 years between North and South, which itself reflects the disparate characters of these countries. This economic chasm cannot be bridged by bail-out funds or loans guarantees."
The Roman's money was ultimately refused in Egypt because they'd clipped it and diminished its metal content and once the money wasnt recognised neither was the power. Think about where we are all heading and tell me if you can't see Chinese wage levels for the world's workers on the horizon fairly soon. How much inflation do the Chinese need and how much do we need to be dispossessed by lorryloads of paper money before we are all on Chinese wages. Then the western central banks wont face any more competition from their peers in those parts of the world where the labour supply seems infinite by comparison with Europe or the USA. This way is protectionism. This way is war.
So basically the end result is that the Greek taxpayers can still cheat, that the Greek government has played hard ball and won at the expense of the Northern economies but the Euro project has been saved. However, the Northern economies have a greater debt but they do not mind as they are helping out their hard working, tax paying Southern neighbours.
So I guess that Greece is suddenly going to create massive additional revenues to pay back this debt in a time when we are heading for a world depression. The Greek people, who only a short time ago were saying that Germany, because of its Nazi past should give them money are now going to be really determined to pay back this debt. In addition, other countries like Portugal and ireland will simply sit back and not feel at all agrieved.
END of PART 1
By:JSc, Johannesburg, 22.07.2011
PART 3 - JSc COMMENT ON GREECE BAIL OUT, EURO DEBT, ETC
PART 3:
And of course there is Ireland and Portugal too.
And now Italy, and close behind is Spain.
And when market dictates that French bond yeilds rise over the level of the Greek rate, what then.
Will France and even Germany go for a loan to avail of "cheap rates"
Debt is just that.. If the mortgage is too big to pay then no messing around with terms and interest rates is going to solve things.
It has to be either inflated away or written off and whatever assets secured sold off.
Come back in a week and see the direction of the markets in Europe then..
I think the clowns will be seeing a very different landscape to what they see today as investors wake up to the long term consequences of whats proposed and as Germanys debt rises or taxes rise to cover the EU shortfall
Whats the bet the "socialists" spit in Portugal and Greece and even Italy, now go on a spending spree with their new found "savings" to try to buy all the votes back.
END OF COMMENT, PART 3/3
By:JSc, Johannesburg, 22.07.2011
PART 2 -JSc COMMENT ON GREECE BAIL OUT, EURO DEBT, ETC
JSc COMMENT PART 2
I now think it is near to fraudulent as well. Here's why.
The EFSF will raise funds in the market using the core's famous AAA rating, but the EFSF will contain a mixture of cash-like AAA assets and junk assets - loans to Greece, for example. That makes it a lot like a structured mortgage backed Bond, containing a mixture of good and bad loans.
Now you can argue that as long as the proportion of junk in the EFSF remains small, it can keep its AAA rating, but now you have to think what happens over time. The entire purpose of the EFSF is to backstop the countries at risk, so over time the proportion of junk in EFSF must rise. Greece, then Ireland and Portugal, and maybe Spain and Italy.
As the proportion of junk rises, the rating of the EFSF must fall, which will mean losses for the investors who helped set it up. As the rating of EFSF Bonds falls, so will their price.
But these losses are not accidental, or due to misfortune; they are by *design*. You can't argue that EFSF assets will become good assets, because then you wouldn't need the EFSF in the first place. If Greece, for example, is on the road back to AAA status, then Greece should be able to borrow on the markets right now. Lending to a junk-rated country whose Bonds are headed back to AAA status would be hugely profitable. But Greece it isn't headed back to AAA status, and it can't borrow on the market, hence the EFSF.
So this proposal sets up a fund which by design will cause losses to private investors. Losses that are not being compensated in advance. If a private organization did that, it would be fraud. If this isn't fraud, only sovereign immunity says it isn't.
Isn't that exactly what US banks, backed up by US government and US rating agencies did, when they sold 6 trillion of US mortgage junk to the world, nicely packaged with some cash-like assets?
Ask the major German industrials, like Siemens, ThyssenKrupp, et al., if they are not happy with the Euro and the southern countries to sell their products. Ultimately, even the high levels of corruption of southern Europe (very real, unfortunately) boost cars and submarine sales... The German elites know this. They know that Germany has a much brighter future with this very large markets, even with relatively high corruption and profligacy.
Basically this reduces greeces cost from 5.09 billion a month over 7 years to 2.52 billion a month over 15 years on the new existing debt bail out.
And this debt adds to that by another 1.09 billion a month .
So now they only need to find 3.61 billion a month.
So actual saving a little over 1.4 billion a month,
And the pain now goes on for 15 years ..
It cant happen really can it.. Do they really think that 15 billion a year is going to change greece into another Germany.
That even in 15 years that Greece will mdernise to that extent just because they can save 15 billion a year on the impossible debt schedule they had.
END OF PART 2 -
JSc - JOIHANNESBURG, 22.7.2011
RESPONSE TO SUGGESTIONS REGARDING RELIGIOUS CONTENT (DIVINE ASSEMBLY PROPOSALS, LOVE, SPIRITUALITY ETC)
Dear Mr N (TANZANIA)
Many thanks for your inputs which I thought can be spiritually uplifting to the individual and makes one take notice of African historical legacies.
I have studied them and found your thoughts and ideals commendable.
However, the ultimate aim of my web-site is to expose ideas with global application, without concentrating on African issues only. As such, I hope to keep it a-political and completely neutral with respect to religious groupings, spiritualism or Theology, which apply to the individual Nation, Society or individual Person. Never the less, Spiritual & Religious Leaders will have a major role to play in order to establish ETHICS and SOCIAL NORMS in a FUTURE IDEAL SOCIETY, based on the principles of Mutual Respect for each other. Further, Spirituality and Personal Belief Systems can definitely be utilised to establish practical coaching at the family level in order to reduce the evils of our societies (eg crime, wars, intolerance, laziness, etc.) as well as to address globally important issues such as family planning & over-population, Hygiene, Care for the Environment and Education.
The super-ordinate goal of my web-site is to arrive one day at a Future-Ideal society, without poverty or malnutrition, in a fair socio-political system of governance for the human race, with a global readiness to immediately deal and cope with disasters (IRRESPECTIVE whether they are NATURAL (such as a Tsunami or Drought), SOCIAL (such as war ravaged regions of Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, etc.)or ECONOMIC (such as Greece, PIGS, Cuba, Lebanon, Zimbabwe, and the International Debt Crisis which may be looming, and threatens the whole world with unnecessary and ‘man-made’ Economic Depression)
I have updated the comments in my website recently, and have also sent my thoughts and link to decision makers and world leaders such as President Obama, Angela Merkel, IMF, The World Bank etc. You could refer to the following link for some additional thoughts regarding our common future:
We just need to get from TALK into PUBLIC EXPOSURE into DECISION and into ACTION by our global leadership.
I really appreciate your time and inputs and wish to Thank You sincerely,
Kind Regards
Peter Vangelatos
HOW DOES ONE EXPLAIN THE PARADOXES OF OUR ECONOMIC SYSTEM? (Some thoughts from Dar)
By Peter Vangelatos, 2.8.2011. ©
OBSERVATIONS AS AT 2 AUG 2011:
• Big Banks are retrenching when HSBC had highest reported Profits ever ($11 bn reported on 1/8/2011)
• George Soros is returning all investors’ money back, keeping only family money in his portfolio: (Explanation: He wants to avoid compliance with SEC Regulations in the US. – Any other strategies at play? Does he foresee an upheaval and cashing in his chips?)
• Japanese Yen has recorded highs against the USD ($1.00 = Y79- today, best ever wasY76- per USD in Mar 2011 before the Tsunami), yet Japan has the worst Debt:GDP ratio in the world @ 226% (vs Zimbabwe @149%; Greece @ 144% and Libya the best in the world @3.3%) – Is this artificial? Rational?
• US Debt has escalated to $14 Trillion USD now from $6 Trillion USD in Year 2000.
• Unemployment is increasing worldwide towards record highs, especially the under 30 age group, yet the IMF, World Bank & Governments are directing a co-ordinated increase of AUSTERITY and BUDGET CUTS to balance their budgets, which can only lead to higher unemployment, lower tax revenues, contracting economies and hence a lower tax base for traditional fiscal policy modelling.
• USA has AAA Fitch / Standard & Poor Rating giving them low borrowing costs, despite their record borrowings and unexplainable Yen:USD exchange rate, yet Euro countries are being watched and downgraded.
• Is there a Banker’s Ponzi scheme at play rapidly approaching collapse? The Banking & Financial systems have owned, accumulated and optimised sovereign debt (Capital), possibly massaged by the IMF, ECB and World Bank, with Sovereign Nations unable to ever repay their ever increasing National Debts through taxation.
• Would Bankers ever like to have all Sovereign Debt Repaid to them? as their risk can then disappear (as well as their leveraged / manipulated arbitrage profits?). After all, the higher the risk, the higher the potential return to the investors and , the higher the probability of all capital wealth being accumulated via profits in our banking & financial system
• VERY CLEVER? or JUST BY HISTORICAL CHANCE?
THE SOLUTION:
WE NEED TO DE-COUPLE SOVEREIGN DEBT CAPITAL FROM TRADITIONAL DEBT PROCURED VIA INVESTORS, MONEY LENDERS, BANKS & FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
In other words, Sovereign Countries and Economies must get together and establish a weighted basket of FIAT Capital that can be used to finance each-other’s disasters and infrastructural social requirements, on a non-repayable, non-interest bearing basis, via a new World Structure such as a Global FIAT Capital Fund to ‘print’ & ‘distribute’ sovereign Fiat Capital fairly for the benefit of global society as a whole… Let taxation income be determined for political agendas or policies, eg. Military Security, Strategic R&D, Politician’s Salaries, etc. – As long as the voters are prepared to support those goals.
(Note: fiat means “Let it be” in Latin and stands for Money created by decree or agreement, without the necessity for a reserve (eg gold, foreign currency or commodity).) – Look up History of Money and History of Banking at Wikipedia for a historical development of our current Monetary System and misunderstandings regarding reserves since Bretton Woods Agreement)
Thoughts from Dar
By Peter Vangelatos © 2.8.2011
Consider the following logic:
CURRENT STATUS QUO: All sovereign debts get borrowed from private bankers or
investors, who
are the ultimate winners in a zero-sum game. If the sovereign borrowers were in
turn able to invest their debts in activities or 'opportunities' with a profit
or IRR higher that their borrowing cost, there would be no problem with
honouring repayments.
HOWEVER, sovereign governments only borrow to either balance their shortfall in
tax revenues, or to finance infrastructures (such as dams, hospitals, schools,
reparation of natural disasters ), or to finance military & security
objectives.
Therefore, sovereign debt can never be repaid by 'profits' created from
deployment of such debts. One can surmise that there is a natural law of
entropy being followed here, where if 'Sovereigns' borrow from 'Bankers &
Investors', there will always be an accummulation of ever-increasing debt
spiral (unless economic growth and tax revenues never had to follow business cycles
and are ever increasing).
THE FUTURE?: A new way of financing Sovereign Nations has to be devised, where
SOVEREIGN
DEBT IS DE-COUPLED FROM PRIVATE BANKERS OR INVESTORS. Sovereign nations have to
explore their own independent global financing for disaster relief and
infrastructure capex, most probably based on PRINTING a proportional Basket of
FIAT currency, that never has to be repaid and does not have any burden of
interest. After all, how does a country reflect a social or infrastructural
investment on its balance sheet? (eg a dam or a hospital or a school becomes a
national treasure that represents value, yet that country cannot pre-print FIAT money to finance
this and has to currently go to the markets to borrow) .
Greece was faced with
financing the huge 2004 Olympic Games Infrastructure, which included roads, bridges, metrorail, security upgrades, new airport and telecoms just as the UK is doing with
2012. They had to borrow debt, which now needs to be repaid with interest and
penalties imposed by rating agencies, (and by the way, most of these Greek Olympian projects benefited private companies and banks in Germany, France and the USA).
Why should UK & Greece then not pre-PRINT the money required for financing such national treasures, but instead had
to follow the traditional path specified by our economic system and borrow -
and get into future trouble (which Greece is witnessing)? After all, these National Treasures become Fixed Assets of these countries!!!
Maybe CHINA has arrived at an optimal sovereign financing philosophy, where
they have traditionally printed the money required to stimulate their growth
economy through FIAT financing of a technologically superb national
infrastructure, without begging any Western Banks for Debt. How often does China go to the markets to borrow debt? How do
the rating agencies evaluate China based on its historical FIAT money printing
and undervalued currency that has caused dis-proportional migration of production and exports?
I think our western economists have lost sight of the wood for the trees.....
Regards from Africa....Peter V
To all eminent world leaders,
SOLUTIONS TO THE DEBT CRISIS – AS RECOMMENDED BY AN ENGINEER
All sovereign debts get borrowed from private bankers or investors, who are the ultimate winners in a zero-sum game. If the sovereign borrowers were in turn able to invest their debts in activities or 'opportunities' with a profit or IRR higher that their borrowing cost, there would be no problem with honoring repayments.
HOWEVER, sovereign NATIONAL governments only borrow to either balance their shortfall in tax revenues, or to finance infrastructures (such as dams, hospitals, schools, reparation of natural disasters ), or to finance military & security objectives. Therefore, sovereign debt can never be repaid by 'profits' created from deployment of such debts. One can surmise that there is a natural law of entropy being followed here, where if 'Sovereigns' borrow from 'Bankers & Investors', there will always be an accumulation of ever-increasing debt spiral (unless economic growth and tax revenues never follow business cycles and are ever increasing).
A new way of financing Sovereign Nations has to be devised, where SOVEREIGN DEBT IS DE-COUPLED FROM PRIVATE BANKERS OR INVESTORS. Sovereign nations have to explore their own independent global financing for disaster relief and infrastructure capex, most probably based on PRINTING a proportional Basket of FIAT currency, that never has to be repaid and does not have any burden of interest. After all, how does a country reflect a social or infrastructural investment on its balance sheet? (eg. a dam or a hospital or a school becomes a national treasure that represents value, yet cannot print FIAT money to finance this, but has to currently go to the markets to borrow) . Greece was faced with financing the 2004 Olympic Games Infrastructure, just as the UK is doing with 2012. They had to borrow debt, which now needs to be repaid with interest and penalties imposed by rating agencieS. Why should UK & Greece then not PRINT the money required for financing such national treasures, but instead had to follow the traditional path specified by our economic system and borrow - and get into future trouble. ? After all, they become Fixed assets of these countries!!!
Maybe CHINA has arrived at an optimal sovereign financing philosophy, where they have traditionally printed the money required to stimulate their growth economy through FIAT financing of a technologically superb national infrastructure. How often does China go to the markets to borrow debt? How do the rating agencies evaluate China based on its historical FIAT money printing and undervalued currency?
I think our western economists have lost sight of the wood for the trees.....
Just imagine the potential for Euro and Global growth if infrastructure and disaster reparations can be authorised without the need to raise funding in the normal traditional system of Eurobonds, Sovereign Debt, etc….
Peter Vangelatos
Letter to G20 via Angela Merkel:
HONOURABLE LEADERS OF OUR WESTERN SOCIETY:
Please read and consider the following SOLUTION to our current economic crises, especially with G20 conference coming up in November.
It is a comment I published earlier today in The Telegraph in response to an article of ‘ GLOBAL TRADE AT RISK’.
I believe it to be one of the only solutions to bring about global economic renaissance, and at the same time avert a Banking Crisis of indeterminate consequences.
COMMENT & PROPOSAL:
Consider the following:
-Banks would automatically be re-capitalised if the sovereign debts could be systematically repaid - we just need to find an innovative way of doing so, and avoid the need for sovereign nations 'bankrolling' their debts
- Sovereign countries do not 're-invest' borrowed capital into projects that offer a return, so that debt can be repaid from 'future profits'. They rely on either super-optimistic scenarios of tax collection, or on bankrolling debt, ie. borrowing more in the future to repay capital and interest. Therefore Sovereign Economies should not be treated like ' private corporates' when it comes to capital creation.
- Corporates finance assets on their balance sheet with debt. Sovereigns finance infrastructure, tax shortfalls and political / military objectives. Only National Infrastructure spends on dams, roads, hospitals, schools and social works can be considered as 'asset creation' or National Treasures. However our current economic system suggests that a monetary zone or sovereign is not simply allowed to 'print' money' for the future creation of National Treasures (assets). Instead, bankers rely on the relative risk-free lending to sovereigns as the only way of financing of Nations, and sovereigns in turn are measured by rating agencies according to their 'official foreign currency reserves' not their National Treasures ie not on reflecting the true assets of a nation.
-A more appropriate economic system of the future lies in DECOUPLING SOVEREIGN FINANCING FROM THE TRADITIONAL BANKING & INVESTMENT COMMUNITY. The way to do this is for the G20 for example to agree that borrowing methodology and historical constraints are superseded by a new system of COLLECTIVE FIAT CAPITAL GENERATION or CONTRIBUTION by each mega-member that can be used or allocated for partially alleviating the need for sovereign nations to go to markets to raise debt for DISASTERS, INFRASTRUCTURE OR NATIONAL CRISES. Such financing would be a grant , non- repayable and non- interest bearing to relieve crises and disasters, improve social infrastructure internationally, and at the same time creating conditions for sustained global stimulus and a way forward to finance the big unknowns: CLIMATE CHANGE INFRASTRUCTURE AND PREPAREDNESS.
In short, a Global G20 Basket of FIAT Capital, if regulated to alleviate inflationary pressures and directed rationally, will lead to a much improved future for all Nations. (Remember also that money printing only causes exchange rate speculation and inflation if it is done individually by a country in default - But in a climate of G20 FIAT Formation, currency speculation will disappear!!!)
Note:
• I can elaborate extensively on the above thought as well as prepare a PowerPoint Presentation for your considered circulation to the G20 decision makers.
• Prior correspondence has been included here-under for ease of reference.
Looking forward to your acknowledgement hereof,
Regards from Africa
Peter V
Subject: DEBT CRISIS - SOLUTION ALTERNATIVES SENT OUT 28 SEP.2011
To all eminent world leaders,
SOLUTIONS TO THE DEBT CRISIS – AS RECOMMENDED BY AN ENGINEER
All sovereign debts get borrowed from private bankers or investors, who are the ultimate winners in a zero-sum game. If the sovereign borrowers were in turn able to invest their debts in activities or 'opportunities' with a profit or IRR higher that their borrowing cost, there would be no problem with honoring repayments.
HOWEVER, sovereign governments only borrow to either balance their shortfall in tax revenues, or to finance infrastructures (such as dams, hospitals, schools, reparation of natural disasters ), or to finance military & security objectives. Therefore, sovereign debt can never be repaid by 'profits' created from deployment of such debts. One can surmise that there is a natural law of entropy being followed here, where if 'Sovereigns' borrow from 'Bankers & Investors', there will always be an accumulation of ever-increasing debt spiral (unless economic growth and tax revenues never follow business cycles and are ever increasing).
A new way of financing Sovereign Nations has to be devised, where SOVEREIGN DEBT IS DE-COUPLED FROM PRIVATE BANKERS OR INVESTORS. Sovereign nations have to explore their own independent global financing for disaster relief and infrastructure capex, most probably based on PRINTING a proportional Basket of FIAT currency, that never has to be repaid and does not have any burden of interest. After all, how does a country reflect a social or infrastructural investment on its balance sheet? (eg. a dam or a hospital or a school becomes a national treasure that represents value, yet cannot print FIAT money to finance this, but has to currently go to the markets to borrow) . Greece was faced with financing the 2004 Olympic Games Infrastructure, just as the UK is doing with 2012. They had to borrow debt, which now needs to be repaid with interest and penalties imposed by rating agencies,. Why should UK & Greece they not PRINT the money required for financing such national treasures, but instead had to follow the traditional path specified by our economic system and borrow - and get into future trouble. ? After all, they become Fixed assets of these countries!!!
Maybe CHINA has arrived at an optimal sovereign financing philosophy, where they have traditionally printed the money required to stimulate their growth economy through FIAT financing of a technologically superb national infrastructure. How often does China go to the markets to borrow debt? How do the rating agencies evaluate China based on its historical FIAT money printing and undervalued currency?
I think our western economists have lost sight of the wood for the trees.....
Just imagine the potential for Euro and Global growth if infrastructure and disaster reparations can be authorised without the need to raise funding in the normal traditional system of Eurobonds, Sovereign Debt, etc….
Peter V
COMMENT ON TELEGRAPH 18 NOV 2011
"Germany has drawn up secret plans to prevent a British referendum on the overhaul of the European Union amid concerns it could derail the eurozone rescue package, leaked documents obtained by The Daily Telegraph disclose. "
MY COMMENT ON THIS RELATES TO THE ROOT CAUSE OF EUROZONE PROBLEMS:
takisv
(RECOMMENDED BY 2 PERSONS)
The common denominator of our sovereign crisis is DEBT. With the current economic system we have adopted and nurtured or accepted as 'THE ONLY WAY' to run our increasingly 'faster' global village, we are merely accelerating a Ponzi Scheme of unthinkable outcomes, as countries are in a spiral - they have to borrow evermore to repay debt.
THE SOLUTION: Remove or deal with the root cause, which is INDEBTEDNESS of sovereign monetary areas to private bankers, investors or non-sovereign lenders. We need to DE-COUPLE Sovereign funding from Traditional sources of finance . There is need for a global re-think by the G20 to convert Sovereign funding to a FIAT Proportional Capital Creation mechanism, administered globally to prevent speculation or arbitrage.
Such fund can be used for the RATIONAL FUNDING and DISASTER MANAGEMENT of Sovereign nations or Territories on a non-repayable, non interest bearing basis in order to address financial, social and natural disasters. Taxation should be used as the secondary funding of nations to promotepolitical aims (eg military objectives, etc). Soon, the taxpaying electorate will be more selective of Government mis-allocation of non-essential expenditures.
FOLLOW UP OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC CRISIS - 26 MAY 2012
SOME OBSERVATIONS FROM A GOLD MINE NEAR L. VICTORIA, TANZANIA)
Over the past six months a number of events can be highlighted as leading indicators of future trends in world economics:
1) Greece received some debt relief on its debt through a 'haircut' scheme, with promises of a new financial package from the ECB/IMF provided it agreed to austerity cutbacks. An interim government of National Unity was formed to agree on the New , Austerity Package, followed by new elections that saw the PASOK Governing party relegated to 3rd place, the rise of socialist left support due to a badly disappointed Greek society, inability to form a clear majority Government by any party, appointment of a New interim Government until mid-June 2012 when another election is due.
The Greek economy has shrunk due to the austerity measures imposed, unemployment has risen above 21%, unprecedented increase in suicides reported, billions of Euro withdrawn from the Banks due to fear of return to the drachma,reported flight of wealth deposits out of Greece and purchases of London properties mentioned in the press, property prices have dropped, and UK preparing strategies to curb potential immigration from Greece if Greece converts to the drachma. Earlier today Lloyd confirmed their expectation of Grexit from Euro. As a result, the Athens Stock Exchange has dropped to 400 points from 1400 points two years ago.
2) Spanish Banks are starting to crack and the Spanish Government stepping in to prevent a banking collapse or a run on the banks, with unemployment reported at 25%. In effect, European Banking Authorities are supporting banks to recapitalise through low interest money (at 1% pa) so that these banks can in turn buy Government bonds to support sovereign debtors from defaulting (Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland...)
3)Sarkozy lost the French elections with Socialists taking the lead on the slogan of GROWTH instead of Austerity.
4) BBC reported on the collapse of the Spanish and Irish Property Markets due to the uncontrolled banking loans that had created unsustainable 'false values' and false demand based on speculation and hunger for 'banking returns' greed. A $70 bn Irish Property Development was reportedly repossessed and would possibly only realise $10 bn recoupment!
5) With exception the German, and some North European Economies, Europeans are in recession and there are constant strikes or demonstrations by the unemplyed masses and the working class population for government policy changes. The UK also has confirmed that it is in recession.
6)There are signs that the G8 countries are not in agreement and do not have a plan for a common economic policy. Germany (Merkel) supporting austerity and discipline whilst USA, France and UK favouring money supply relaxation and growth strategies.
7) The US has started to impose 20% import duties on Chinese goods, due to the artificially low value of the Chinese Currency and there are signs of Trade Protectionism emerging. There are also signs that both the Chinese and the US economy has started to slow down
8) The N. African and Arab political situation has become unstable, with the Arab Spring impacting peoples of these regions (Lybia, Syria, Egypt....)
9) Global Industrial Giant Corporations are still reporting record profits, but keeping a cash or near cash position instead of reinvesting in new productive and employment creation projects.
COMMENT:
If one applies Root Cause Theory, could one have predicted which single event in recent policy or economic behaviour of politicians led to this Global Demise of Economies and suffering of working class populations? Maybe this is the area that the greatest thinkers of our time should concentrate, so as to come up with sustainable economic strategies for a better outlook, and to give hope to the unemployed masses facing uncertainty and humiliating living conditions....
Peter V from Africa
27 May 2012
Thursday, 31 May 2012
NOTE FROM TANANIA:
In interesting conversations, I have suggested that the ROLE OF STOCK EXCHANGES and Capital Formation has changed with globalisation and speed of connectivity. Instead of Capital Formation for a return on investment, stock exchanges have become 'SPECULATION FOR QUICK PROFIT' centres, alsmost based on Casino Models, with limited requirement for skill to make a call. Fundamental principles of investment decisions have been replaced by 'herd mentality' 'quick buck' impulsive action.
Therefore, the basis of Capital Formation by the non-public sector in Free Markets has completely changed and needs to be re-designed or re-aligned to future needs of society for growth economics and employment creation by private capital.
Lets re-examaine the DELIVERABLES required from a Stock Exchange in order to accummulate risk capital for INVESTMENT PURPOSES in employment expansion opportunities.
Peter V - Near Lake Victoria, Africa
Posted by WHAT-IF? at 04:52
THOUGHTS ON EXPORT MENTALITY OF NATIONAL / REGIONAL ECONOMIES
Since ancient times, trading was an opportunity identified by merchants to supply goods from inaccessible markets with unique or niche products eg. spices from India, silk from China etc. PRICES FOR GOODS WERE NEGOTIATED based on barter of alternative goods or instruments of exchange such as gold coins.
In current times, goods for export are in general priced to produce additional MARGINAL income, over and above any income generated by local sales. As long as the price attained exceeds the variable cost to produce these goods, there is profit to be made over and above local sales. This in turn leads to higher volumes of production,economies of scale, capital investment access due to increased sales volumes, investment in new technologies that reduces unit costs further or develop intellectual property protection through investments on R&D for innovation and therefore the ability to drop or manipulate marginal pricing so as to increase volumes further until a market is saturated and competitors have either gone out of business, or been bought out or rationalised with the market leaders.
It is thus feasible to imagine that 'export growth mentality' can be a recipe for market domination by oligopolisic cartels following basic business principles of competitive free market theory. ALL GOOD, PROVIDED THE PROFITS MADE are re-invested to create new productive capacity and new employment opportunities.
The other effect of such trends is the shift of productive capacity to different geographic regions, closure of the smaller lesser competitive facilities, and creation of mega factories with lower labour inputs per unit output. So we can thus conclude that progress to BIG for competitive advantage will not necessarily provide the additional equitable employment opportunities that need to be created for an increasing population. It may in fact lead to the situation where regions have to depreciate their rewards via currency depreciqation or lowering of living wages if they wish to remain competitive to retain or gain market share.
It is thus perceivable that with the current economic models of globalisation in a non-regulated free market system, extremes in social disparity are likely to be propagated unless a 'humanitarian' modelis conceived to re-deploy and employ the emerging 'unemployed masses' in new activities relating to the need for infrastucture improvement of previously under privilleged or underdeveloped societies - The need is to move away from consummerism which will be dominated by the Mega-Factories, to GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTAL PROJECTS such as energy-efficient transportation and infrastructure, water, green energy, food sufficiency, health care and education.
The question is who should pay for it? The answers lie in previous chapters of this post, where Sovereign Financing and Disaster is decoupled from the Private Capital or Loan Banking System through the co-ordinated action of the main currency blocks (eg the G20 or the G8 Group of Nations).
Peter V from
Johannesburg
1 June 2012
FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT?
I BELIEVE WE NEED TO THINK OUT OF THE BOX for the future governance of humanity.
We need
1) new financial models that can decouple financing of humanitarian/ poverty alleviation / infrastructure / disaster funding from political / military / subsidy funding
2) new government models that consist of a FIXED non-political component that manages the society needs of a Region like a professional skilled business organisation (eg basic needs such as water, roads, green power strategy, basic healthcare, education, basic security & disaster support, etc) and a much smaller VARIABLE component which is politically motivated and elected based on the political demands and aspirations of the population group (eg military and intelligence objectives, taxation policy setting, regional image and promotion, etc)
3) new taxation models and government financing, that recognise the need for FIAT or QE money for disasters and infrastructural spend (National Asset Building Projects such as Dams, Road networks, basic healthcare, etc) vs political agenda spending such as military equipping, discretionary non-essential spending. This thinking would lead to reduction of National Debts and political responsibility.
4) new roles for insurance companies, (back to basics) where insurance companies will focus on commercial risk, and Disaster FIAT Financing will take care of natural, social and economic (unemployment) disasters
5) new roles for banking and investment groups, where private capital must be invested to create value as measured by new ventures, industrial & mining expansion and employment levels, with a much reduced 'speculative' component (eg arbitrage between markets and currencies, oligopolistic market and pricing manipulation, etc.)
6) international focus to FINANCE INFRASTRUCTURE & ADDRESS INADEQUECIES OF HISTORICALLY DISADVANTAGED REGIONS, EDUCATION SYSTEMS, HEALTHCARE & INFRASTRUCTURE. (eg miseries and hardships brought about by colonial systems, military interventions, exploitation, etc - eg Africa has high unemployment, high population rates, low education and low life expectancy due to limited commercial and industrial employment , which in turn was caused by chronic lack of Road & Transport Infrastructure and low investment levels by the historically rich communities.
WHAT IF... we could start now to design a perfect society for our grandchildren and create a FUTURE IDEAL for humanity, devoid of racism, religious or class distinction, but based on respect for our fellow human beings?
I am available to participate and contribute in a global project to develop and implement the foundations of GLOBAL CHANGE & SOCIO-POLITICAL EVOLUTION WITHOUT REVOLUTION!
Peter V - from Johannesburg
Posted as a comment in The Telegraph & Ekathimerini on 13th March 2015
Long Term Vision for a New World Order of Economic Stability & Growth (My recommendation):SCRAP TAXATION IN EVERY WAY OR FORM
1. Instead of taxation and debt, Governments globally to finance their social and infrastructural budgets by FIAT printing of money (own sovereign currency) annually. This can lead to free education & health for every one on the planet, and other social needs (clean water in Africa, road infrastructures eg in DRC, without Government Debt
2. Such money printing to be constrained by a 2% money growth say, per Milton Friedman's (Chicago School) theory to limit inflation.
3. No one ever pays taxes (No Private, No Corporate, No cross border taxes)
4. No more need for Tax Havens, No Tax free Zones, No Tax Breaks - This will level the playing fields and encourage Free Trade
4. No need for expensive, non value add tax auditors, tax inspectors, tax departments, tax collectors, intricate tax avoidance keys,......
WHY:
A) MORE MONEY IN YOUR POCKET FOR INVESTMENTS, GOODS, SERVICES, LEISURE AND THEREFORE NO UNEMPLOYMENT
B) IMPROVED HUMAN LIVING CONDITIONS, ELIMINATION OF DESPARATION AND ADVANCED QUALITY OF LIFE,
C) OPPORTUNTY TO PLAN PROPERLY FOR GREEN ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTERS MANAGEMENT..
D) INSTITUTIONAL MONEY BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE INVESTMENT, NOT TO SUPPORT T-BILLS, GOVERNMENT BONDS, ETC. MORE CHANCE TO INVEST IN EMPLOYMENT CREATION OPPORTUNITIES & RESEARCH..
DOWNSIDE: If countries overprint money beyond money growth targets, exchange rates possibly suffer and internal (localised) inflation will level the playing fields again....
IMPLEMENTATION: via UN adoption of non-political, non religious based Global Pledge for the betterment of mankind ...Countries to amend their Constitution & Bill of Rights scrap all forms of Taxation and allow Governments to print own money on the basis of social expenditure needs and infrastructural cash flow requirements per specific time period (eg one year)
Takis V from JHB
GREEK CRISIS REVISITED - COMMENTS PLACED IN THE TELEGRAPH 13/3/2015
My assessment of the basic issues of the current crisis as follows:
- The Troika MoU although initially designed to bring about a solution to the Greek debt repayment, led to a number of socially unacceptable problems for any society:
1) A five year regression of GDP
2) A humanitarian crisis of unprecedented magnitude of poverty, suicides, loss of dignity, loss of personal assets of a large section of the population as they had to sell properties etc at unrealistically depressed prices in order to survive the daily living of extended family support structures
3) Unilateral reductions in pensions & wages that were perceived as 'solely to repay the bankers' never mind the deterioration of the economic fabric through negative multiplier effect
4) A self feeding 'recession' due to the ever-reducing disposable incomes and money in economic circulation due to the austerity.
5) Loss of confidence by any investors in the Austerity Programme outcomes, hence zero Private Investments for job creation
6) Unemployment levels never seen or worse than the 1929 Great Depression without any indication of a New Deal or Infrastructural spend to reverse unemployment (26-29 % Average unemployment and 60% for youth under 30)
7) Loss of confidence in the Government by the people that things could improve, despite a .7% GDP apparent growth in 2014 (vs 2.6% pa deflation!)
8) Loss of confidence in the European partners willingness to reschedule or review the MoU by lifting some austerity requirements
9) Capital flight due to overall loss of confidence in anyone
MY PROPOSAL: There has to be a realisation that Austerity Policies DO NOT WORK as evident by the GR 5 year experiment. Return of confidence (by negotiation in Good Faith by all parties, EU and GR and ND and Syriza) is an absolute MUST if the GR vehicle is to be brought back on the Autobahn of Growth and Prosperity so that the finance partners (Troika) can be assured of a relatively risk-free repayment of Debt. Good econometric modelling to work out Viable Scenaria would probably be necessary, not some hot-headed political statements to promote hatred.
One must always look at Root Causes WHY things happen, and WHAT is the real underlying problem/s. My assessment is that the real problem is NO CONFIDENCE TO INVEST IN GREECE that goes back at least 5 years, hence the economy depended on draining cash from taxpayers to meet obligations, instead of relying on a new tax base of a growing economy. HENCE the austerity HENCE the MoU (Mnemonio) HENCE reduced circulation of money in the internal economy of GR, HENCE more begging from Troika, HENCE.....Current struggle for survival. And yes, there was lots of corruption, mistakes, indecision to proceed with Lagarde List ( Hidden Agendas of the Elite Club?) etc etc....
The time has come for Greeks to forget politics and put together a Government of National Unity without links to political party politics, maybe international experts and well educated persons (Like it was in South Africa with Mandela & De Klerk) to plot a HIGH ROAD to the FUTURE of GREECE. They must do what's good for Greece- Get investments to flow back to create employment opportunities to REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT and improve INFRASTRUCTURE to international levels. That will be the only way that the EC Partners and Investors are going to regain any confidence in GR -
The alternative: get a bigger begging bowl every year and every Government elect for the next few Generations...
Makes me think GR has no strategy.
Must do a SWOT Analysis and focus to develop strengths of the Climate, country, agri-projects, bio projects, aqua projects, lots of unutilised countryside, etc where the employment per Euro investment will be highest and lead to quick reductions in unemployment levels, and then on to improved outlook and hence confidence again...
Mandela was a TRUE LEADER that listened to all sides, and got experts in their field to guide him, irrespective whether black, white, European, American or Russian. Clem Sunter was a guiding academic light to Mandela with his personal efforts and backing of corporate South Africa to expose the benefits and dangers of Hi-Road / Lo Road Scenarios for the country. Mandela Listened and showed the Way Forward. Does GR have any Leader like that at present???
Eurozone can't survive in current form, says PIMCO
Single currency area must become a "United States of Europe" in order to secure its future, says manager of world's largest bond fund
The Economic Casino of minute by minute currency volatility is creating artificial comparative values of countries or currency blocs, but is the preferred model of speculation for profit by the big institutions that can mobilise billion trades and create 'market runs'. WHAT IF by international or IMF or World Bank intervention, relative currency rates were fixed / pegged on a quarterly or annual basis according to a model of trade movement volumes across borders, money creation and relative GDP growth? Elimination of speculative currency trading would bring about a managed level of stability, hence less cyclical boom or bust crises which may be the preferred option for stability of employment. It would further level the playing fields of artificial devaluation and Reserve/ Federal Bank interferences that lead to export 'dumping'.
Any Comments on such proposals?
Posted as a comment on 13th March 2015
Long Term Vision for a New World Order of Economic Stability & Growth (My recommendation):SCRAP TAXATION IN EVERY WAY OR FORM
1. Instead of taxation and debt, Governments globally to finance their social and infrastructural budgets by FIAT printing of money (own sovereign currency) annually. This can lead to free education & health for every one on the planet, and other social needs (clean water in Africa, road infrastructures eg in DRC, without Government Debt
2. Such money printing to be constrained by a 2% money growth say, per Milton Friedman's (Chicago School) theory to limit inflation.
3. No one ever pays taxes (No Private, No Corporate, No cross border taxes)
4. No more need for Tax Havens, No Tax free Zones, No Tax Breaks - This will level the playing fields and encourage Free Trade
4. No need for expensive, non value add tax auditors, tax inspectors, tax departments, tax collectors, intricate tax avoidance keys,......
WHY:
A) MORE MONEY IN YOUR POCKET FOR INVESTMENTS, GOODS, SERVICES, LEISURE AND THEREFORE NO UNEMPLOYMENT
B) IMPROVED HUMAN LIVING CONDITIONS, ELIMINATION OF DESPARATION AND ADVANCED QUALITY OF LIFE,
C) OPPORTUNTY TO PLAN PROPERLY FOR GREEN ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTERS MANAGEMENT..
D) INSTITUTIONAL MONEY BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE INVESTMENT, NOT TO SUPPORT T-BILLS, GOVERNMENT BONDS, ETC. MORE CHANCE TO INVEST IN EMPLOYMENT CREATION OPPORTUNITIES & RESEARCH..
DOWNSIDE: If countries overprint money beyond money growth targets, exchange rates possibly suffer and internal (localised) inflation will level the playing fields again....
IMPLEMENTATION: via UN adoption of non-political, non religious based Global Pledge for the betterment of mankind ...Countries to amend their Constitution & Bill of Rights scrap all forms of Taxation and allow Governments to print own money on the basis of social expenditure needs and infrastructural cash flow requirements per specific time period (eg one year)
And here comes the OUT OF THE BOX thinking:
1. Each Gov creates The National Reserve Bank that belongs to the Nation, not private shareholders.
2. This new body can print Fiat Money, or issue QE 'electronic' money but only to Central Government
3. Because it belongs to the nation, this Fiat Creation does not carry interest and never gets repaid, but keeps a tally of the periodic and cumulative Fiat issued to the National Gov.
4. This new body has a constitution that follows UN decree on the agreed money supply growth % in order to avoid inter-country exchange rate imbalances
5. The Tax and Gove Debt in existence is reduced in Straight Line manner over an agreed long term period eg 10 years to avoid overstimulation (see Milton Friedman's Money Supply Theory).
6. After a few years we have created a ZERO TAX SOCIETY with new international rules and co-operation.
7. Any difference in Fiat Growth issue between countries is self regulated via exchange rate fluctuations
Telegraph Comment: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/11472336/Currency-wars-threaten-Lehman-style-crisis.html#comment-1907630064
Now is the time for a rethink of our Financial System and specifically why sovereign countries can finance their budget in new ways which are unorthodox and replace old school mentalities. My thoughts, for the future of Global economic survival and prosperity is a Long Term Vision for a New World Order of Economic Stability &
Growth (My recommendation):SCRAP TAXATION IN EVERY WAY OR FORM
1. Instead of taxation and debt, Governments globally to finance their social
and infrastructural budgets by FIAT printing of money (own sovereign currency)
annually. This can lead to free education & health for every one on the
planet, and other social needs (clean water in Africa, road infrastructures eg
in DRC, without Government Debt
2. Such money printing to be constrained by a 2% money growth say, per Milton
Friedman's (Chicago School) theory to limit inflation.
3. No one ever pays taxes (No Private, No Corporate, No cross border taxes)
4. No more need for Tax Havens, No Tax free Zones, No Tax Breaks - This will
level the playing fields and encourage Free Trade
4. No need for expensive, non value add tax auditors, tax inspectors, tax
departments, tax collectors, intricate tax avoidance keys,......
WHY:
A) MORE MONEY IN YOUR POCKET FOR INVESTMENTS, GOODS, SERVICES, LEISURE AND
THEREFORE NO UNEMPLOYMENT
B) IMPROVED HUMAN LIVING CONDITIONS, ELIMINATION OF DESPARATION AND ADVANCED
QUALITY OF LIFE,
C) OPPORTUNTY TO PLAN PROPERLY FOR GREEN ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTERS
MANAGEMENT..
D) INSTITUTIONAL MONEY BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE INVESTMENT, NOT TO SUPPORT
T-BILLS, GOVERNMENT BONDS, ETC. MORE CHANCE TO INVEST IN EMPLOYMENT CREATION
OPPORTUNITIES & RESEARCH..
DOWNSIDE: If countries overprint money beyond money growth targets, exchange
rates possibly suffer and internal (localised) inflation will level the playing
fields again....
IMPLEMENTATION: via UN adoption of non-political, non religious based Global
Pledge for the betterment of mankind ...Countries to amend their Constitution
& Bill of Rights scrap all forms of Taxation and allow Governments to print
own money on the basis of social expenditure needs and infrastructural cash
flow requirements per specific time period (eg one year)
CRITIQUE: Any criticism must be supported with rational logic as to WHY NOT
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strateshooter > TakisV • 2 hours ago
Very interesting post...lots of good ideas.
One concern though...
Politicians buy power thru promising free stuff (funded thru taxes and debt).
If politicians had no real spending constraints ( and I believe this is the flaw in your argument : they are the lawmakers and so would just change the law to let them print cash as needed) then they would flood their economies with cash and hyper inflation would ensue.
Very interesting post though. I am willing to listen to any argument that reduces the power and corruption of the current parasitic Central/Private Banking cartel who pose a bigger threat to us that ISIS , Al Queda and Putin combined.
TakisV > strateshooter • 4 minutes ago
The premise of such system would be:
a) The Constitutional protection of a country on limits to money growth. Perhaps some form of quarterly / annual reporting to a UN watchdog will raise alarm of unconstitutional practices in a country, which in turn will alert their electorate to reconsider their political allegiance and force referendums or elections towards a more responsible government. Perhaps politicians will then be responsible to their electorate, and not pushed by Finance /Bank / Institutional Money interests....
b) Any over-printing of money beyond the norms or limits to be agreed will cause not only internal inflation, but also an exchange rate rebalancing relative to a representative global basket of currencies. This will keep the 'real' value creation in check in each country. As private individuals, investors and institutional capital is averse to value erosion of their assets, they will hopefully provide the necessary braking mechanism on the printing presses.
c) Perhaps any Fiat authorisation / money printing should be controlled via crypto currency transfers from a UN watchdog organisation (?)...This may make it more difficult for individual countries to exceed agreed money growth targets.
THE CHALLENGES:
(1) When a country's political, military or security related aspirations require excessive money growth ( eg to build up or modernise their armies, perhaps in preparation for conflict with other countries or a military coup for political control) , then we could find Weimar Type Hyperinflation conditions developing, but which in turn will cause exchange rate mechanisms to come into play and level the playing fields. ( Perhaps this is what the Communist Regimes of the past resorted to in order to maintain military research & military strength).
(2) When politicians act irrationally, and begin rewarding themselves and their partisan supporters with unwarranted rewards, or establish excessive social expenditure shocks, there will be a skewing of benefits to the electorate and inflationary pressures will creep in
(3) When Institutional Money starts chasing up stock prices and manipulate markets through 'short term' gambling of capital instead of long term investment for growth and prosperity and employment, a mechanism needs to be in place for damage control and supply- side or demand-side inflationary pressures
HOWEVER, all of the above happens today, with our current economic models....No reason not to proceed with Think Tanks, Workshops and Evaluations at every single University Faculty or Business Forum in the world in order to arrive at a New World Order of ZERO TAXATION ANYWHERE FOR AYTHING...
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rycK > TakisV • 6 hours ago
"Such money printing to be constrained by a 2% money growth say, per Milton Friedman's (Chicago School) theory to limit inflation."
Good economics.
Who can keep this rule in competitive currency wars?? Everybody will cheat.
Msdcs > TakisV • 9 hours ago
it is a very old theory and even has a name, but any economist putting it forward is discredited and barred from any Nobel prize, the ruling elite are those that benefit from creating money as debt as they get the interest, the USA has tried to do it twice but both presidents were shot, until you get rid of the royals and nobles you cant change the system as that is how they get their huge wealth.
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TakisV > Msdcs • 9 hours ago
It will only work if adopted by the whole world and the masses are educated simply in the merits of such system. The UN has to play a leading role, but need lots of Varoufakises to promote this doctrine. I am willing to give it a go....
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Msdcs > TakisV • 9 hours ago
the royals don't work are you suggesting they work, creating money as debt keeps them extremely rich and they wont give that up.
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TakisV > Msdcs • 9 hours ago
Must look to the common good of humanity, not individual power abusers. Got to imitate Plato, Socrates, Aristotle and every wise philosopher since
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rycK > TakisV • 6 hours ago
"Must look to the common good of humanity, not individual power abusers."
This has never happened.
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barryobarma • 24 minutes ago
The emerging markets have not been complaining - they have been saved by US and UK currency printing which funded imports.
The problem -> the emerging markets have borrowed $9trillion to fund infrastructure and commercial growth, at rock bottom rates.
Unfortunately, most of this debt was incurred outside their domestic banking systems, and is now subject to dollar revaluation.
They are hoist by their own petard.
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TakisV > barryobarma • a minute ago
Infrastructure for underdeveloped countries (eg African road networks, water, health, education) is dealing with old social disasters of colonisation and political strife. Natural Disasters (Tsunami's, Floods. Earthquakes) are unpredictable; Economic disasters are the result of traditional mismanaged financing of Governments.
DISASTERS (which are implicated in the $9Trillion above) should have never, and never should be financed by debt to bankers and Financial Institutions or interest bearing repayable loans. They should by financed by a type of International Basket of UN FIAT DISASTER money and treated as donations, All such debts eliminated from Government Balance Sheets!
The alternative Model: ZERO TAX SOCIETY - See my post below...
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strateshooter • 3 hours ago
a good article but could have been summarized as follows..
a debt bomb exploded in 2008 whereby it became evident that Western Govs and economies could not support the debt created over past 20 years.
To avert bankruptcies and social chaos Western Govs launched QE ...instant electronic money creation... to keep the show on the road.
Same situation applies today 7 years later...too much debt , too much spending , too little growth.
Solution...rinse and repeat. QE is easy option versus hard option ( which no Western pol will do).
Cause of all this ? Govs , Bankers and the Investor Class.
Winners of all this QE to solve problem? Govs + The Investor Class + Bankers.
Losers ? Joe Public , who despite gov lies , has seen massive inflation of living costs due to excess , devalued fiat cash in the system.
All in all..a great RIP OFF by the powerful of the powerless. Massive fraud , no one goes to jail.
The upcoming GE is a farce. We are all under Central Banker control now.
Solution ? God knows ?
A Gandhi like mass resistance movement to Central Bankers power or mass issue of weapons to the citizenry for use when QE is announced ? Depends on ones patience level I guess ?
Our politicians have sold out meaningful democracy though.
QE is blazingly dangerous since it removes gov spending link from taxation and public consensus.Politicians do not need us if they do not need our cash.
And if they do not need us we have no power over them. And that is scary.
In the meantime...buy shares , buy houses , buy Gold. Buy anything.
Cash is Trash and is becomingly increasingly so.
The rich are getting richer and you are getting poor and it is all being deliberately engineered by Central Bankers to protect existing wealth and power.
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•
Reply
•
DavEd CamerBand > strateshooter • an hour ago
i prefer to say that the usa made $trillions of poor quality home loans to get their economy going and then laundered these loans around the globe as AAA securities.. literally swapping their bad debt for our good (relatively) money. nothing less than theft and in spite of stealing all those trillions they are still up to their eyeballs in debt
Adrasteia • an hour ago
Goodbye, greece - you are a terrible people, constantly holding out your hand for others' money to fund your decreptitude. Go, and don't come back. Greedy, cheating, rude, slothful, arrogant people. Shocking even, to write this and know that i'm not exaggerating.
TakisV > Adrasteia • 30 minutes ago
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11551536/Greek-bank-shares-slide-to-record-low-as-ECB-considers-pulling-the-plug.html
Go study Nelson Mandela..... All peoples are good with the right leadership. Negotiation IN GOOD FAITH is what's required to smooth over a badly designed 'austerity programme. GR Gov published openly the dysfunctions caused in a society thru a failed experiment. The Troika must also see this and not negotiate with hidden agendas - As proven by Geithner's latest book where he exposes Germany's agenda in 2012 to expel GR from the Euro.
All parties must negotiate on basis of a workable & practical solution with achievable, SMART action plans to match - not just politicking for their party politics.
TakisV > pumpernickel • 3 days ago
A Solution: ZERO TAX SOCIETY WORLDWIDE!
Now is the time for a rethink of our Financial System and
specifically why sovereign countries can finance their budget in new ways which are unorthodox and replace old school mentalities. My thoughts, for the future of Global economic survival and prosperity is a Long Term Vision for a New World Order of Economic Stability & Growth (My recommendation):SCRAP TAXATION IN EVERY WAY OR FORM
1. Instead of taxation and debt, Governments globally to
finance their social and infrastructural budgets by FIAT printing of money (own sovereign currency) annually. This can lead to free education & health for every one on the planet, and other social needs (clean water in Africa, road infrastructures eg in DRC, without Government Debt
2. Such money printing to be constrained by a 2% money
growth say, per Milton
Friedman's (Chicago School) theory to limit inflation.
3. No one ever pays taxes (No Private, No Corporate, No
cross border taxes)
4. No more need for Tax Havens, No Tax free Zones, No Tax
Breaks - This will
level the playing fields and encourage Free Trade
4. No need for expensive, non value add tax auditors, tax
inspectors, tax
departments, tax collectors, intricate tax avoidance
keys,......
WHY:
A) MORE MONEY IN YOUR POCKET FOR INVESTMENTS, GOODS,
SERVICES, LEISURE AND
THEREFORE NO UNEMPLOYMENT
B) IMPROVED HUMAN LIVING CONDITIONS, ELIMINATION OF
DESPARATION AND ADVANCED
QUALITY OF LIFE,
C) OPPORTUNTY TO PLAN PROPERLY FOR GREEN ENERGY, CLIMATE
CHANGE, DISASTERS
MANAGEMENT..
D) INSTITUTIONAL MONEY BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR PRIVATE
INVESTMENT, NOT TO SUPPORT
T-BILLS, GOVERNMENT BONDS, ETC. MORE CHANCE TO INVEST IN
EMPLOYMENT CREATION
OPPORTUNITIES & RESEARCH..
DOWNSIDE: If countries overprint money beyond money growth
targets, exchange
rates possibly suffer and internal (localised) inflation
will level the playing
fields again....
IMPLEMENTATION: via UN adoption of non-political, non
religious based Global
Pledge for the betterment of mankind ...Countries to amend
their Constitution
& Bill of Rights scrap all forms of Taxation and allow
Governments to print
own money on the basis of social expenditure needs and
infrastructural cash
flow requirements per specific time period (eg one year)
CRITIQUE: Any criticism must be supported with rational
logic as to WHY NOT
TakisV > socalbeachdude • 2 days ago
Every country prints QE money, without the need for repayment or interest, so they can finance their opereational and infrastructural spend in a controlled manner.. Per US and UK and Japan, modified so that countries do not have to contribute to the wealth of the banking or the Institutional Investors. (Over time, no more debt or taxation required, private capital not to invest in Gov Bonds, but towards real job creation, longer term private investments, with a monitoring system which would penalise short term 'speculative gambling'.
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socalbeachdude > TakisV • 2 days ago
Those are bogus and false assertions. The US government, for instance, CANNOT PRINT A SINGLE DOLLAR OF MONEY and the entire US money supply is controlled by the Federal Reserve which is a separate and distinct entity from the US government.
As to QE, you have entirely bogus notions regarding what it is and what it isn't. Not a single penny of the Federal Reserve's versions of QE EVER EVER THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND 100% OF THE QE FUNDS ALWAYS REMAINED INSIDE THE FEDERAL RESERVE
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TakisV > socalbeachdude • a day ago
And here comes the OUT OF THE BOX thinking:
1. Each Gov creates The National Reserve Bank that belongs to the Nation, not private shareholders.
2. This new body can print Fiat Money, or issue QE 'electronic' money but only to Central Government
3. Because it belongs to the nation, this Fiat Creation does not carry interest and never gets repaid, but keeps a tally of the periodic and cumulative Fiat issued to the National Gov.
4. This new body has a constitution that follows UN decree on the agreed money supply growth % in order to avoid inter-country exchange rate imbalances
5. The Tax and Gove Debt in existence is reduced in Straight Line manner over an agreed long term period eg 10 years to avoid overstimulation (see Milton Friedman's Money Supply Theory).
6. After a few years we have created a ZERO TAX SOCIETY with new international rules and co-operation.
7. Any difference in Fiat Growth issue between countries is self regulated via exchange rate fluctuations
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socalbeachdude • 3 days ago
Once the Greek banking system is taken over by Deutsche Bank for pennies on the dollar, there will be a great investing opportunity in Deutsche Bank!
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socalbeachdude • 3 days ago
What is urgently needed in regards to the Greek banking system is STRINGENT CAPITAL CONTROLS which should have been implemented 5 years ago on all Greek banks including the Central Bank of Greece. There should be very strict limits regarding any capital flows out of Greece (except as to payments to the Institutions on the Greek debt obligations) and very stringent withdrawal limits on all funds within Greek banks including near total elimination of cash withdrawals for any purpose.
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socalbeachdude • 3 days ago
GREECE WILL COMPLY AS IT MUST WITH THE INSTITUTIONS
Greece isn’t preparing default - Tsipras dispels rumor
Greece isn’t planning a debt default, contrary to reports in the Financial Times, says Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
"Greece ... is not preparing for any debt default and the same goes for its lenders. Negotiations are proceeding swiftly towards a mutually beneficial solution," Prime Minister Tsipras' office said in a statement, Reuters reported.
Greece is scheduled to make several payments to the IMF in the next few months. On May 1 €203 million is due, another €770 million on May 12, and about another €1.6 billion in June in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), an artificial currency created by the IMF that the institution uses to give out extra funds.
http://rt.com/business/249477-...
socalbeachdude • 3 days ago
The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun - By Michael Snyder
Get ready for another major worldwide credit crunch. Today, the entire global financial system resembles a colossal spiral of debt.
Just about all economic activity involves the flow of credit in some way, and so the only way to have “economic growth” is to introduce even more debt into the system. When the system started to fail back in 2008, global authorities responded by pumping this debt spiral back up and getting it to spin even faster than ever. If you can believe it, the total amount of global debt has risen by $35 trillion since the last crisis.
Unfortunately, any system based on debt is going to break down eventually, and there are signs that it is starting to happen once again. For example, just a few days ago the IMF warned regulators to prepare for a global “liquidity shock“. And on Friday, Chinese authorities announced a ban on certain types of financing for margin trades on over-the-counter stocks, and we learned that preparations are being made behind the scenes in Europe for a Greek debt default and a Greek exit from the eurozone.
On top of everything else, we just witnessed the biggest spike in credit application rejections ever recorded in the United States. All of these are signs that credit conditions are tightening, and once a “liquidity squeeze” begins, it can create a lot of fear.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog...
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socalbeachdude • 3 days ago
GREEK BANKING ISSUES CONTAINED TO GREECE
Quarantine for Greek bank subsidiaries in neighboring countries
Neighboring countries have effectively quarantined Greece in a bid to minimize the consequences on their credit systems in case of a Greek “accident.”
Kathimerini understands that the central banks of Albania, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Romania, Serbia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia have all forced the subsidiaries of Greek banks operating in those countries to bring their exposure to Greek risk (bonds, treasury bills, deposits to Greek banks, loans etc.) down to zero in order to shield themselves and minimize the danger of contagion in case the negotiations between the Greek government and the eurozone do not bear fruit.
This quarantine was deemed necessary after the aggressive rhetoric of the new Greek government – particularly in the first few weeks after the election – regarding a debt restructuring, the non-completion of the creditors’ assessment and so on.
http://ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/...
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socalbeachdude • 3 days ago
The Euro certainly has not "caused such economic and social hardship" at all for anyone. That assertion is just a load of blatantly false rubbish. The economic problems primarily are contained to the PIIGS and those problems have NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH THE EURO but rather to do with profligate and stupid government spending and structural issues in their economies which would be there regardless of any currency used by those countries.
As to global trade, the EU is now at record high levels of global trade and what is declining sharply is China which just saw its EXPORTS PLUNGE 15% LAST MONTH.
China's March exports shrink 15 percent year-on-year in shock fall
http://www.reuters.com/article...
If one splits the financial support received into:
1)Military Spend (1800 Tanks, Subs, fighter jets)
2)Infrastructural spend on GR projects, which are welcomed but resulted in 'imports of equipment, technology, skills, etc
3) Commissions, Fees, Bribes, Interest and Finance Costs
then, a different picture of Greek Debt emerges, with the epiphany that GR debt benefited N Europe extensively, rather than provide the internal long term investments needed to sustain employment in GR
TakisV • 42 minutes ago
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11611168/Greece-has-no-money-to-pay-the-IMF-Alexis-Tsipras-warned-creditors.html
Root cause of current issues partly lies in Investment Choice of DEBT. Most GR Debt arose out of investments in infrastructure and military equipment, that yield NO PERPETUAL INCOME OR GROWTH in employment. HENCE, there was no regeneration of capital to repay Debt, etc, etc.
LESSONS TO BE LEARNT BY CREDITORS: Debt to be used for growth projects, Donations to be used to help develop infrastructures, NATO to foot the bill of EU Defence Machinery & Armaments, IOC to be responsible for developing Olympic Infrastructure and maintaining that from IOC TV Royalty income.
OUTCOME: Less real State Debts, Improved investment channelling towards growth in employment,, Upgrade of run down or underdeveloped regions through donations or debt forgiveness, Common EU sharing of the Defence & Security burden
uboot65 • 2 hours ago
Finally Greece will have to accept where it really stands: a failed state, unable to collect taxes, an economy that is based on consumption (with borrowed money) rather than production, more than 10% working in the public sector (not because of their qualification but their party membership card), few rich refusing to pay taxes, an economy based on feta cheese and olives (both subsidised by European taxpayers), corrupt and unable politicians, people thinking that a state is something evil...IMHO they should start from the beginning. No more Gucci handbags but hard work, tax paying and finally a currency called Drachme...
TakisV > uboot65 • 2 hours ago
Consumption & Retail Biz good if money comes from tourists.
GR NOT an export economy to be competitive in manufacturing, but can capitalise on other strengths (Antiquities, Sea, Sun, Beaches, Fun People, Mykonos & Santorini Weddings,.....
aiyannis > • an hour ago
The Syriza plan is against private enterprise investment. Instead they favor state run businesses such as hotels etc. Recipe to ruin.
aiyannis > • an hour ago
Perhaps you should read the Syriza manifesto.
The New Flyer > aiyannis • 2 hours ago
I'm afraid the country was "ruined" long before Syriza took over. In a perverse way, it might be better in the long run to default under Syriza than to limp along permanently under the diktats of the Troika.
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aiyannis > The New Flyer • 2 hours ago
What a lot of people don't realise is that Greece needs a steady stream of European money to pay for the expenses of the state. A default will achieve nothing if the next day Greece will need another loan. Since it is excluded from the markets the only lender of last resort is the EU and the IMF. I am afraid you are stuck with the Troika forever. Unless of course you reduce the expenditure of the state.
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TakisV > aiyannis • an hour ago
OR improve Tax Collection efficiency.
VAT evasion was identified as the biggest culprit. Solution proposed to have a 2 tier VAT Rate (18% for CASH and 15% for CARD transactions)
This could be the magic key to get income, especially during Tourist CASH Season
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Badger007 • 3 hours ago
Bloomberg Source to the Irish Times
Investors dumped Greek bonds on Monday as the country’s precarious finances and reluctance to carry out reforms suggested it would struggle to make a key debt payment due next month.
In a leaked internal memo, first disclosed by Britain’s Channel 4 on Saturday, the International Monetary Fund acknowledged Greece had little chance of making the payment on June 5th and said it would not be pushed into a “quick and dirty” review to disburse further bailout funds to Athens.
Prime minister Alexis Tsipras had warned Greece’s creditors that it would miss a May 12th payment to the IMF earlier this month. It made the payment only by emptying an IMF holding account. Rating agencies say they would not put Greece into default if it missed an IMF payment.
But non-payment would be a dangerous move that could see the ECB increase the “haircuts” it applies to Greek bank funding and make its position in the euro zone untenable. A Greek government spokesman said that the country aims to make all payments.
Not looking good unless the Troika makes a deal with Syriza VERY soon.
TakisV > Badger007 • 2 hours ago
Seen in a different way, the IMF & Troika want to ensure Tsipras Gov starts at a ZERO BASELINE of available cash so as to measure future progress of Tax Collections and Privatisation Money, whilst they hold the reigns to blackmail Syriza Gov every time it wants to deviate from Troika objectives. Unfortunately, this is no good for confidence to return, as a Cyprus experience is too near to forget
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aiyannis > Badger007 • 3 hours ago
They have 112 tons of gold. As far as receipts they are looking for the tax receipts that are dues in the next few months. The tax returns have already been delayed and it is thought that the deadline for submitting them will be end of June. The payment of tax will be soon after with a 2% discount if it is paid in one installment.
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TakisV > aiyannis • 2 hours ago
Don't forget Putin, BRICS, Turkish Gas prepayments and imminent privatization of Pireus Port & Airports
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aiyannis > • 2 hours ago
I am amazed by the Syriza propaganda machine that keeps feeding the Greeks pure fantasy. Putin is short of cash, BRICS bank doesn't have any money to lend yet, the privatizations are off particularly that of the airports and the Chinese deal is on the rocks due to being insulted by Syriza. Chinese don't like insults.
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YL > aiyannis • 3 hours ago
That's the scariest part.
All driven by an Ideology.
An ideology which already have proven to have failed in the 20th Century.
Have a look at how long it took Russia to get over its legacy of Communism.
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TakisV > YL • 2 hours ago
You guys are stuck on 'old school scialism', where as YV is a progressive Realist with humanitarian principles
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aiyannis > • 2 hours ago
“No-one would remember the Good Samaritan if he'd only had good intentions; he had money as well.”
Margaret Thatcher
antonia beardsley > aiyannis • 17 minutes ago
Attila the Hen.....yes....I thnk Christ put it rather better,though....don't you?
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stoffel45 > Badger007 • 5 hours ago
Badger, the main threat to the EU is not the Greek debt - the euro on the currency markets lose more than that in a hour's trading.
The real threat is the EU, their ECB, the constant meddling by Berlin showing the World that from the outset not a single one of these "august" bodies has a clue on how to deal with the problem - a huge proportion of which they started themselves.
To suggest that IF Greece exits would make the World lose confidence is a nonsense.
Last week China dumped most of its huge euro holdings, Japan did so two years ago. The Americans are staying very short on euro.
Nobody - except the poor people of the EU vassal states want the damn euro.
If Greece exits (it won't) the cost to Merkel's Government will be a catastrophe because in the immediate wake of Grexit comes Target2 which could well bring down a cheating and lying Government.
Germany goes down - the EU loses - all the way. The EU exists FOR Germany - only.
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Badger007 > stoffel45 • 5 hours ago
I'm under no illusion that the failure of Greece in the EZ (Grexit) is likely to bring down the EZ.
However, it will bring some realities home to roost.
The "dumping" of the Euro by other central banks may well be in response to the natural fall expected as a result of QE and not necessarily a complete lack of confidence.
A failure by Greece would mean around 90bn to Germany but that is economically sustainable if very painful.
The REAL issues are multiple
1) A reduction in confidence in the euro
2) Losses to other countries less able to sustain the losses and potentially requiring more austerity in some contributor nations
3) The loss of credibility when they said no country would ever fall out of the euro.
the euro.
The REAL issue I see on loss of Greece is the eyes will all turn to Italy which has been neatly hiding behind the Greek crisis.
That's where it gets much more interesting.
I agree, the euro works well for Germany, much less "well" pretty much everywhere else to varying degrees.
If economies inside the EZ cannot converge to Germany, its pain all the way.
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jmw123 > Badger007 • 3 hours ago
A lot of good sense there but the real issue is the confidence in the Euro which cannot survive without a single economic policy.
It was probably expected that the crisis within the PIIGS, the first to suffer, would result in their surrendering economic sovereignty.
It didn't.
The real confidence in the Euro comes from the belief that Integration will sooner or later happen.
This dumping of the Euro and the failure to bring about surrender either from the crisis or the austerity measures, is a sign that other economies doubt that integration will be achieved, or achieved in time.
at some point Germany too will recognise this and itself exit to avoid its own economy being devastated in turn.
A Greek exit or capitulation are both acceptable to the EU if the terms are right because they cannot relax austerity measures, indeed, they may want to intensify them if the PIIGS start to get too comfortable within the current conditions and don't now consider Integration as the solution.
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NeverNotHereTV 10h ago
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2015/may/17/-real-question-greece-staying-euro-catastrophe-iceland?CMP=share_btn_link
WHAT’S THE ADVANTAGE OF LEAVING THE EURO ZONE?
NONE as far as I can see.
They have been asking for debt restructuring, but it’s a no-go. So they have to default on the debts, (until further notice).
1. Contrary to many opinions, Argentine improved substantially after their default. Only recently the vulture fund litigation has undone their debt restructuring, and set them back. The one notable difference (should be) that in South America monetary policy has always been weaponised. It is called “disaster capitalism” and has been used for decades to pry open Latin American resources to USA interests.
Even now “vulture funds” are painted as (greedy) private interests. But the region is intentionally being destabilised and the North wants control over Argentina’s vast reserves of Gas Shale.
In the EZ we are supposed to be cooperating, and providing mutual stability. So that kind of direct attack should not occur.
2. If wealth is concentrating, then so is poverty concentrating. That is also a spacial phenomenon, meaning in the marginalised peripheries. Therefore poverty could be addressed through many regional currency schemes alla www.bristolpound.org. These systems can issue credit, and also be transparent through on-line (cellphone) payment systems.
Larger government shortfalls can be addressed with euro denominated tax anticipation notes of a sort, (TAN’s). Even though many taxes are already paid in advance, there is some slack for issuing, (maybe up to 10% of GDP). The only government bonds that would have to be dealt with are those held buy Greek banks. The banks have to be supported or maybe nationalised.
This TAN source can also be used to initiate a Syriza NEW DEAL, or giant public works employment scheme. Both regional complimentary currencies and a Greek New Deal will build solidarity, and strengthen the Syriza lead.
It is hoped that such efforts can make a 5 year recovery out of a projected 25 year recovery.
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TakisV > copper4 • 8 minutes ago
If money the root of all evil, and 99% of world population has little or no money, what is the logical conclusion?
REDESIGN our world monetary system to provide growth and employment in areas that need it most, thus keeping people employed and off the streets or the trenches. GLOBALLY!
THEN: Tensions reduce and restart a new baby-boomer society with much reduced conflict fronts or reasons to revolt or terrorise. If some one owns a home, he wants to protect it and to re-establish 'family structures' as opposed to single parent societies .
It is time for a ZERO TAX SOCIETY / ZERO STATE DEBT SOCIETY blueprint to be initiated. See other recent comments of mine on DT
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11612513/Bundesbank-warn-Greeks-are-on-the-edge-of-default.html
copper4 > • 7 minutes ago
Money is not the root of all evil.
The LOVE of moeny is the root of every evil - big difference.
TakisV • 23 minutes ago
The purpose of QE stimulus is to encourage growth or avoid economic disasters.
HENCE, Logic must prevail that the ECB QE should be used to avoid a GR disaster - pronto
rodent > • 13 minutes ago
Ha! this has become unworkable..It will only create more unfairness and squabbling to come as lander targets are surrendered...Try that relaxed ECB QE idea on Spain, Portugal and others who have followed the years of the austerity can-can. The project is a mistake and the EC Barons will try another stitch up.
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1hhh1 > Freeborn John • 18 minutes ago
No,as others have said the fiscal union will step in to avoid this ever happening again
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Freeborn John > 1hhh1 • 17 minutes ago
Yes like they did in March....until April, and then in April....until May, and now we are in May....more money again in June.
Guess what happens in July.
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Lee1001 > Freeborn John • 15 minutes ago
This,
The European Commission proposes that the following payments be made in June:
· The outstanding tranche of 1.8 billion euros
· The 1.9 billion euros from the SMP program for 2014
· After June, funds from the SMP program for 2015
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RPrior > Jako • 6 hours ago
Specifically for Greece. The Handcuffs come off. Long term opportunities depend on a Greek exit
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11789680/Germans-dont-want-half-finished-Greek-bail-out-deal.html#comment-2181474826
Short term pain for long term gain against permanent enslavement to the EU/EZ.
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Richard Jones > Anglocynic • 4 hours ago
ANGLO
There is a Greek saying, especially in rural districts : Rather an end with pain than pain without end.
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TakisV > Richard Jones • 2 hours ago
You guys unfortunately think one dimensional - you believe that it is the Euro causing the GR problems and Drachma will fix it. Well, you are wrong. If a new broom can sweep clean the corruption and tax evasion, GR has won the BATTLE. If they can also promote confidence to reduce unemployment with investments and Growth, then they have won the WAR. The strategy should be clear to Syriza or the new emerging Gov of National Unity which I believe may be the effective way forward.
Kru Chris > TakisV • 44 minutes ago
There's a little thing called competitiveness. Turkey nearby is way more competitive... A devalued own currency would perhaps help.
TakisV > Kru Chris • 16 minutes ago
Competitiveness is a generalisation thrown around by everyone and his granny! One needs to be specific. Each market segment needs its own competitiveness analysis which may vary on the 'product package' on offer. In shipping, GR has shown resilient competitiveness, same as tourism, where only GR offers Santorini and Mykonos among its brands. GR is not an export or a resources or a manufacturing economy, so care should be exercised when talking competitiveness, which normally implies wage rate destruction (or assimilation of the China + SE Asia models).
A devalued currency which you suggest will only lead to imported price inflation, unaffordability of electronic goods and capital equipment, impoverishment of the individual Greek Citizen (which is already happening thru taxation and a crumbling health and social support system) and further loss of confidence by investors, as they have to factor a drachma return on their investments instead of a world currency.
Richard Jones > TakisV • 2 hours ago
TAKISv
Intrigued how you can extrapolate your theory from my quote of a Greek saying only.
You are quite right that Greece has to reform for any form of 'managed exit' to be a success. I have never said otherwise.
But those reforms cannot be imposed, totally tin-eared by an arrogant troika or similar. I know that with the troika from two personal incidents. There are too many cultural barriers there.
Reforms only work if the reformers can get the buy-in from the reformees and some form of national government may make that possible in a period of some years. On the other hand staying in the €Z means reforms imposed by the €Z and that has failed, so let's try reform from another base.
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TakisV > Richard Jones • 3 minutes ago
I believe that if GR wants to improve thru restructuring, they have to receive the best professional advice possible, even if it is Troika recommendations. The difference between the Varoufakis advice and the Troika advice is the way their ideas are sold or marketed to the Greek people at large. Troika perhaps needed to do a much better job in marketing and selling their ideas why they should be adopted instead of playing headmaster.
Logic and rationality cannot be assumed to be understood by the masses, but a few U-Tube explanatory marketing efforts, say, aimed at the Greeks and the Southern Europeans would go a long way to gain acceptance of sound economic principles if the Troika is the professional experts (Austerity by the way IS NOT SOUND PROFESSIONAL ADVICE and only helps debt collectors. It does not help to grow the tax base of an an economy in crisis that needs URGENT employment and Growth.)
UNLESS OF COURSE THE TROIKA (read EZ) IS NOT INTERESTED IN THE EUROPEAN GOOD and merely represent the interests of the Banksters, who managed to outsmart the whole of the EC electorate when the GR risk was transferred in 2010 MoU
This is good news for the peoples of Europe. At last Excel Spread sheets give way to humanitarian aspects of society as well!
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Freeborn John > • 20 minutes ago
No , it's bad news for the rest of Europe because guess where the money comes from, us.
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Lee1001 > Freeborn John • 13 minutes ago
not one penny has come from the UK
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Freeborn John > Lee1001 • 12 minutes ago
Do you even understand any of this, guess who pays the IMF and the EU.
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Lee1001 > Freeborn John • 3 minutes ago
The confirmation that the European contribution to the second Greek
rescue package will again be limited to eurozone countries - those that
use the single currency - was made in Brussels by European Council
President Herman Van Rompuy.
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Freeborn John > Lee1001 • 2 minutes ago
Thanks, I thought so, you know so little you resort to using Google.
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Lee1001 > Freeborn John • 4 minutes ago
Chancellor George Osborne has refused to contribute to the IMF's bailout fund for the EU, Sky News has learned.
Mr Osborne told his EU colleagues he will not provide any
cash to boost the 200bn euro fund, which is specifically aimed at the troubled eurozone.
The conference call with 26 other EU finance ministers
lasted three hours but ended without Britain's agreement to put in up to 50bn euros.
Mr Osborne insisted that while Britain was ready to take
part in global efforts to bolster the IMF's coffers, it would not
participate in a fund only aimed at the beleaguered eurozone region.
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Freeborn John > Lee1001 • 2 minutes ago
And again, no actual data or thoughts just a copy and paste.
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Lee1001 > Freeborn John • 8 minutes ago
More so than you,no UK money has gone to any Euro bailout,the UK are members of IMF who lends money to the states who need it,still nothing to do with the UK directly.
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Freeborn John > Lee1001 • 7 minutes ago
Directly, how apt that you use a word to hide behind like a coward.
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TakisV > Freeborn John • 18 minutes ago
QE programs - Which is what is supposed to happen (otherwise QE spent on speculation and military objectives
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Freeborn John > • 17 minutes ago
QE means inflation, let me guess by your lack of the basics of economics that you are Greek.
We pay one way or the other, there is no such thing as a free lunch (unless you happen to be Greek of course)
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TakisV > Freeborn John • 11 minutes ago
For your information,
1) if all countries print QE, it negates arbitrage, so US, Japan ,ECB,UK all doing it has no effect on exchange rates.
2) QE drives up prices only if mismanaged, and used exclusively in the Financial Sector for 'Speculation' rather than channelling funds to the real economy to create jobs
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TakisV > Freeborn John • 15 minutes ago
We enjoy our lunches - try it sometime. But we don't sacrifice humanitarian principles, which is what makes the Med more evolved
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Freeborn John > • 13 minutes ago
Pay your taxes and avoid the humanitarian crisis you created.
You did this to yourselves,.
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YL > Freeborn John • 10 minutes ago
Have you ever been successful in convincing freeloaders to stop freeloading?!?
It doesn't work!!!
Only when the funding stop, will they get of their ass and do something about it.
That's human nature unfortunately.
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Why continue to stop providing monetary liquidity to the Greek economy while Greece has shown that it wants to meet its external obligations, with the payment since August 2014 over 17 billion of principal and interest ( about 10% of GDP) without any external funding?
En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2015/05/31/alexis-tsipras-l-europe-est-a-la-croisee-des-chemins_4644263_3234.html#DGzvvHkZBHi2r2AX.99
Why continue to stop providing monetary liquidity to the Greek economy while Greece has shown that it wants to meet its external obligations, with the payment since August 2014 over 17 billion of principal and interest ( about 10% of GDP) without any external funding?
En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2015/05/31/alexis-tsipras-l-europe-est-a-la-croisee-des-chemins_4644263_3234.html#DGzvvHkZBHi2r2AX.99
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11622754/Merkel-doubts-Greek-deal-as-leaders-decide-over-euro-fate.html
TakisV • 4 hours ago
Same as a country declares WAR, a country can declare a DEBT STANDOFF on the basis of the Troika negotiating in BAD FAITH and following a premeditated objective as revealed in Geithner's book (In 2012, Schauble made secret plans to kick GR out of the Euro).
THEN, GR can insist on a Debt Repayment Holiday for a 3-5 year period to fix the 'austerity mess' caused by Troika's unreasonable Debt repayment schedule (Kindergarten kids = Troika Experts filled in the blocks on an excel spreadsheet ) AND THE CONTRACTIONARY DAMAGES TO THE GR ECONOMY.
After 3 - 5 years, Debt Repayments on the (Pooled Total Debt) re-commence on a straight line monthly basis till the end of the Debt repayment period, to all, at current ECB interest rates!
During the DEBT HOLIDAY PERIOD, Tsipras must get the GR economy going and within his budget without further loans to repay Debt Repayments. This is the stick to get GR under fiscal discipline, without focusing on each week's repayments.
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Nick the Greek > TakisV • 4 hours ago
Bravo TakisV - Megale'
Do you really believe that Germany would have a fighting chance without its Debt Right off in 1953?
There would never have been a vote confidence, no foreign investments and debt repayments to this day.
In fact, during my business travels to Berlin many years ago, a German Corporate Executive had confided in me that almost ALL of the residential buildings where the Berliners rented, was exclusively American Investments!
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SteveInVienna • 3 hours ago
Germany realised years ago that the euro would be better off without Greece in it.
Here's what Schäuble told a shocked US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, in 2012."Timothy Geithner reveals Schauble’s plan to kick Greece out of the euro..." www.thepressproject.net/articl... Geithner states that during the meeting Schaeuble presented him with a plan to kick Greece out of the eurozone. This, according to the German Finance Minister, would allow Germany to provide the financial support necessary to the Eurozone as the German people would no longer perceive the assistance as a bailout of the corrupt and profligate Greeks. Furthermore, according to Schaeuble’s logic, a Greek exit would scare the rest of Europe enough for them to commit to providing sufficient financial assistance in order prevent the system from collapsing."
The strategy, which is to give the Greeks enough rope to hang themselves, is working.
TakisV SteveInVienna • 28 minutes ago
This is exactly the proof that the Greeks will use to declare the Troika negotiations IN BAD FAITH. When one party is proven to negotiate in BAD FAITH, and especially as the YV arguments on Austerity Logic are supported by Peer Economist Groups, the aggrieved party may have recourse for damages!
In fact, GR can declare a unilateral standstill on all debt repayments, and claim for damages sustained as a result of the Austerity Policies imposed by the Troika, until a World Court (The Hague) decides on the merits of the case.
Then GR does not default, and status quo remains in the Euro , without ANY Debt Repayments to anyone pending a Hague Ruling.
Well Done Varoufakis.....
Greeks see Euro as a store of asset value. If hidden, it can't be taxed like other assets (eg GR property). Hence GR wants to keep the Euro at any cost to prevent long term erosion of their accumulated wealth. Nothing else.(others that are wealthy may use CH Banks or tax havens instead)
Greek Gov has a different objective: Reduce unemployment and get the economy going again - Hence austerity is the wrong policy. They will therefore try to get reasonable renegotiated terms from the Troika, as it is the Troika policies that damaged the economy by admission of the IMF research team!.
TakisV • 9 minutes ago
1)Tsipras & YV underestimated their enemies - Mistake No 1
2)Syriza should have called referendum in March - Not Mid Tourist Season in July after expiry of the extension, so they had 3 months to force a better deal - Mistake No2
3) Syriza Politicians should read Dale Carnegie ( How to win friends & influence people). They were complete amateurs in negotiating skills - Mistake No 3
4) Syriza had NO COMMUNICATION STRATEGY - Every one in the party said what they thought was flavour of the day, and completely mistimed their messages - Mistake No 4
5) Too many mixed messages by YV & Ts - inspired no confidence inside or outside GR, and can no longer be trusted - Mistake No 5
6) Ts & Co do not think with maturity - Spur of the moment decisions without proper evaluation or Pro / Con Analysis PRIOR to actions (Act Now - Think Later) - Mistake No 6
NEXT STEP: Irrespective of Referendum outcome, Greeks must form a National Crisis Council / National Unity Government for a minimum period of 3 years to NEGOTIATE A NEW DEAL and IMPLEMENT ACTION PLANS to be agreed irrevocably! Only then will CONFIDENCE be restored in the Economy, The Banking System and the Investor Community - BUT INSIDE THE EURO!
Its about time the Greeks heed to some rational non-political advice from the GR Diaspora (like me) and CREATE a FUTURE FOR ALL OF OUR CHILDREN - Otherwise GR dies when the current pensioners expire, without much youth to propel it forward, but a new residence for all the illegal migrants of Europe
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TakisV • 25 minutes ago
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11664698/Merkels-Germany-offers-up-one-reform-deal-to-embattled-Greece.html
10 June 2015
For those DT readers who have followed my comments recently, you will note that all my logical predictions are happening as a rational script:
1) No GR - Troika Deal means lose-lose for all parties / the worst outcome, hence any deal is the right decision (Games Theory)
2) GR more than a financial issue, a Geo-Political concern if no deal signed
3) Obama dictates at G7 that Troika better tow the line and reach a compromise
4) The failure of the Troika Austerity policies and the humanitarian crisis that resulted in GR, could not be ignored by an evolved rational European family - Hence a deal for GR had to be found to show the fairness and support of the EU
5) The Russian threat could not be ignored, and Troika would never push GR away from NATO
6) The Northern countries realise that it is good to have PIGS in the mix to keep the Euro competitive for exports
7) The volatility of movements of international & Athens stock-markets to each GR Deal or no Deal announcement in the press was a clear indication that Grexit could influence world economy disproportionately, and into an 'uncertainty zone' before reaching any equilibrium. The downside risk with Grexit too high to calculate, contemplate or gamble on.
8) a GR deal will bring about closer unity in the EU in the future, and is the only alternative to improve Euro sentiment and avoid a Brexit in the future.
9) An economic upturn and reversal of Capital out- flows from GR banks is certain upon a GR Deal, which will prove beneficial for economic recovery to the whole of Europe and the Southern States.
10) Recruitment of new EC members will be much easier after the GR Deal.
11) What needs to be confirmed over the next few years is that China and Russia will play the SYNCHRONICITY GAME with the Euro, Yen, US $ and Pound Sterling in issuing zero-cost FIAT QE Government financing to all, so that Taxation and Gov Debts will reduce over time towards a ZERO TAX SOCIETY that can provide infrastructure, social needs and disaster finance to our future world.
Thank You - Takis V from Africa
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11771224/Alexis-Tsipras-vows-not-to-be-blackmailed-by-Syriza-rebels-as-threat-of-snap-election-looms.html
The new Deal has a good chance of succeeding based on:
1) The Troika ( now Tetra) will want to prove that their solutions / recommendations work, hence will ensure sufficient ELA support / EFSM monetary cover at all times to reverse prior image and mistrust - Its a matter of pride thru exposure of their shortcomings
2) GR will receive further debt relaxation thru IMF recommendations on Debt Burden allowances
3) The Juncker Package will become a nucleus to start investments and a Growth stimulus
4) Assets in GR are cheap and opportunities to make good returns will be explored and developed by foreign capital funds of a certain risk portfolio profile
5) Tsipras will utilise his 'Technical Skills Decision making process' to evaluate circumstances with an Engineering and Project Management rational style, which based on his popularity and perseverance, will ensure any agreed structural reforms will be enacted successfully.
6) The Greeks are survivors, and will endure further pain as they did over the past 5 years of austerity - instincts will adapt personal strategies for survival, even if thru innovative tax manipulation for cash flow funding
7) There is a huge gap for improvements / opportunities with available capacity ( EG Olympic Games infrastructure for international neutral events and permanent home of Olympic Games
8) Potential windfall of War Reparations from Germany are dormant but alive
9) The GR crisis has exposed the EZ Trade imbalances which may force a new way of treatment of offenders (eg German Surpluses above max targets to be diverted to an EZ Equalisation Fund for investment support of weaker EZ members to regain their economic balance.
10) GR & ESP have shown that >25% unemployments and >50% unemployed Youth is unwanted, unwarranted and unsustainable, hence such EZ Members should be treated as DISASTER ZONES with supportive rather than Austerity Planning to grow their economies at a fast-track pace, not to shrink them. Hopefully GR will be used as the alpha-site for growth experimentation....
Start the discussion…
TakisV • 2 minutes ago
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11828176/EMU-crisis-has-let-evil-genie-of-euro-exit-out-of-the-bottle-says-ECB-policymaker.html
We do not have an agreed global and European strategy or urgency to deal with DISASTERS.
Disasters can be
-Natural (earthquakes, fires, climate change weather related)
-Social ( Disease, Famine, social displacement, mass migrations from war areas, Water & Food shortages, nuclear fallout (Chernobyl, Japan))
or
-Economic ( Greece, Puerto Rico, 1929 Depression, Weimar Hyper-inflation).
There has to be a new way of immediate deployment of international funds and peace keeper forces/ tactical emergency equipment, logistics, medical support and manpower to deal with such crises or austerity alleviation IMMEDIATELY AND WITH SUFFICIENT CRITICAL MASS to eliminate suffering and migration effectively and quickly with minimum of red tape.
Money is the key! Funds should be allocated by QE from each major currency bloc and under control of a GLOBAL DISASTER INTERNATIONAL BODY, not linked to politics or banks!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11831007/The-decades-old-tension-threatening-to-rip-Europe-apart.html#disqus_thread
If a citizen of a nation has attained a good standard of living with some security for his old age and good prospects for his family / progeny, he is not likely to migrate, revolt or resort to crime and destabilising actions. He is likely to set roots and maximise his personal investment (labour and monetary) in his own country. There would be a level of exhuded and contagious happiness. It follows Maslows' hierarchy of needs that if physiological and security needs are not satisfied, a society will become dysfunctional, and the only way to survive is flee or fight (or migrate to the EU) in the hope of better times ahead.
It is my opinion that social turmoil, political instability, religious fundamentalism and internal strife has its roots in unemployment, inability to make a living, maybe drought / famine or under-investment in a society and loss of hope for the future. The root causes of the current mass migration and conflict is therefor rooted in Social and Economic Disaster hotspots, that become exploited by undemocratic regimes with some charismatic opportunistic leaders.
If EU wants a better future, undistorted by mass relocations, then we have to address the root causes at source as a global community. That should be the prime KPI of the UN, the IMF or the World Bank and the G20 / Brics
see more
• TakisV • 2 minutes ago
The WHAT is the primary KPI of any new Government in GR will be to reduce unemployment through economic confidence and growth.
The HOW is to get there is the current MoU in the EZ, otherwise capital controls will never go away, cash stays under the mattress, and fear of Cyprus losses will be a hanging sword over the Gr people
The WHO will get the KPI's in time to avoid further austerity and MU's will be a 'united front' of the true leaders of the GR parliament. We do not know them yet, unfortunately, as everyone is politicking to be elected for personal benefit.
The WHEN is how soon the GR electorate will realise that whatever decisions their elected parliament takes must be respected as a national strategy, without disruptions and backstabbing.
The QUESTION is: Will the elected leadership carry on with political games in parliament, or will they be willing to work hard towards creating a New Greece? Perhaps the leadership will need classes in business management, and treat GR as Enterprise...... Perhaps this is where GR diaspora professionals and international businessmen need to assist (Just like the Jews have done with Israel)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11844657/Alexis-Tsipras-faces-shock-election-defeat-as-voters-on-course-to-punish-Syriza-at-the-ballot-box.html
tomaso • 17 minutes ago
Instead of their cronies, whoever runs the next government should invite technocrat specialists to help the country out of its dire straits. They would instill much greater confidence in creditors than the rank amateurs that Syriza has promoted into senior positions. All Greek politicians seem to favour their own hand-picked candidates for top jobs and if continued will keep the country in the doldrums for the foreseeable future.
TakisV tomaso • 10 minutes ago
Get German tax collectors and British financiers as well...
greek_citizen • 3 minutes ago
Herr Schauble offered 300 German tax collectors few years ago but are still waiting to be used .
godfather • 6 minutes ago
you both have very good points. It might work.
greek_citizen • 17 minutes ago
The difference is that the Jews in Israel work their butt off for themselves and their country as well and they are aware that if Israel sinks they will all sink and they don't apply the "every man for himself and his pocket" as we do .The modern Greek is exactly what in ancient Greece called an Ιδιωτης , and it's meaning unlike in modern Greek was the selfish one , the one that dosn't care or participates in the communal matters , hence in english is called an "idiot" ,the word is Greek and it fit us to a T .
TakisV greek_citizen • 12 minutes ago
The Greeks in diaspora (who were legal migrants or asylum seekers at some stage of their journey) are very very hard workers they either found employment, or created employment for themselves to support their families and create a new life - No reason why the Greeks in Greece should be different, (unless they spend too much time in the sun that cooks their brains?)
greek_citizen • 5 minutes ago
The generation of the Greeks in Diaspora you refer to is now very old or dead , their children don't have the same bond with Greece or are way too aware of what a corrupt country she is .There is no more money or help coming from this generation any more .The rest of us , the ones that left the last few years ( i left 9 years ago , the good years but hell i could see what was going on and what was coming )we are not coming back any time soon .
godfather • 3 hours ago
The people voted for one thing and got the opposite. Does he want a prize, like a booby prize maybe. The cost to Europe of his theatre is multiples of the Greek debt. Better he had come out of the Euro. Staying in does not solve the problem. You taken on more debt to pay the old debt. So 2 to 3 years down the road it starts all over again.
TakisV godfather • 3 hours ago
Wrong! Before 2008, GR was THE developing country of the EU, with good growth rates, but bad internal controls. Then 2008 crisis was the Tsunami the took the GR boat out to sea...
tomaso • 3 hours ago
I believe the Greek boat was well at sea since joinining the Euro. The 2008 crisis just cleared away the camouflage. There was no hiding place from then on. Greece would not have survived without massive aid from the EU.
TakisV tomaso • 3 hours ago
Greece was just taking advantage of easy money to grow. Had positive growth rates (in the Euro!). However, it was growing too fast without controls and inadequate real investment in creating employment for the longer term. Then 2008 swept the carpet under their feet, money costs started rising exponentially and growth came to standstill - leading to the Austerity Bailouts which reduced confidence & investments as well as ballooning unemployment...which GR is currently still experiencing unabated
tomaso • 2 hours ago
Positive growth rates should have been taken with a large pinch of salt. Greek statistics have, frankly, a very bad reputation for reasonable accuracy. Hopefully, they are now improving. The Greek economy went into a tail-spin when it was found that their data was just a mirage, which led to the first, 2010, bailout.
Sheik Rhat el Anrhol • 3 hours ago
The fact that olive products and Feta are the only things worth buying from Greece, and arguable other countries do them better is the bottom line and that cannot be dodged for very long.
TakisV Sheik Rhat el Anrhol • 3 hours ago
The main export product is TOURISM and related activities - 25% of GDP! GR is not an exports dependant economy, unlike China and Germany / N Europeans
Sheik Rhat el Anrhol • 3 hours ago
But that does not improve the situation, it just makes it worse.
Having to depend to such an enormous extent on an industry which is arguably not very good and surrounded by countries who do it better, seems nuts to me, but Greece is in a state of mid- collapse.
I wonder why that would be?
TakisV Sheik Rhat el Anrhol • a few seconds ago
'Not very good?' please define
'countries do it better" - not according to latest satisfaction surveys n Greek Tourism.
Please, less sentimentalism and more facts on DT
Andy > TakisV • 6 hours ago
Waste of time unless and until the Greek Tax Code is radically reformed. Personally I would favour scrapping the whole thing and introduce a simple and straight forward Flat Tax.
Richard Jones > Andy • 2 hours ago
ANDY
The whole tax process has been radically reformed. PAYE percentages are now about the same as UK and higher than Germany and France.
The real problem is the massive increase in tax burden of 241% for the average family in 4 years coupled with an average income decrease (unemployment) of about 30%, oh and tax at 10% from the first € earned.
Andy > Richard Jones • an hour ago
I am aware of the Greek tax system, having had a brush with it. I still think it needs (like the system in the UK actually) radical reform and simplification. I strongly disapprove of the 'assumed income' nonsense which is nothing but the State stealing private property and is oppressive.
I'm also aware that the burden has increased bring it more in line with other European countries. There is a great deal of moaning about the property tax, but as I have pointed out here in my district the lowest property tax payable is £900 per annum.
Richard Jones > Andy • an hour ago
ANDY
The tax increases in Greece are punitive because of what they do to family budgets. The first impact was to blow NPL's way over 40%.
I've brushed with Greek tax in major fashion since 2005 (and on occassion since 1949) and the argument about bringing Greek tax to comparative €Z levels doesn't work because salaries are not comparable.
On the property tax, the anti was cultural and the stupidity (illegal as judged by the ECJ) of linking it, to ensure payment, to the electricity bill (the electric company also had the best address list in the country), was very unhelpful.
It is however, once the value errors are corrected, by far the fairest asset-based tax around and everybody else has one.
Richard Jones Darwin 2 hours ago
DARWIN
To reply on the 'why' will take some pages. I think you are in Northern Territory thus early evening. Here is my e-mail (dangerous I know) richard.jones.m@gmail.com.
If interested mail me and we can deal with it one on one.
I will delete this mail in 12 hours time.
Assume DSQUS will forward this to you.
Richard Jones Darwin 21 hours ago
DARWIN
Thanks for the compliment. I have, under various umbrellas, been with the EU thought and process since 1949 in Sèvres and some would say since the day in September 1944 when with shell-crump still in earshot and vision Benelux was formed.
Now pro or con. I am certainly of the belief that a united Europe (to quote 1066 and all that) would be a good thing, but I believe much more in the initial model. I digress, but it was not an accident that Churchill's 1946 Europe speech
TakisV Richard Jones • a minute ago
Richard,
I am very impressed with your European Econo-Political knowledge since your early consulting days in 1949 and your interesting comments on DT. I am also a Management & Engineering Consultant, now pushing 61 working in Africa for 35+ years, but born in Athens, hence wish for a better future for my country, based on rational thinking and success rather than politics.
If tomorrow you were asked to become an honorary 'Presidential Consultant' to Greece to get the country on a High Road, what would be the top 5 or 10 points that you would drive home to a newly elected parliament?
Would you have a blog where you expose your philosophies and opinions?
(I have a BlogSpot on global poverty elimination and disaster management - on my avatar profile with Disqus)
greek_citizen TakisV • 8 hours ago
The difference is that the Jews in Israel work their butt off for themselves and their country as well and they are aware that if Israel sinks they will all sink and they don't apply the "every man for himself and his pocket" as we do .The modern Greek is exactly what in ancient Greece called an Ιδιωτης , and it's meaning unlike in modern Greek was the selfish one , the one that dosn't care or participates in the communal matters , hence in english is called an "idiot" ,the word is Greek and it fit us to a T .
Richard Jones greek_citizen • 4 hours ago
GREEK_CITIZEN
This is a very valid comment. Greece is in many ways more a language, culture, theology, extended family construct than a nation.
It has historically always been this way, as can be seen from the Athens to Sparta counterpoint and the constant Korinthos to Thebes bickering.
Just as there was a chronic inability in ancient times to think outside the 'polis' so today there is an inability to think outside of the extended family.
The extended family focus was underlined by Turkish occupation which was in many areas more compromising and less authoritarian than popularised, except on the issue of the Turkish war machine and especially the confiscation (often to a better life) of many Greek children for the Jannisary. Extended families - how many SME's do we know that are utterly handicapped by being family run when the replacing of one weak link by an outsider would make things blossom?
Extended families are a major prop to the clientelist system pefected by Andreas Papandreou whose dynastic hold on government (3 PM's in the family) is a sad symptom of the malaise.
My family can have a guaranteed job for life with a good salary, a good pension and good social benefits if I put these people in power. Can the state afford these things? Where will the money come from for the state to pay people this way? Is this the best way to run the state for the sustainable good ofits people? These questions are never asked - ex-familia y'know.
There are many other profound issues, notably the disdain of detail and precision that lives in the Greek mind of those with primary and secondary education and thus pervades the public sector and the trades. It exists in the minds of the tertiary educated (often from a uni. outside Greece) but the class divides are so large that the thought of educating downwards within Greece does not even make the starting line.
There is no quick cure to Greece's problems and every time there appears some vestige of a generation attempting even mild reform, a crisis ensues, they join the diaspora and Greece judders on as before. This crisis may be the worst however, as hysteresis on a massive scale may well result from a totally unworkable bail-out.
The only faint hope is that Greece has one vague national hook and that is a UK-like tendency to 'bludge' along until clearly survival is threatened and then they turn viciously and relentlessly, as they did in October 1940 and again in April 1941.
antoncheckout • 21 hours ago
The Greek government has allowed until October for the issuers of bad cheques to cover them with cash, before being declared insolvent (entering the 'Tiresias' register). The rationale for this was that with capital controls restricting the banks, many businesses had poor access to funds and counterparty liquidity was seizing up. So it made a sort of sense to give them more time to pay up.
But there are recent reports that many are taking advantage of this relaxation of the Tiresias insolvency rule to issue more bad cheques, and to ignore requests for payment. So the whole company liquidity situation is getting worse by the day
Of course, capital controls are unlikely to be abolished by October anyway. .
And as Tiresias cannot intervene before then, who is to tell - until the final date for settlement in October - whether a debt is being strategically dragged out, or if a bankruptcy is being fraudulently concealed.
It's another power-keg.
TakisV comment:
A key role of Government is to ensure an economy with acceptable unemployment levels (below 8%) as well as provision of essential needs & working infrastructure to its population. Therefore:
1) When times are bad, QE is an acceptable mechanism to promote growth and employment by spending or supporting REAL ECONOMIC PROJECTS such as infrastructural upgrades, NHS, Education and tax breaks for investors (not money supply to overheat shares and property values or speculative activities.
2) Austerity as a tool does not mean tax increases of business and labour, but rather a belt tightening of Gov operational expenses in non-essential cost centres, such as defense expenditure and 'iffy' ministries
3) Govs must maintain and assure confidence in the economy, without risking taxpayers to bail out banksters when their gambles in leveraged 'investing' goes belly up
4) Govs need to consider the less fortunate and provide a cushion to eliminate homelessness & desperation, which leads to crime, suicides, drugs, alcohol and loss of dignity
I believe these are the principles that YV wants to promote towards a more just society of a future Europe
Will Richardson > TakisV • an hour ago
I think 8% unemployment , which really means 16%, is a socio-economicidal target, 5% is bad enough, 3% was achieved in the post-war world and with a Job Education Training Income Guaranteed Living Wage at Stable Prices approach, 2% is achievable.
The government stimulus equals private surplus, pound/euro/dollar for pound/euro/dollar. Austerity is a kind of financial anti-private neo-Stalinism as it suppresses private saving out of income in the economy.
TakisV > Will Richardson • 9 minutes ago
Philips Curve theory (now obsolete?) used to show the 8% mark as the high mark of unemployment.
Consider GR unemployment at 26% for 5 years (and 60% youth unemployed)- The rest of EU can't comprehend this catastrophy of a country. Hence unless a Gov can bring about the confidence for growth to resume, unemployment will not be expunged and hence the Gov deemed to have failed!
Austerity is misunderstood - Austerity means focus & bring your public running expenses and tax collection under control, NOT kill the economy by over-taxation and bank runs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11889958/Yanis-Varoufakis-Britain-has-had-no-austerity-only-class-war-question-time.html
upton > alexw • 10 hours ago
All Varoufakis achieved for Greece was further recession, €40bn of capital flight and closed banks.
But then he only managed to get into the University of Essex.
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TakisV > upton • a few seconds ago
The recipe of capital flight was created by the ECB policies on Cyprus. Further, the negotiation in bad faith by the Troika achieved its objective to play for time, close the GR banks and finally impose their MoU No 3 without defining debt relief as per IMF directives. Saga to carry on...
TakisV • a minute ago
Poverty is the manifestation of NO INCOME either due to UNEMPLOYMENT or else due to FAILURE OF GOVERNMENTS & UN to address DISASTER before it becomes endemic (SOCIAL, COLONIAL, NATURAL or ECONOMIC Disasters come to mind).
A bottom-less Global QE Fund of Zero Interest, non repayable MONEY FOR PROJECTS needs to be agreed by the Global Players for immediate deployment to all affected areas of our world to address projects of infrastructure, repair, Hospitals, Water & Sewerage, Education, Roads & Logistics, etc. This will stimulate not only the receptors of such AREAS FOR POVERTY ALLEVIATION, but will provide an immediate global boost to employment levels AND BADLY NEEDED GROWTH TO STABILISE THE WORLD towards a more secure and less speculative, less boom-bust economics that have prevailed since the Industrial Revolution, with the result being WARS and CONFLICT or CRIME.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11916485/3-trillion-corporate-credit-crunch-looms-as-debtors-face-day-of-reckoning.html
• TakisV • 2 minutes ago
The cancers of modern global society can be traced to:
1 - Unemployment / Under-earning of the masses
2 - Legitimate Tax havens that keep corporate and private capital away from investments that could create employment
3 - Encouragement of 'Financial Gambling' by institutions with cheap 'Other People's Money' on speculative financial products and non-real investments for the benefit of the few
The solution: Eliminate points 2 & 3 and invest in point 1. Channel resources towards improving world's living conditions & infrastructure everywhere. This will cause a 'Global Spring' in creating employment, which will keep the masses off the streets and out of conflicts and crime, with a dignified life worth living for and protecting. If necessary, let the World Bank and the IMF create its own QE Money to spend on infrastructural projects in underdeveloped or socially affected countries to create employment where it's needed, HENCE also eliminate the Migrant Problems and keep cultural fabrics together in their own homelands.
The result: More money available to a broader global society to spend on goods and services, which will promote international economic growth, affluence and stability.....''Greetings from the unspoilt Mopaniveld of S. Africa"
MetaHead TakisV • 19 hours ago
Same old African crap. Want somebody else to sort your sh*t out because you're too dumb to do it yourself? What a surprise. Cultural fabrics? Homelands? What are you? A nazi? "Greetings from Europe"
TakisV MetaHead • an hour ago
I gave you the answers to the world problems. You can pretend in your glass castle as much as you want.
You obviously have never been or seen TV footages from Latin Americas, Africas , Mid East or Asia sub-continent and have become oblivious to the desperation caused by unemployment and social disasters in these areas, without proper roads or transport to markets, no clean water or schools or hospitals, no access to capitals, no electricity hence no investments and often caused by the lack of interest of the colonial powers and 'non-real' inadequate investment of capital. These people are motivated by desperation and hope that the next dictator will do something better for them.
My assessment is as truthful and correct as you can get. Like it or not
Robert Paulson • an hour ago
The world never recovered from the 2008 crisis. Instead, the banksters and their political prostitutes deferred the financial reckoning day by printing countless trillions in fiat currency and papering over the Swiss-cheese holes in the dike. Now the debt-fueled "growth" and money-printing the lunatic Keynesians have promoted is going to make the renewed crisis cataclysmic instead of merely severe like it would have been had the toxic waste been swept out of the system back in 2008 and reckless, irresponsible banks been allowed to go bankrupt.
TakisV > Robert Paulson • an hour ago
The problem is the QE is not going into Keynsian employment creation projects. hence the bubbles we see coming to the surface - how much longer will speculative activity rule the world? or the Legitimised Tax havens that prevent capital deployment in real investments?
Ross Gordon > TakisV • an hour ago
Your analysis of 'business' or life in africa is valid and true. However only with the very best and smartest investments can this be turned around in less than 100 years, (5 generations). This does not provide any short term solution to the short term forecast of world financial collapse, and note the statement 'very best and smartest'. Chinese GDP growth has always been suspect, as is India's but both for different reasons. Pollution was always going to block Chinese, they have now reached the tipping point where increased GDP results in triple pollution costs, that is the cost of increase GDP is outweighed by the cost of pollution.
The final scenario that is painted is not valid as the 'world' cannot afford a financial collapse, and the world knows it, those in power, (that is those who have the best economies or the least risk economies) will have the greatest leverage in dictating the terms of the new economic realities. No country is isolated from the world or the world economy.
IMPORTANT DEDUCTIONS FOR THE FUTURE
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11923522/Beware-a-third-storm-brewing-for-the-global-economy-IMF-warns.html#comment-2301630310
TakisV > Ross Gordon • 3 minutes ago
IF I was IMF or World Bank, I would consider a policy of kick-starting world economy through infrastructure upgrades around the world, based on QE money that carry zero interest and zero debt to the recipient countries! NOT GRANTS OR AID! Only projects finance based on 1st world project management & design practices. Dams, Hospitals, roads, water & sewerage, schooling projects, climate change projects (reforestation), agricultural equipment, etc should be fast-tracked on joint first world - desperate world basis with local employment & labour training in basic skills an urgent issue.
Too much talking & too little action is what we do well. Let's reverse that by maybe giving engineers the challenge to start the New Global Spring, not politicians. Maybe control who sells the weapons to whom, rather than worrying about fighting marijuana growers! That's how one avoids crises, by focusing on the things that matter to create employment where its needed and educate and stabilise those communities in social chaos.
• TakisV • 3 minutes ago
Perhaps this shows the future. Now that the worlds 5 currencies are legitimised (bar the Ruble to date), the time has come to peg each of the 5 currencies against each other and thus eliminate currency speculators. This will divert investment from all the speculative trillions to real employment creating equity instead, thus promoting global growth once again.
Further, by IMF or World Bank Decree perhaps, each of the Big Five can be requested to 'create' a fixed proportion of their FIAT economy as contribution to a 'Save The Planet' reserve that can be used to finance 'free of interest and repayment' projects to fight disasters (There are Natural, Social & Economic disasters in need of urgent support, not Loans, eg to build infrastructure, hospitals, schools and homes in impoverished regions of the world, or to support humanitarian catastrophes, (eg Syria, Sudan, etc
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12023599/IMF-to-make-Chinese-yuan-reserve-currency-in-historic-move.html
THE RATIONAL ALTERNATIVE FOR THE MOTOR CAR OF THE FUTURE SOCIETY
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12065274/OPEC-faces-a-mortal-threat-from-electric-cars.html
Dec 2015
• TakisV • a few seconds ago
As population explodes towards a 'Limit of Growth' asymptote, some structural changes in society values, expectations and legal decrees have to be expected. This would change the transport landscape towards efficient but flexible mass transportation owned by societies, not individuals. Imagine a SUPER-UBER transport system of buses, mini-buses or transit vehicles purpose designed on statistical data for peak demand periods to suit the clientele... Then an individual would not require to own such vehicle, reducing future demand for 'private cars' to a collector or purpose 'tool' ownership (eg a mini-truck for a small holding).
That's when electric driverless vehicles will be a norm - but as regards the time frame, there has to be a strategy starting yesterday....
RESPONSES TO THE 'MOTOR CAR OF THE FUTURE'(Ref: Daily Telegraph)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12065274/OPEC-faces-a-mortal-threat-from-electric-cars.html
Dec 2015
TakisV • a few seconds ago
As population explodes towards a 'Limit of Growth' asymptote, some structural changes in society values, expectations and legal decrees have to be expected. This would change the transport landscape towards efficient but flexible mass transportation owned by societies, not individuals. Imagine a SUPER-UBER transport system of buses, mini-buses or transit vehicles purpose designed on statistical data for peak demand periods to suit the clientele... Then an individual would not require to own such vehicle, reducing future demand for 'private cars' to a collector or purpose 'tool' ownership (eg a mini-truck for a small holding).
That's when electric driverless vehicles will be a norm - but as regards the time frame, there has to be a strategy starting yesterday....
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Bob_Wallace > TakisV • 9 days ago
Imagine shared ride self-driving cars and mini-buses. Just input your destination and when you want to leave. A central route planner would have a vehicle stop for you.
Spontaneous carpools.
Lord Wheats > Bob_Wallace • 9 days ago
I thought a spontaneous car pool was called a bus. They can be solar powered too. Just stick the panels on the roof and recharge at bus stops.
Bob_Wallace > Lord Wheats • 9 days ago
In some countries there are minivans/buses that cruise the downtown bus stops and pick up people going to a particular neighborhood. Within that neighborhood they will drop you off at your door (within reason). And they'll pick up more people on the way if someone waves them down. Grab a new load and head back to town.
I'm envisioning the same sort of 'car pool'. You could have a standing order for a ride to work every morning with an assured delivery by 7:55, for example. The system would route a multi-passenger vehicle along the most efficient route to pick up as many people as possible, thus keeping costs low.
Buses are too large to do neighborhood work.
DWilson > Bob_Wallace • 9 days ago
On my way to work, I turn on my Uber app with my PHEV. That cuts even more emissions and earns cash too. If anything the govt should subsidize drivers who take other riders (as part of their regular driving) and tax individual drivers of gasoline/diesel powered cars.
TedKidd > DWilson • 8 days ago
Car pool lanes. Park and ride lots. Small, but something.
• TakisV • 11 minutes ago
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12107152/IMF-economic-outlook-downgrade-china-markets-crash-oil-prices.html
The IMF and the world financial system are trying conventional tools and techniques to maintain order of the status quo, when the real problems causing current monetary instability are overpopulation of regions beyond economic viability, leading to social disasters (regional conflicts), unemployment, economic and religious migration.
TAXATION of low growth economies limits opportunities for private expenditures and investments, whilst Tax Havens and unregulated financial speculation drives asset value bubbles and limits employment creation opportunities.
The solution is to undertake a GLOBAL GROWTH STIMULUS through Infrastructural Rebuilding of disaster struck economic regions but NOT BASED ON DEBT. This will create employment and re-growth based on non re-payable 'FIAT CREDIT' creation by a body such as the World Bank, through the issue of proportional Fiat Funding by the Top 5 Economic Powers based on their current money supply in circulation. (ie US Dollar, Yen, Euro, Sterling & Yuan monetary Central Banks, as they represent the world's global wealth.) Effectively, this will create some re-distribution of monetary wealth without inflationary pressure, as all funding thus created will be for employment creating projects around the globe.
It will be a WIN-WIN situation for Capital and Labour that will lead to real employment creation and restart economic growth and confidence.
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o RPrior TakisV • 10 hours ago
Disagree. Fair trade not Free Trade and focus on the creation of large scale Regional Trading Platforms.
The objective is to create a Level Playing Field in terms of Cost bases that serves to provide Economic stability. The foolish attempt to create a Global Trading Platform before the creation of a level playing field has eroded the world's economies.
It is crucial to maintain Regional firewalls so that a collapse in one region does not create a global domino effect.
Finally, the world must rid itself of left wing politicians controlling our economic decisions. Economic decisions need to be made by Regional teams of Financial experts who are committed to objective decisions.
TakisV RPrior • a minute ago
You are addressing only a small part of the problems with Fair Trade.
How can you have fair trade, when a country such as DRC which is the size of half of Europe, only has about 3000 km of tarred roads??? There is no infrastructure to markets, no infrastructure to educate, or create viable production facilities or raw material processing in situ that would create employment and multiplier economic growth, where there is no housing, sanitation, hospitals schools, energy or communication lines????
If my model of FIAT FREE CREDIT for infrastructure development on a global scale can be adopted, then a transformed world economy would make it possible for fair or free trade and elimination of squalor and despair ++> hence less migratory or social discontent...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12108569/World-faces-wave-of-epic-debt-defaults-fears-central-bank-veteran.html
TakisV wrote:
Time has come for a new economic system, based on Disaster Management fundamentals of National Debt Write offs and FIAT credit creation for all national infrastructural projects. Governments have to tax less so the private sector recovers, and print more for national budget balancing, with access to Global Fiat Credit from the World Bank which is non repayable.
Note: When a national infrastructural project gets built, it creates employment, improves quality of life, prevents future disasters AND Converts monetary value into a Fixed National Asset (Think of money spent on a Dam.. monetary value that is sourced from a Government gets converted into a Fixed Asset to provide water and hydro power to the society.....why should a government have to find more money to pay back debt and interest? By decree, national infrastructural needs must be identified and FIAT Credit be used to pay the suppliers of projects which can be counterbalanced on the basis of a non-depreciating Asset Value that remains behind after the project has been completed)
20 Jan 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/davos/12114859/Mario-Draghi-denies-that-ECB-bazooka-is-empty.html
TakisV • 3 minutes ago 21 Jan 2016
"Wolfgang Schauble, Germany's finance minister, called for a multi-billion euro "Marshall Plan" to blanket the North Africa and most vulnerable areas of the Middle East with investment".......
Eventually the penny has dropped. Treat disaster areas with FIAT support on infrastructure projects to create employment, reverse migration and start developing a spread of economic areas globally, not just N Africa & ME. Not by repayable Debt!
This should become the future policy of the World Bank and IMF.
Eventually, all taxation should be replaced by controlled monetary Fiat Money so that fair and free trade becomes possible. NO TAX SOCIETY should be the ultimate objective for an improved standard of living for all.
• Skalla • 33 minutes ago
Fed up that Schauble decides what can be done with European money. He is quite welcome to do what he wants with German money, but he should stop talking as if he controlled the UK, France, Italy, etc. resources as belonging to Germany to do what he wants to with them... STOP GERMAN IMPERIALISM AND HEGEMONISM !!!
TakisV Skalla • 3 minutes ago
WHAT YOU SEE HAPPENING is a new way forward, where no money is your money. All large currency groups will be creating FIAT 'Credit' at no cost and non-repayable basis. You don't really believe the US is ever going to repay $17Trillion of debt ever? or Japan? or ECB? or BOE ? or Chinese Yuan?
These countries/Central Banks have started printing money on a never-repayable basis, which will be their way of financing their budgets, their war efforts and their security R&D which holds employment in check. It is just a matter of time before this type of policy of redistribution of wealth becomes apparent to the smaller nations, and they start demanding that they get treated the same, and all National Debts are wiped off the slate. The suppliers of debt (banks & institutions) will not lose out, as Fiat Credit will be used to ensure stability. Just my thoughts
WHAT YOU SEE HAPPENING is a new way forward, where no money is your money. All large currency groups will be creating FIAT 'Credit' at no cost and non-repayable basis. You don't really believe the US is ever going to repay $17Trillion of debt ever? or Japan? or ECB? or BOE ? or Chinese Yuan?
These countries/Central Banks have started printing money on a never-repayable basis, which will be their way of financing their budgets, their war efforts and their security R&D which holds employment in check. It is just a matter of time before this type of policy of redistribution of wealth becomes apparent to the smaller nations, and they start demanding that they get treated the same, and all National Debts are wiped off the slate. The suppliers of debt (banks & institutions) will not lose out, as Fiat Credit will be used to ensure stability. Just my thoughts
• Afonso • 8 minutes ago
There are already signs of a tectonic shift.Wolfgang Schauble, Germany's finance minister, called for a multi-billion euro "Marshall Plan" to blanket the North Africa and most vulnerable areas of the Middle East with investment.
Sounds good. Now we only need a tectonic shift to move countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal...a bit souther so they can benefit from Wolfgang's fraternité.
TakisV Afonso • 6 minutes ago
I believe you are correct, and this is just pre-conditioning to a new re-distribution of wealth model, but with wealth that is really just 'printed credit' and nothing else.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12123462/EU-botched-billion-euro-bail-outs-during-financial-crisis-says-spending-watchdog.html
• TakisV • 12 minutes ago
Coming from a LEAN THINKING background and the need for creative solutions of Root Causes of Problems to be openly discussed and rationally evaluated, it appears to me the Europeans are half a century behind in their approach of the bailout crisis, the migrant problem, and the Greek volcano which is rumbling to explode.
The EU and EC Leaders need to task this Auditor's report not just to conclude the obvious, but to analyse the alternative options at each Event Milestone and propose a way out in a realistic, and probably unconventional solution.
For example,
if the realistic solution to the problem is for the ECB to just print NON REPAYABLE, NON-DEBT INCURRING, NON-INTEREST 'Fiat Credit' to release pressure by write -off of 50% of PIGS Debt, and effectively getting the people to return to the Banks, it will get the number one KPI started, which is return of confidence, re-investment and reduction in youth unemployment - As per Dr Scheaubles 'North African & ME Marshall plan proposal at Davos. Some interests will not like such solution at it slightly dilutes the perceived value of the Euro by causing some re-distribution of wealth from North to South, but on the other hand, provided such Fiat Credit is channelled via Public Works Projects and Infrastructure, it will be the quickest way for the Euro to regain its real value against the US Dollar, and hence create an upward re-valuation of wealth for the Euro rich again to balance out any prior devaluations. QED
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Richard Jones • a day ago
A thought crosed my mind concerning Merkel.
The UN gets a new Sec-Gen this year and I think it is about Europe's turn.
Now the European choice is hampered in that no permaent member of the Security councilcan be appointed. So USA,China, Russia, UK, France are debarred (laggard thwarted?) However Germany can put up a cadindate andprobably for the last tme as tere is talk of an EU member or Germany taking the 6th seat.
Merkel's next general election- Bundestag - is Oktober 2017 latest but I do not think she will stand as the migrant mess infiltrates German thought and shows signs of breaking up the CDU/CSU combine (Listen to Seehofer and Dobrindt). So she is out of a job on a 'humanitarian issue' that is anyway going global as even Coiffeur Trump has realised.
Merkel was also born post-WW2 so there is no risk of any Waldheim revelations.
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lucysdad01 Richard Jones • a day ago
There is only one candidate for the job, Mr Anthony Linton Blair MP pc, bringer of peace to the Middle East.
Richard Jones lucysdad01 • a day ago
LUCY
I had forgotten about him until I saw the thread about Tony and the EU, wherein I voiced that possibility.
But now I remember it is not possible this time round because Permanent Members of the Security Council cannot be considered. Thus the UN Sec-Gen currently cannot come fromUSA, China, Russia, France or UK.
This could change as a seat for Germany was mooted several years ago and more recently replacing the French and UK seats with an EU seat (now maybe Tony can slitherin there)
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TakisV Richard Jones • an hour ago
Can we get Varoufakis (GR) to apply? At least he will raise the TV coverage and excitement levels, and may be will see some real changes being effected (Half-serious, but really good popular choice)
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Richard Jones • an hour ago
TAKISV
Much more interesting if Varo went as a candidate to oust the leader of the Druncker gang in 2019, of course Tsipras was one of 5 candidates(Druncker, Verhofstadt, Schickelschulz, Ska Kellar andTsipras) last time which might not help Varo too much.
Varo at the UN Security Council game theory, might be 'different'.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/12126279/Is-Greece-about-to-be-martyred-again-by-the-EU.html
meanwhile • 5 hours ago
German Dentists Warn Treating Migrant’s ‘Catastrophic’ Teeth Alone Will Cost Tax Payer BILLIONS - http://www.breitbart.com/londo...
That mass migration is adding enormous pressure to public services has been confirmed by German dental professionals, who have warned the teeth of many immigrants are so bad they require significant work, which will cost the tax payer billions of Euros.
Describing the teeth of migrants who are coming to German dentists for work as “catastrophic” and often requiring total replacement, Baden-Württemberg dentists’ association chief Knuth Wolf said: “For the majority of refugees there is a need for a comprehensive dental treatment, or even dentures. There are corresponding costs with this”.
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TakisV meanwhile • a few seconds ago
This means someone has to make the dentures, will employ people and economy grows by the multiplier effect...
This shows that migrants can stimulate an economy as there is need for food, provisions, housing , furniture, clothing, motor cars / transport, etc.
Effectively, the State will stimulate the German Economy and create jobs. Hence Merkel not so stupid, hey?
TakisV • 4 minutes ago
If migrants need a dentist in Germany, someone has to make the dentures, who will employ people and economy grows by the multiplier effect...
This shows that migrants can stimulate an economy as there is need for food, provisions, housing , furniture, clothing, motor cars / transport, etc.
Effectively, the State will stimulate the German Economy and create jobs. Hence Merkel not so stupid, hey?
Maybe the EC must provide GR with free billions to do the same with refugee support and grow its economy
TakisV • 26 minutes ago
Root cause of refugee crisis not being addressed - War torn Arab Spring catastrophes along political interest lines of the super-powers and the arms manufacturers....
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Rob Charlton • 17 minutes ago
What do you propose as a solution?
TakisV Rob Charlton • 14 minutes ago
Start by negotiating and facilitating solutions in good faith, with Global Fiat Funds from IMF or World Bank to get confidence back and the economies rebuilt! Why is Syria negotiations ,so difficult?' Why is US dragging their heels?
Rob Charlton • 11 minutes ago
Gibberish.
TakisV Rob Charlton • 10 minutes ago
Not a solution, unfortunately
Rob Charlton • 9 minutes ago
At least you admit that your suggestion is pie-in-the sky lefty nonsense.
TakisV Rob Charlton • 7 minutes ago
Schauble proposed a Marshall Type Plan for N Africa & ME at Davos. Is he a lefty? he just sees a way forward using infrastructural re build to normalise affected societies
TakisV • 13 hours ago
If migrants need a dentist in Germany, someone has to make the dentures, who will employ people and economy grows by the multiplier effect...
This shows that migrants can stimulate an economy as there is need for food, provisions, housing , furniture, clothing, motor cars / transport, etc.
Effectively, the State will stimulate the German Economy and create jobs. Hence Merkel not so stupid, hey?
Maybe the EC must provide GR with free billions to do the same with refugee support and grow its economy....
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Moctavia TakisV • 11 hours ago
Will the dentist pay as much in taxes on these dentures as he charges the German taxpayer?
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TakisV Moctavia • a few seconds ago
The dentist adds value to the economy by using consumables, employing support staff, ordering x-rays or dentures, etc. In such example, before the client (migrant) received dental services, there was no economic change. The added value starts the economic multiplier effect that creates growth and movement of the economy.
This is irrespective whether the dentist or his suppliers pay any taxes. The German taxpayer benefits through the new money in circulation, that creates a demand for labour and hence opportunity for additional employment. This example is more important for economies in crisis, such as GR, Spain, etc.
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6 a.m., Friday Jan. 29 | Other comments by Moctavia
Moctavia TakisV • 3 hours ago
This may apply once the migrants have jobs and earn their living. As long as the German government has to fund the housing, clothing, food and medical care for these people they are a burden to the taxpayers.The German government is trying to come up with some additional tax to fund this enormous expense (they haven't found the correct name for it yet to make the tax palatable to the Germans).
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TakisV Moctavia • 3 minutes ago
What you identified is the need to solve a European Problem with EU / Global funding that is unfair to burden individual country taxpayers.
So what the ECB has to do is CREATE A MARSHALL PLAN FUND for all affected disaster areas. This can be on the basis of FIAT money printing that never needs to get repaid ( Per US Fed 17 Trillion QE example precedent!). Then this new money might initially cause a slight dilution in the value of the Euro, but will recover and revalue quickly due to the Multiplier Effect on European stimulus of the real economies (not speculative asset bubbles). This I believe has been the reason why despite 17 Trillion Dollar Debt of the US, the transactional value of the dollar has been strengthening, unemployment is falling, the US economy has been growing....
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Moctavia TakisV • 23 minutes ago
I agree, something needs to be done and pronto. I think the ME is a lost cause. Money is not the problem with so many rich oil producing countries as neighbours but the will to change is missing, too much hate which the West cannot cure.
We better look at Africa and find a solution there before half of that continent heads towards Europe. But this should be a task organised by the UN with funding and support from the EU among other countries. The situation in Africa is an African problem not a European one in particular, and we don't want it to become one.
o ZeGerman Tom Sykes • a day ago
Sorry, but this is just wrong: Germany did not invite refugees. Germany let them in for humanitarian reasons (Merkels claim that there is not limit to asylum is technical right), after Greece just let them enter the Schengen area...What alternative did Germany have? Close the borders while thousands of refugees were already on the balkan?
It is pathetic to blame Germany for taking care of refugees that entered the Schengen area because Greece did not fulfil its obligations!
Why does Greece not protect its borders? Where is the (mighty) Greek navy?
After ruining the Euro, Greece is about to ruin Schengen...
Germany needs to close its borders as soon as possible...
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TakisV ZeGerman • a few seconds ago
Greece did not invite refugees either! GR saved them from the sea for humanitarian reasons. What alternatives did GR have? No EU infrastructural support, no food, no money, no Troika urgency....
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meanwhile • a day ago
Italy Dreads Looming Invasion of 400,000 New Immigrants ‘in Coming Weeks’ - http://www.breitbart.com/natio...
As the Schengen treaty guaranteeing open internal European
borders continues to crumble, Italy is gearing up for a tidal wave of as
many as 400,000 immigrants “in the coming weeks,” according to Italian sources, and worse still, they will be coming to stay.
Italian authorities fear that their worst nightmare is materializing before their eyes: as droves of immigrants arrive on Italy’s shores, they have no choice but to remain in Italy.
According to analysts, the worst is yet to come. Until a few days ago the Italian peninsula was a transit channel for tens of thousands of desperate migrants en route to the countries of Northern Europe, yet now these same migrants are finding themselves stranded in Italy because of closed borders to the north. Overnight, Italy has moved from being a passageway to a dead end.
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BrownTrousers meanwhile • a day ago
So shifting the problem from Sweden and Germany to Italy.
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meanwhile • a day ago
MASSIVE Migrant Wave Expected As Men Demand Wives, Children Are Brought To Europe - http://www.breitbart.com/londo...
A second wave of migrants is set to break across Europe as the wives and children of men who have already made the journey set out to join them.
According to European Union law, migrants already settled in member states are entitled to bring their families to live with them in their adopted country as part of their right to a family life.
As January draws to a close, the demographics of those arriving by boat in Greece has already shifted, revealing the changing face of the migration crisis. 2015 was characterised by predominantly male migration – 73 percent of those landing on Greek shores last summer were men.
But that figure has already dropped to 45 percent, while the number of women has doubled. Greece has also seen a huge rise in the number of under 18s arriving; they now make up a third of migrants landing on the Greek Islands, according to figures from the UN’s Refugee Agency.
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FunkyFreddy2k meanwhile • a day ago
of course. The initial wave was small but most troublesome to justify. Why let in hundreds of thousands of single men?
But that's happened and in the past now.
Now they have the law on their side for the 2nd much bigger wave of wives and multiple children for each male already here.
One interesting question though - what about those with multiple wives and children from those wives?
o ZeGerman Tom Sykes
Sorry, but this is just wrong: Germany did not invite refugees. Germany let them in for humanitarian reasons (Merkels claim that there is not limit to asylum is technical right), after Greece just let them enter the Schengen area...What alternative did Germany have? Close the borders while thousands of refugees were already on the balkan?
It is pathetic to blame Germany for taking care of refugees that entered the Schengen area because Greece did not fulfil its obligations!
Why does Greece not protect its borders? Where is the (mighty) Greek navy?
After ruining the Euro, Greece is about to ruin Schengen...
Germany needs to close its borders as soon as possible...
TakisV ZeGerman •
Greece did not invite refugees either! GR saved them from the sea for humanitarian reasons. What alternatives did GR have? No EU infrastructural support, no food, no money, no Troika urgency....
meanwhile •
MASSIVE Migrant Wave Expected As Men Demand Wives, Children Are Brought To Europe - http://www.breitbart.com/londo...
A second wave of migrants is set to break across Europe as the wives and children of men who have already made the journey set out to join them.
According to European Union law, migrants already settled in member states are entitled to bring their families to live with them in their adopted country as part of their right to a family life.
As January draws to a close, the demographics of those arriving by boat in Greece has already shifted, revealing the changing face of the migration crisis. 2015 was characterised by predominantly male migration – 73 percent of those landing on Greek shores last summer were men.
But that figure has already dropped to 45 percent, while the number of women has doubled. Greece has also seen a huge rise in the number of under 18s arriving; they now make up a third of migrants landing on the Greek Islands, according to figures from the UN’s Refugee Agency.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/12126279/Is-Greece-about-to-be-martyred-again-by-the-EU.html#comment-2490972523
o TakisV meanwhile
This means someone has to make the dentures, will employ people and economy grows by the multiplier effect...
This shows that migrants can stimulate an economy as there is need for food, provisions, housing , furniture, clothing, motor cars / transport, etc.
Effectively, the State will stimulate the German Economy and create jobs. Hence Merkel not so stupid, hey?
TakisV Chris • 4 minutes ago
Unemployment in GR, Spain & GR is the greatest man-made disaster of Euro Economics. However, if the ECB prints money to support State Budgets and Disasters, provided it is directed to the real economy of job creation, and infrastructure projects such as green energy or Health & Education, then there is no asset bubbles or inflationary dynamics. What will happen there might be a slight re-distribution of wealth through perceived dilution of the Euro, from North to South without affecting the taxpayer. Due to the multiplier effect of employment created and velocity of money in circulation, there will be Growth of the total economy, which in turn will improve the strength of the Euro against the Dollar say. This will offset any devaluation effected by the perceived dilution of the currency due to Fiat Injected Money used to fight austerity disasters or migrant disasters or climate disasters, etc....Also, country debts can be repaid thru fiat support (eg PIGS), which will install confidence in the economy and banking sector in particular.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12133399/uk-manufacturing-factory-output-pmi.html
2016-02-02
• TakisV
The general improvement of the UK Economy and Demand Boost for the UK Manufacturing Sector PROVES BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT of the econo-sceptics that QE stimulation via money printing (Controlled Fiat expansion of money by Central Banks) is the correct recipe to avoid Austerity and reduce unemployment. Any perceived dilution of the currency predicted by FIAT-Sceptics, is more than offset through a growth of exports and the economy in general, which has the effect of REVALUATION of the currency, thus equalising any consequences of Fiat Money.
This shows the way forward for Europe in General, that Austrian Economics of Austerity NEED TO BE IMMEDIATELY SUSPENDED. The ECB should start printing money credit to repay National Debts of the PIGS so we can get Europe out of the spider's web of unemployment and social disaster... AND REDUCE TAXATION RATES TO A REASONABLE LEVEL per Irish precedent of Low Corporate tax to attract investments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12135069/Scrap-the-tax-on-profits-but-dont-tax-turnover.html
2016-02-02
• TakisV •
An alternative tax would be to abolish tax altogether, (Corporate & Personal), but instead impose a FINANCIAL TRANSACTION TAX generated inside the UK for every single penny that gets debited or credited to any bank account, local or abroad. The big players will obviously pay the most taxes, and the speculators will think again, as any share transaction has a financial value.
TakisV • 16 minutes ago
The future demands that FIAT Controlled money printing QE starts subsidising Tax Receipts of a State, and the proposed single small tax on turnover and div pay-outs only is a good idea.
The general improvement of the UK Economy and Demand Boost for the UK Manufacturing Sector PROVES BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT of the econo-sceptics that QE stimulation via money printing (Controlled Fiat expansion of money by Central Banks) is the correct recipe to avoid Austerity and reduce unemployment. Any perceived dilution of the currency predicted by FIAT-Sceptics, is more than offset
through a growth of exports and the economy in general, which has the effect of
REVALUATION of the currency, thus equalising any consequences of Fiat Money.
This shows the way forward for Europe in General, that Austrian Economics of
Austerity NEED TO BE IMMEDIATELY SUSPENDED. The ECB should start printing money credit to repay National Debts of the PIGS so we can get Europe out of the spider's web of unemployment and social disaster... AND REDUCE TAXATION RATES TO A REASONABLE LEVEL per Irish precedent of Low Corporate tax to attract
investments
rycK TakisV •
"The ECB should start printing money credit to repay National Debts of the PIGS so we can get Europe out of the spider's web of unemployment and social disaster.."
Cheap credit remembered and apologized for. Print more money and we will be free of debt!!
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TakisV rycK
You are missing the point. We need to fight the disaster of unemployment &youth unemployment in particular, which is exceeding 50% in S Europe. We need a blueprint to get out of our financially induced mess. This is a way out. DEBT SHOULD BECOME EXTINCT for Sovereigns and taxation low. Printing of controlled fiat money should become the norm of financing State Budgets and infrastructure.
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rycK •
And, where is the model for this magic maneuver anywhere in the economics books?Many states have tried to print their way out of debt and despair [Germany, twice, Argentina, several times, Greece three times at least, Hungary, the record holder of inflation records with 10^19 fold inflation and others.This mess looks like 1933 again with unemployment and underemployment at record levels.
The real problem is that jobs cannot be offered as corporate taxes are too high, rules and phony regulations are high costs to business so nobody is willing to risk capital for a certain loss. Governments cannot ever make good on promises they have made that require massive debt to fund.
There is one good way to extinguish the debts here and there and that is for a currency to collapse. That then forces paper assets to head toward zero where they belong in many cases, like bonds, and for tangible assets to be the basis of any new start.
The high unemployment is forced by governments spending too much and taxing too much. There is no way to recover from this other than just printing more money and hoping for inflation.
TakisV rycK
Why?
The notion of debt for Sovereigns needs to be remoulded. If money is used to build a dam, school, road, hospital, port, etc it gets converted into a national asset. So Sovereign QE (Fiat money printing) should be thought of as equity, reflected by the national assets
rycK
If that were true, and the notion is dismissed by history, then why not have the ECB just print money, wipe out all debts. print more and spend it on infrastructure and windmills and we will all be free of debt and prosperous?
The debt to GDP of the UK is some 220% or so and there is no way to address the debt by debt reduction payments or balanced budgets or any other means other than fast inflation in the double or triple digit level.
As Voltaire once said the value of fiat money will eventually reach its true value, which is zero.
TakisV rycK
Value of money is relative. If Fiat money is printed by all the major currency Central Banks to fund State budgets, then the relative exchange rates remain constant between them and alleviates the fear of inflation (provided such fiat is not used to push asset bubbles, but diligently directed to the real economy, ie employment and value add.)
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rycK
An example of this obvious miracle from history for us to think about?
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TakisV rycK • a minute ago
This is new 'LATERAL THOUGHTS' of mine for a future society, where a transition is required (Instead of States having to borrow from bankers or markets, the States Globally Adopt a new way of financing their shortfalls through 'Fiat Equity'
This will ultimately lead to much lower tax base, improvements of Social Structures in society, and less unemployment in a world of levelled playing fields, fair trade and passive re-distribution of wealth through empowerment and earning capacity of the lower economic classes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12136090/Mapped-Europe-divided-how-the-jobless-disease-is-splitting-the-continent-apart.html
2016-02-03
• TakisV • 7 minutes ago
The challenge remains THAT UNLESS unemployment is rapidly reduced, S Europe in particular will be the next social disaster zone of mass exodus of refugees & emigration. The youth/pensioner demographics will be further distorted to a level of irreversible unsustainability, even with ever increasing taxes and sovereign debts.
The root cause of unemployment was initially irresponsible state debt& austerity policies, which caused loss of investor confidence, higher taxation and bank runs in GR.
The only way to reverse this trend is for the ECB to create a Special 'Marshall Plan' QE to 'pay-off' and reduce State Debts of countries such as GR,ESP, ITA,PORT. This will mean that Austerity can be reversed, taxation rates reduced to Irish Levels, business confidence returned, and hence investment in real infrastructure and employment creating projects will return to some normality. for life to go on.
The KEY: The ECB dilution of the Euro (redistribution of some wealth), to promote growth and recovery (and later revaluation of the Euro follows)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12147540/stock-markets-europe-banks-recession-crisis-crash.html
• TakisV
The future demands that FIAT Controlled money printing QE starts subsidising Tax Receipts of a State and should be used as a new way forward to eliminate boom-bust cycles, uncertainty, bail-in uncertainty that causes bank runs and low confidence for investing in an economy, etc.
The general improvement of the UK Economy and Demand Boost for the UK
Manufacturing Sector PROVES BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT of the econo-sceptics that
QE stimulation via money printing (Controlled Fiat expansion of money by
Central Banks) is the correct recipe to avoid Austerity and reduce
unemployment. Any perceived dilution of the currency predicted by
FIAT-Sceptics, is more than offset through a growth of exports and the economy in general, which has the effect of REVALUATION of the currency, thus equalising any consequences of Fiat Money.
This shows the way forward for Europe in General, that Austrian Economics of
Austerity NEED TO BE IMMEDIATELY SUSPENDED. The ECB should start printing money credit to repay National Debts of the PIGS so we can get Europe out of the spider's web of unemployment and social disaster... AND REDUCE TAXATION RATES TO A REASONABLE LEVEL per Irish precedent of Low Corporate tax to attract investments
We need to fight
the disaster of unemployment &youth unemployment in particular, which is
exceeding 50% in S Europe. We need a blueprint to get out of our financially
induced mess. This is a way out. DEBT SHOULD BECOME EXTINCT for Sovereigns and taxation low. Printing of controlled fiat money should become the norm of financing State Budgets and infrastructure.
The notion of debt for Sovereigns needs to be remoulded. If money is used to build
a dam, school, road, hospital, port, etc it gets converted into a national
asset. So Sovereign QE (Fiat money printing) should be thought of as equity,
reflected by the national assets
Value of money is relative. If Fiat money is printed by all the major currency Central Banks to fund State budgets, then the relative exchange rates remain constant between them and alleviates the fear of inflation (provided such fiat is not used to
push asset bubbles, but diligently directed to the real economy, ie employment
and value add.)
This policy of rejuvenating the way we think of running our countries,
will ultimately lead to much lower tax base, improvements of Social Structures
in society, and less unemployment in a world of levelled playing fields, fair
trade and passive re-distribution of wealth through empowerment and earning
capacity of the lower economic classes.
TakisV > Brian Otridge
We have replaced Investment Capitalism with Speculative Capitalism for the benefit of the privileged few and the detriment of society in general. Short term speculation needs to be banished, and Debt Control to exclude Asset Bubble encouragement.
Pension Funds need to invest in Real employment creating assets for the long term, not surrendered to brokers and speculator 'mafias'
o Brian Otridge Liberal_Elite
What we have is neither capitalism nor socialism.
It's crony capitalism - that's real capitalism and real socialism stitched up so it only benefits the cheats and liars in both business and politics.
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TakisV Brian Otridge
We have replaced Investment Capitalism with Speculative Capitalism for the benefit of the privileged few and the detriment of society in general. Short term speculation needs to be banished, and Debt Control to exclude Asset Bubble encouragement.
Pension Funds need to invest in Real employment creating assets for the long term, not surrendered to brokers and speculator 'mafias'
Brian Otridge
You're talking about merely the investment end of capitalism (ie gambling). When I use the word capitalism, I mean to include private-sector activity, making things, doing things, selling them, making a profit. It's what really makes the world go round, and for SMEs (who generate 80% of all new trade/jobs etc) the investment end is almost irrelevant, except when they need a loan.
Crony capitalism seeks to do away with the little man, and just have a few big cronies in the market who can stitch it up to their benefit, and at the moment most of LibLabCon and most of the Euro parties seem hell-bent on helping them do just that.
Jonationalist Kronsteen • 2 hours ago
The gold standard won't work because implementing it will mean that if growth ever exceeds the increase in supply of gold, you'll have deflation.
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Kronsteen Jonationalist • 2 hours ago
Probably right in practice, but gold needs to play a greater role, for sure. These Keynesian policies has led us to disaster.
TakisV Kronsteen • a few seconds ago
I do not believe these 'Keynesian' (QE) policies have led to disaster... Just look at your UK Economy. Where would the Pound and unemployment be without the QE? The economic growth UK and US are experiencing since 2008 is precisely because of controlled printing of Fiat Money to get confidence and economic growth moving forward. (The opposite effect can be observed with the Austerity policies in GR)
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brian-x2 • 5 minutes ago
Back, behind the scenes as always Takis.
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TakisV brian-x2 •
The emphasis is ' the righteous & just Way Forward' for society my friend
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• Johnnymcevoy
Chickens. Home. Roost.
The 'government' Ponzi scheme is busted open. They can't steal any more from you and I.
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TakisV Johnnymcevoy • 2 minutes ago
Bail ins from taxpayers or depositors and savers (pensioners) as well as higher taxation is always a next dimension - Just look at poor Greece, that has become the most over-taxed country in the world probably, thanks to the clever 'brains' of Europe, that shoot the wounded.....
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Sammy Horiboyable . • 4 hours ago
Depends what currency it's in and whether the issuer has the ability to print more. The UK, for example, cannot default on its Sterling obligations, it just prints money to settle them. Greece or Spain, for example, cannot do so for their Euro obligations.
The astonishing thing so far is that the debasement of national currencies by their governments/central banks has not led to investor strikes or currency crises. That's partly because all governments/central banks have been doing it so it becomes a relative thing. As soon as one breaks ranks though, look out.
Might be worth having a look at the UK trade figures issued today btw. Record goods deficit due in no small part to exports to the EU falling and imports rising. The situation would be much worse if teh oil price hadn't collapsed as that has reduced substantially the cost of imports.
LabLibCon_decadesofdestruction Sammy • 2 hours ago
If governments can print then they will print but it still devalues the currency so the debt will be repaid with something worth far less.
TakisV LabLibCon_decadesofdestruction
There is a PARADOX to be observed with money printing. Although it 'devalues' the currency in theory, because
FIRSTLY: all other big currencies do the same (eg US, Yen, Yuan, Euro, UK Pound, the effect of devaluation does not occur, bar chasing of some asset bubbles such as London Prime Property.
SECONDLY: QE money printing helps to prop up the local economy in nominal terms, which results in economic confidence, growth and lower unemployment. This in turn leads to euphoric sentiments towards the currency, hence brings about an unexpected 'revaluation' relative to other baskets of currency, which counteracts the 'expectation of devaluation due to money printing.
HENCE, provided QE is controlled and directed towards REAL ECONOMY and not speculative asset financing, it is a good mechanism to avoid economic distress.
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Sammy LabLibCon_decadesofdestruction • 28 minutes ago
Yes, but that's the point, governments can't print Euros, only the ECB can do that and they can only do that if, whatever the formal rules may say, the Germans agree. And the Germans aren't going to agree to debase/devalue their own currency simply to bale out other countries. That would have happened long since if that were not the case. Of course we may not be far away from Germany needing to print Euros in order to bale out their own banking system, but they're a long way behind the UK in that regard.
And while what you say about devaluing and repaying in something worth far less is obviously true in principle, it hasn't so far worked that way in practice for the UK (and the US for that matter). It should have, and surely will do eventually, but it is a complete mystery to me why any non-sterling investor would buy UK debt just now. Sterling can't remain one of the least bad options for much longer with asset price bubbles all over the economy and appalling trade figures.
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brian-x2 Sammy
> Greece or Spain, for example, cannot do so for their Euro obligations.
True, but on the other hand, the ECB can.
• kg01
Watch this crisis carefully because it will redefine politics, monetary policy and economies. This is our generational financial crisis that will shake up the current system.
Since 2008 the world has increased the global debt load by tens of trillions of dollars and negative rates and tax hunting are only the start. Britain has one of the worst debts and deficits in Europe so do the math and consider how it will affect this country.
The balance sheet strains and anger over cuts and taxes will explode into the mainstream and many will hit the streets. Did you think politicians were buying water cannons and militarizing police for YOUR safety?? They know the game is up and we will likely slide further into authoritarianism with the chance of a diversion battle with Russia a possibility. Deutsche Bank is the next Lehman and this was written about months ago. This is very serious and the next few years will be the worst our generation have seen.
Oh, and governments will eliminate cash - again to help us from bad guys. That's why there's so many cash-less propaganda articles doing the rounds from the FT and Harvard.
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TakisV kg01 •
At some stage the G20 will decide that all Sovereign Debts are to be pardoned and will be expunged through the issue of FIAT CREDIT by Central Banks.
This will suit the US to the tune of $18 Trillion, as well as smaller countries such as GR to the tune of Eu300 bn. The slab will be cleared and a new economic system of lower taxation regimes and FIAT balancing of Sovereign Budgets will be the kick-start to hopefully low unemployment and less social upheavals
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• TakisV •
There is a solution, which is currently not palatable to conventional economic thought.
However at the right (and desperate) time, it will be sprung on us as the ultimate saviour:
At some stage the G20 will decide that all Sovereign Debts are to be pardoned and will be expunged through the issue of FIAT CREDIT by Central Banks. All Sovereign Debts will be 'paid back' to bankers and investors, thus re-capitalising and improving balance sheets to reduce bail-in impacts to the savers.
This will suit the US Government to the tune of $18 Trillion, as well as smaller countries such as GR to the tune of Eu300 bn. The slab will be cleared and a new economic system of lower taxation regimes and FIAT balancing of Sovereign Budgets will be the kick-start to hopefully low unemployment and less social upheavals
What are the chances of this happening during this current crisis?
Miro23
Welcome to Weimar Germany - covering unpayable debts by issuing paper.
The debt will be cleared out but so will anyone with savings/deposits (i.e. mostly the middle class).
As in Germany, the banking elite will be long gone when this happens.
TakisV Miro23 •
The difference with Weimar is that Germany acted unilaterally.
This now is different, as the whole world is in the same pot, and G20 can provide the unity required
David323 • 12 minutes ago
Good comment. That rumour was floating around last year and I thought it came from the IMF.
It's a good idea and is all they can do to solve the current crisis, but I doubt they will.
There is a solution, which is currently not palatable to conventional economic thought.
However at the right (and desperate) time, it will be sprung on us as the ultimate saviour:
At some stage the G20 will decide that all Sovereign Debts are to be pardoned and will be expunged through the issue of FIAT CREDIT by Central Banks. All Sovereign Debts will be 'paid back' to bankers and investors, thus re-capitalising and improving balance sheets to reduce bail-in impacts to the savers.
This will suit the US Government to the tune of $18 Trillion, as well as smaller countries such as GR to the tune of Eu300 bn. The slab will be cleared and a new economic system of lower taxation regimes and FIAT balancing of Sovereign Budgets will be the kick-start to hopefully low unemployment and less social upheavals
What are the chances of this happening during this current crisis
upton TakisV
Zero, silly. All debts are someone else's asset.
TakisV upton
If a Sovereign Central Bank Decides to print Fiat Money, it does not have to incur debt for it, hence no one else's asset. By decree, they can use Fiat to repay bank & investor Government Paper if they wish, so in this case, 'they pay up' for someone's asset without having to borrow for it first...
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upton TakisV
So now you are retracting your $18 Trillion quoted above and only referring to the small CB part. Which is it please? You are hopelessly muddled.
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Catherine Carr upton • 5 hours ago
and it mostly pensions funds
o Miro23
Welcome to Weimar Germany - covering unpayable debts by issuing paper.
The debt will be cleared out but so will anyone with savings/deposits (i.e. mostly the middle class).
As in Germany, the banking elite will be long gone when this happens.
The difference with Weimar is that Germany acted unilaterally.
This now is different, as the whole world is in the same pot, and G20 can provide the unity required
Miro23 TakisV •
It’s not possible to clear off Greek, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, British and US government debt by printing money. At some point the holders of Dollars, Sterling and Euros will realize that there is a lot more currency circulating than there are real goods to buy – and you get inflation (UK, Euro area and US but also in Asia since they’re doing the same thing).
Weimar went from post WW1 deflation into inflation then hyperinflation but it took citizens a while to realize what was going on.
I’m not saying that government debts wouldn’t be cleared but savers and people on fixed incomes would be wiped out, with the difference that this time that high rates of inflation would be a worldwide phenomenon.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12151386/Hong-Kong-follows-global-rout-as-shares-plunge-live.html
o Fr.Duffy Fighting 69th mikhail
QE is like an opium addiction. Eventually, the addict not only doesn't get high, they end up permanently asleep..
ReHypothecation Fr.Duffy Fighting 69th
Go read the article explaining QE on the BoE website. While it's correct to say QE is not money creation it fails to outline the effects of QE over the long term. Others are now saying what I have for the past 8 years. QE has a knock on, and it fools investors into making 'bets' that are too risky. Many of those best are now failing hence the commodities rout. What is odd is the stupidity of Shale Oil - some two trillion dollars has been invested in this new industry yet half of it is not profitable at $50 per bbl. Dudley at BP knows this and has blatantly lied in the FT to protect their malinvestment in shale. Shale oil companies will be defaulting en masse in about three months at that point US markets will slump.
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Fr.Duffy Fighting 69th ReHypothecation
I live in the Rocky Mountains and have seen the Shale Oil bust up close and personal. Two of my friends have lost everything in Shale. QE will no longer achieve anything. Unfortunately, we have to go through a major downturn, and the sooner the better.
ReHypothecation bigbrotherwatcher
Central bankers have different motives. The bull market was driven by finance which is driven by margin on arbitrage. That in turn drives absurd bonuses. Over the years we've seen finance pay larger and larger amounts to those greasy looking people we see on the tube wearing Armani suits and shoes two inches longer than they should be. Britain and the USA have sold out to a form of capitalism that is now like a cancer. The EU and in particular the Germans have always been right about QE, and right about the best form of Socialism. Sadly the USA knows it can export its mistakes via dollar hegemony - go ask Brazil. Anyone voting for Brexit is very naive.
Skalla •
Janet Yellen grandmotherly approach will do nothing to block the sharkish ways of bankers and speculators. Anti-Usury and anti-speculation laws need to be reintroduced, the Fed needs to be nationalized, lobbies should be outlawed and the plutocrats should be forbidden to have any contact with the lawmakers and the governments
Skalla •
Didn't the G20 leaders promise in 2008 to suppress derivatives ? Each of these leaders tried to look the avenging hero then, but they have compromised with the bankers since then, and nothing has really improved ... Of all presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton is probably the most involved with bankers, as her husband was the one who gave then free rein ... I hope she does not get elected !
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joolsaitch
I said this on one or other of the on-line forums a couple of weeks ago.
The overarching problem is one of real and recognisable liquidity.
Individual citizens, the companies that employ them, the banks that provide the credit, the government that (supposedly) supports the whole house of cards - all of them cannot put their hands on real cash.
People exist on credit cards. If you don't believe me, take a look at what's going on at supermarket checkouts. Some may be using debit cards but not many.
These same people then borrow money from their bank accounts to make partial payments off their credit debt and because they are further in debt than their salaries (or other income) will allow for, so they will never be in a position to zero their accounts.
Employers are using borrowed money to pay for their business operations and their employee payrolls.
Finally, the banks don't actually have any money because nobody is saving anything!
Which leaves the government, who are busy printing more and more bank notes and pretending that, by so doing, they are (somehow) managing the crisis.
It's a joke people! The world in its entirety is in debt. Hopelessly, deeply in debt, so much so that they will NEVER be able to repay it all.
The third world countries, mainly cash economies, are OK for the moment but when the ultimate crash comes their carefully saved (sock under the bed) cash will evaporate as world exchange rates plummet.
Get an allotment and start growing food.
That's going to be the only way you'll be able to survive when the shlt finally hits the fan.
And, it's not so far away.
Wanderingone56
What a shame that so many people's income can be so badly affected by a collective set of jitters over numbers that are, at the best of times, best viewed skeptically.
So many people were persuaded to trust their pensions and other incomes to the Big Casino where they could be impoverished by professional gamblers.
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LastOrders Wanderingone56
Gambling is gambling, and whether it's in the casino or the stock market people have to accept the losses and the risk taken.
What is criminal is that our entire stability and wealth is based on this insecure system that is destined every few decades to collapse and cause huge financial pain to us all.
We should have moved on and progressed from this nonsense by now.
TakisV •
2016-02-16
If the US and UK had not begun with their QE policies (Money printing), their unemployment and state of their economy would have been at very low levels and in serious trouble. In contrast, the austerity levels in Europe has led to loss of confidence and extreme unemployment levels in South Europe.
This proves that controlled printing of FIAT money by a number of trading economies is not necessarily a bad thing. The expected devaluation of a currency ( and hence fear of wealth re-distribution) never happened in the FIAT economies because the growth of money supply created confidence and jobs, which had a counterbalancing effect on relative exchange rates, ie a revaluation propensity. Japan and currently the ECB (and China) therefore are on the correct policy stream to avoid further unemployment and stimulate confidence.
If social disasters and regional conflict are countered with peace initiatives supported by financial infrastructural FIAT non repayable funding from the IMF or the World Bank to create employment opportunities and a reasonable lifestyle, the phenomenon of economic and political refugees can be reversed. Then, such projections to 2080 will prove incorrect....QE can be used for society rebalancing
• TakisV
Our basic fundamentals of sovereign debt are possibly flawed. Historically, the European Rulers / Princes would 'borrow' money to launch wars, so that they could increase their wealth through capturing of enemy assets such as 'state jewels & treasures', as well as a new base for new taxes.
However, in a society where a sovereign needs funding for infrastructure eg dams, hospitals, etc, the State builds National Assets, hence this should be financed by Sovereign Equity issue (Fiat Money), not debts, as equity money is converted into long term essential and socially required assets. Therefore
1) Our current use of Sovereign Debt may be wrong
2) New thinking is essential, to expunge infrastructural debts through fiat money creation
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2016/02/26/nobel-prize-winning-economist-paul-krugman-says-he-sees-no-progress-on-greek-debt-crisis/
• TakisV
Unemployment in
GR, Spain & European Youth is the greatest man-made disaster of Euro Economics.
However, if the ECB prints money to support State Budgets / pay off excess Debts and Fund the MIgrant Disasters,
provided it is directed to the real economy of job creation, and infrastructure
projects such as green energy or Health & Education, then there will be no asset
bubbles or inflationary dynamics. What will happen: there might be a slight
re-distribution of wealth through perceived dilution of the Euro, from North to
South without affecting the taxpayer. Due to the multiplier effect of
employment created and velocity of money in circulation, there will be Growth
of the total economy of the Southern Countries, which in turn will improve the strength of the Euro
against the Dollar and other currencies. This will offset any devaluation effected by the
perceived dilution of the currency due to Fiat Injected Money used to fight
austerity disasters or migrant disasters or climate disasters, etc....Also,
country debts can be repaid thru fiat support (eg PIGS), which will install
confidence in the economy and banking sector in particular.
TakisV
What the ECB has
to do is CREATE A MARSHALL PLAN FUND for all affected disaster areas, such as GR. This can
be on the basis of FIAT money printing to 'repay' excess Debt and fund Infrastructure. and never needs to get repaid ( Per US
Fed 17 Trillion QE example precedent!). Then this new money might initially
cause a slight dilution in the value of the Euro, but will recover and revalue
quickly due to the Multiplier Effect on European stimulus of the real economies
(not speculative asset bubbles). This I believe has been the reason why despite
17 Trillion Dollar Debt of the US, the transactional value of the dollar has
been strengthening, unemployment is falling, the US economy has been
growing....
CommentedTakis V FEB 28, 2016
Democracy manipulation by politicians, as well as inefficiency of democratic results (eg influence of un-informed or biased opinion thru self interest rather than the common good), dictates that democracy cannot be the criterion of rational thinking. Instead, a few critical measurable Key Performance Indicators (KPI's) should be the driving measurement of success of political parties. governments and the EU. To me, the prime KPI is Regional Unemployment and Youth .unemployment, and the successful solution of the Migrant Challenge.. IF THIS KPI can be successfully addressed and solved, then the EU can be seen a success. If however the EU continues to be dominated by Nationalistic Self Interests without common purpose solutions, then it has failed and it must be disbanded in the interests of national preservation and citizen protection (eg BREXIT).
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/keynesian-policy-at-80-economic-recovery-by-robert-skidelsky-2016-02
CommentedTakis V FEB 29, 2016
Unemployment in
GR, Spain & European Youth is the greatest man-made disaster of Euro Economics. However, if the ECB prints money to support State Budgets / pay off excess Debts and Fund the MIgrant Disasters,
provided it is directed to the real economy of job creation, and infrastructure projects such as green energy or Health & Education, then there will be no asset bubbles or inflationary dynamics. What will happen: there might be a slight re-distribution of wealth through perceived dilution of the Euro, from North to South without affecting the taxpayer. Due to the multiplier effect of
employment created and velocity of money in circulation, there will be Growth of the total economy of the Southern Countries, which in turn will improve the strength of the Euro against the Dollar and other currencies. This will offset any devaluation effected by the
perceived dilution of the currency due to Fiat Injected Money used to fight austerity disasters or migrant disasters or climate disasters, etc....Also, country (sovereign) debts can be repaid thru fiat support (eg for the PIGS), which will install confidence in the economy and banking sector in particular.
This principle of Infrastructure FIAT FUNDING by all G20 Central banks can be extended to repair the damages caused by colonialism or social disasters in Africa and the lesser developed world. FIAT SPEND for infrastructure helps growth through employment and disposable income to revive economic confidence, not asset bubbles. FIAT CREDIT for infrastructure should never be a loan or a DEBT of a Sovereign country, only a means to rebalance human equity with socially desirable infrastructure needs (Roads, Hospitals, Water, Schooling &Public Education. We should remember that idle hands create social hotspots, hence EMLOYMENT CREATION MUST BECOME THE BIGGEST DRIVER of the 21st Century
TakisV •
What the ECB has to do is CREATE A MARSHALL PLAN FUND for all affected disaster areas, such as GR. This can be on the basis of FIAT money printing to 'repay' excess Debt and fund
Infrastructure. and never needs to get repaid ( Per US Fed 17 Trillion QE example precedent!). Then this new money might initially cause a slight dilution in the value of the Euro, but will recover and revalue quickly due to the Multiplier Effect on European stimulus of the real economies
(not speculative asset bubbles). This I believe has been the reason why despite 17 Trillion Dollar Debt of the US, the transactional value of the dollar has
been strengthening, unemployment is falling, the US economy has been growing.... IF KEYNES WAS ALIVE, HE WOULD AGREE WITH ME
TakisV Polycrates •
Old thinking has failed societies, hence all the social upheavals due to idle minds and idle souls - Unemployment and lack of infrastructure in underdeveloped regions of the world has led to social disaster areas, breakdown of families, regional conflicts and migration challenges.
What we need is out of the box thinking, which I have frequently commented on DISQUS under TakisV. Non speculative FIAT non repayable Funding will be the quantum leap economic theory has to make to repair the desperate state of world societies. A Marshall type plane for S Europe is just one way of addressing the European challenges, and esp GR,
Marisya TakisV
So ppl. who saved their money should accept devaluation to help the Greek, we pay already enourmous amounts because the interest on savings is "thanks" to Drahi already zero, nice for states who need credit for almost nothing.
For the rest Greece already got far more then the Marshall fundhelp after ww2 for whole of Europe, with no results.
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TakisV Marisya •
Did the US Dollar devalue with 17 Trillion Debt that the US Gov never has any intention to pay back? No! In fact, 1.34 US $ = 1 Euro a few years ago, and now only 1.12 US $ = 1 Euro, despite the Europeans (ECB) being so fiscally austere. This was not caused by any Marshall Plan or Fiat policies in the EC. It was purely caused by LACK OF CONFIDENCE in the Euro relative to the US Dollar.
Therefore, any fear of initial 'devaluation' of your savings, will be counteracted by a renewed growth of the European economies in the South and hence return of confidence in the Euro, which will make up your feared losses.
Commented Takis V MAR 6, 2016
Agree with the concept of FIAT / Helicopter nor repayable money, but the method of implementation needs to be well thought out for maximum effect to reduce unemployment, grow the economies without creating speculative asset bubbles or cash hoarding.
Some of the options to consider:
1) Reduce Taxation by significant steps (eg 30% pa) and balance the state fiscus by fiat money printing
2)Pay back Government Debt /Bonds thru FIAT, thus pshing money back to the banks and investors for employment creating credit support of the private sector (NB: Must avoid spreculative credit)
3) Let the state invest in infrastructure projects to create national assets (eg Dams) and provide local employment.
4) The G20 can decide on a co-ordinated policy to rebuild all disaster economies . including reparations of war and colonialism (eg roads, power etc) and to support rural rejuvenation and agricultural projects. This will eliminate migration and social tensions that get politicised due to unemployed youth and idle minds.
CONCLUSION:
FIAT MONEY MUST BE USED FOR ECONOMIC & SOCIAL REPARATIONS
Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coordinated-monetary-policy-revive-growth-by-kemal-dervis-2016-03#YtMKHr0OI3JfvlZI.99
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coordinated-monetary-policy-revive-growth-by-kemal-dervis-2016-03?utm_source=Project+Syndicate+Newsletter&utm_campaign=16eee7aaba-Roubini_2008_Revisited_3_6_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-16eee7aaba-104290981
Underscoring the ECB's determination to drive inflation back up to its target of just below 2pc, Mr Praet did not rule out printing money and giving it away to households.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/18/ecbs-bazooka-has-not-run-out-of-ammunition-says-chief-economist/
1.
This Is The World's Happiest Country
fortune.comDenmark overtook Switzerland as the world's happiest place, according to a report on Wednesday that urged nations regardless of wealth to tackle inequality and the enviro…
PETER VANGELATOS
Full Employment and good social security & health based on high national wealth & GDP will always favour the developed European Countries. How can you remedy the ills of past colonialism and bad governance for the bottom 50% of the world??? Then you have a less polarised Happiness Index without the 'noise' of survival below the breadline. That is the area where the WEF, the IMF and the World Bank should innovate, and not just impose financial austerity policies to reign in debt! In the 21st Century, unemployment is a DISASTER AREA for our societies, leading to social strife, migration, corruption and amplification od the wealth gap
Viktor Galambos
Denmark is #7, Iceland is #1 in the world in antidepressant consumption also. How does it stack up?
Pranab Ghosh
John, In what way does Denmark have less freedom compared to other countries? Surprised to hear that happiness is not a good barometer.
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PETER VANGELATOS : 19 March 2016
REPLY ON: Happiest Country in the world is Denmark
Full Employment and good social security & health based on high national wealth & GDP will always favour the developed European Countries. How can you remedy the ills of past colonialism and bad governance for the bottom 50% of the world??? Then you have a less polarised Happiness Index without the 'noise' of survival below the breadline. That is the area where the WEF, the IMF and the World Bank should innovate, and not just impose financial austerity policies to reign in debt! In the 21st Century, unemployment is a DISASTER AREA for our societies, leading to social strife, migration, corruption and amplification od the wealth gap
https://www.linkedin.com/home?trk=nav_responsive_tab_home
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-real-national-income-mirage-by-yanis-varoufakis-2016-03#5YbCqzYVOMws2sXt.99
CommentedTakis V MAR 20, 2016
In my opinion, it is the % unemployment that matters in a country supported by the GNP per capita (Nominal Income per person). These two indicators should indicate the pulse rate of an economy and whether the country needs ICU support.
Further, in an economy such as Cyprus or GR, it is absolutely irrational to have such high tax rates and expect an economy to grow through investments. Both economies need helicopter money support until an acceptable employment & GNP per Capita has been achieved. Debt repayment should be seen as a consequential priority once ICU is no longer needed. (The US will never repay their Trillion Dollar Debts, and they are not in a hurry to reduce Debt -That's because of the rational logic outlined above)
Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-real-national-income-mirage-by-yanis-varoufakis-2016-03#5YbCqzYVOMws2sXt.99
Commented Jason H MAR 21, 2016
The USA has its own currency and can always pay any debts in its own currency. The EU ignored this simple fact and so no country can spend without first borrowing money from someone else. Absolute disaster that was predicted yet ignored.
Danielle DiMartino Booth
President at Money Strong, LLC; Former Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Is America's Economy Shooting Blanks?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/americas-economy-shooting-blanks-danielle-dimartino-booth
PETER VANGELATOS (28 MARCH 2016)
As an ex-pat professional in Africa, here is how I perceive world growth will revive: THROUGH GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY CREATION. The QE programmes of the US, UK, ECB and BoJ have unfortunately been mis-directed to the non-real economy, leading to asset bubbles and financial 'tricks' to create wealth for the very few, without creating any new real employment opportunities. My solution to a new phase of economic growth relates to DEVELOPING THE UNDERDEVELOPED WORLD, so as to create circulation of money among the poorest of the poor in Africa, Latin America and Middle East / Asia Subcontinent. The west, and specifically the G7 economies should consider the creation of QE HELICOPTER MONEY in proportion by all the G7 CentralBanks, but only to be spent in the real economy through project directed Funding. This must be in Infrastructure Projects (Hospitals, Schools, Water & Sewage, Roads, Rail, Harbours, Airports, Agri-Project Developments, Communication and Green Electricity, etc). The Western Economies possess the knowhow and Knowledge Base for such projects, so there will be huge economic spin offs, whilst establishing new employment in these underdeveloped or developing Regions. Employment and new middle class wealth will, not only reduce the gap between the haves and the have not's, but will ensure a better quality of life and education opportunities for the underprivileged populations of our world. By transforming the unemployed masses into a middle class that has some basic assets and property to protect, it reduces social tensions and social conflicts, improves the level of education, reduces extremism and makes people want to stay in their own country, thus eliminating illegal Migration Challenges. The American WAR MACHINE must now be converted to a Marshall type economy of INFRASTRUCTURE ASSISTANCE to save America and the world for our future generations. I have a blog on a Future Ideal world using What-If Scenarios, and strongly believe that my proposed ideas per above is the positive way forward for a better human society. I would look forward to assist in any future facilitation that the G7 may request. (NOTE: Helicopter Money can be created without National Debt to the Taxpayer by the Fed or Central Banks through FIAT AGREEMENTS between them, so that arbitrage between currencies does not materialise, and inflationary pressures do not arise. Any fear of currency devaluation is counteracted by confidence in a revived growth economy which supports the strength of a currency, so if the G7 agree in unison to the creation of Helicopter Funding, control mechanisms can be introduced to eliminate speculation or asset bubbles instead of real employment funding) Regards from a sunny Johannesburg. Peter V Contact: vangelatos@telkomsa.net
Takis V APR 4, 2016 (Project Syndicate)
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/islamic-state-strategy-of-fear-by- george-soros-2015-12
Social Unrest, which is particularly pronounced in Religiously Intollerant societies, has to be fuelled by something. These root causes cannot be just the teachings of a dogma, but rather too many idle bodies and minds not having income or any assets to protect, instigated by selfish interests of irrational leaders.
Our solution lies in identifying social hotspots around the world and investing in infrastructure to create the basis of employment. If we enable socially underdeveloped societies to grow through economics, and find a way to eliminate arms manufacturers from supplying them weapons & support, then we will be able to eliminate social hotspots, whether at Boko Haram or Somali strongholds, Middle East & Asia sub-continent, and even Latin American drug empires. Read more Takis V APR 4, 2016
Comment by TakisV on GREECE-IMF Wikileaks
After the IMF Wikileaks on Greece manipulation, one needs to question whether the Troika was ever negotiating in good faith with Syriza when YV was in charge of the GR negotiations. Hence egos and secret political agendas ensured that YV was never allowed to arrive at a logical and credible deal for GR. One should give him credit for his theory of 'extend and pretend' by the Troika instead of considering practical sustainable solutions to reduce unemployment through rebuilding confidence in the Banking system and non-austerity policies to promote growth. (Solutions possible whether by Debt reduction or write off, ring-fencing for a few years, or Helicopter QE Money by the ECB, solutions could be found to avoid the current suffering of 50% youth unemployment, 25% general unemployment and a non existent economic growth rate)
Ref:
The Guardian 5 April 2016
Yanis Varoufakis: Why we must save the EU
The European Union is disintegrating – but leaving is not the answer
by Yanis Varoufakis
PETER VANGELATOS What the Troika failed to do prior to the 3rd MoU was to do a Root Cause Analysis to assess the AS-IS situation on the ground as this article is very clearly addressing, prior to prescribing TO-BE conditions. It is logically impossible to repay the GR Debt if Confidence in the economy does not return. Unfortunately, austerity, tax increases and pension cuts, added to depositor haircut fears, will never repatriate capital or bring back investment confidence to bring back growth. Instead, the Debt needs to be ring-fenced for a number of years, Tax breaks with improved tax collection needs to be instituted, and UNEMPLOYMENT REDUCTION becomes the only real goal of the EC and the GR Government
THE PANAMA PAPERS EXPOSE - WHERE DOES CORRUPTION START ?
5 April 2016 • 5:43am
• David Cameron's late father Ian Cameron linked to Panama Papers
• David Cameron urged to take action as six peers, three former Tory MPs and 'dozens' of party donors are named in leak
• 72 current or former heads of state implicated, including dictators accused of looting their own countries
• Vladimir Putin’s closest allies channelling millions of pounds through offshore companies
• What are the Panama Papers?
• 10 things we've learnt from the Panama Papers leak
5:43AM
Tax evasion investigations launched around the world
Several countries have launched tax evasion probes after a massive leak of confidential documents lifted the lid on the murky offshore financial dealings of a slew of politicians and celebrities.
The scandal erupted on Sunday when media groups began revealing the results of a year-long investigation into a trove of 11.5 million documents from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca, which specialises in creating offshore shell companies.
Where are all the Americans?
Fusion, one of the US media organisations given access to the leaked documents, has been looking at the reasons why only 211 people with American addresses have turned up in the data so far. The reason, it says, is that Americans can set up off-shore companies without even leaving the US, in states such as Delaware and Nevada.
Jason Sharman, co-author of Global Shell Games: Experiments in Transnational Relations, Crime, and Terrorism, puts it this way:
One of the forms of companies that’s even more secret than, say, a British Virgin Islands company is a company incorporated in almost any US state. If you form a British Virgin Islands company you have to declare who you are to the person forming the company for you; if you form in Nevada, for example, you don’t… So Nevada is great because it’s much more secret than the British Virgin Islands.
Linked In comment on PV Post
PETER VANGELATOS
On the 4th April 2016, The Panama Papers were leaked to the press, exposing hundreds of high level individuals and organisations for tax evasion and 'corrupt money' laundering. This expose proves that corruption is not restricted to the poor or uneducated classes, but ranges from presidents, dictators and businessmen to prime ministers and their families. So 'education' against corruption needs to be supported by international laws against Tax Havens and tracking of the flow of money. The effects of Bitcoin and crypto currencies on the rise or fall of corruption still need to be seen. The driving values of our modern society no longer seem to be personal pride or dignity, but rather the clandestine amassment of personal wealth without boundaries. This deprives the normal circulation of money from society at large and real investments in employment creation to be confined in Banks located in Tax-havens, for manipulation by shrewd investment gurus in short term gambling on asset bubbles
CORRUPTION & ENTREPRENEURSHIP
28 MARCH 2016
PART 1
Having been educated and raised in a Western Style society, I was brought up with the ethical principles that corruption, corporate collusion, tax evasion, corporate pilferage and graft are criminal offences that have no place in a developed society. I am sure that as I do, the majority of European and North American professional managers, businessmen and politicians absolutely agree with this philosophy and find it a natural rule of etiquette that must be followed by every one on the planet whether in employment or own businesses. This makes sense as the overall cost of transactions do not have to be adjusted for 'losses', thus keeping output prices lower and profitability at a higher level.
However, having spent the greater part of my professional career on the African sub-continent, I became very aware of the transgressions that take place and get reported on a daily basis, be it politicians, corporate construction and procurement tender collusion, tax evasion, as well as individual low level corporate fraud. I also became aware of an entrepreneurial mindset of beliefs in some cultures that believe: 'The End Justifies the Means' and ' bribing & graft' is acceptable and makes for an entrepreneurial spirit. In these cultures, especially where inequality of wealth is very pronounced and often the result of centuries of colonialism, many individuals see corruption and graft as the only way to win contracts or make a 'sales' commission from a seller who wants something badly. Going back to the Oriental and Middle East Ottoman occupations after the fall of Constantinople, it was considered common practice to 'oil a palm' or use Bakshish as a way of getting a trade done, or attaining a result.
There is a school of thought that believes 'corruption & graft' may help weak economies survive, by injecting 'illicit money' into regional economies. Unless corrupt money gets directly deposited into safe haven banks by the originators, it is probably used as cash money to spend on luxuries and entertainment that causes an immediate multiplier effect and keeps local micro-businesses and personal services alive. So corrupt or criminal practices are welcome by the local communities, that keep the graft culture alive.
SEE PART 2 BELOW
CORRUPTION & ENTREPRENEURSHIP
PART 2
Is it not possible that the dichotomy in cultural beliefs, supported by the excessive inequality of wealth, is creating the impression that corruption is seen as 'Entrepreneurship', and therefore is unofficially condoned ' as long as no one gets caught'? Besides Crime & Robbery, is corruption not seen by some as a sales commission and as a way of initially supplementing their income, creating seed capital for entrepreneurial ventures or business expansion or financial security and eventually reaching the circles of the Rich and Famous?
In conclusion, unless education changes cultural beliefs, corruption and graft will be very difficult to eliminate, especially when top European Corporations have openly admitted to it to sell products, whether military or public works programmes? And then, what about the internationally Business School Educated Mega Speculators that always win in a zero sum game through banking practices, insider trading or currency and bond manipulation?
On the 4th April 2016, The Panama Papers were leaked to the press, exposing hundreds of high level individuals and organisations for tax evasion and 'corrupt money' laundering. This expose proves that corruption is not restricted to the poor or uneducated classes, but ranges from presidents, dictators and businessmen to prime ministers and their families. So 'education' against corruption needs to be supported by international laws against Tax Havens and tracking of the flow of money. The effects of Bitcoin and crypto currencies on the rise or fall of corruption still need to be seen. The driving values of our modern society no longer seem to be personal pride or dignity, but rather the clandestine amassment of personal wealth without boundaries. This deprives the normal circulation of money from society at large and real investments in employment creation to be confined in Banks located in Tax-havens, for manipulation by shrewd investment gurus in short term gambling on asset bubbles.
POSTED ON MY LINKED IN PROFILE
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/the-scale-of-the-panama-papers?utm_content=bufferffad4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin.com&utm_campaign=buffer
PANAMA PAPERS
An enormous volume of data was released in the Panama Papers leak. In fact, the 2.6 terabytes of data, containing 11.5 million documents, positively dwarfs all previous data leaks seen to date.
To put the leak in perspective, the 11.5 million documents from the world's fourth biggest offshore law firm, Mossack Fonseca, outnumber the combined total of Wikileaks, Swiss leaks, Luxembourg tax files, and Offshore leaks.
PETER VANGELATOS: Is this not a very effective publicity campaign for the end of Tax Havens? But who stands to benefit most from whose misfortune? What is the motivating Power behind this? A chance 'wikileaks' campaigner or the IMF/World Bank type institution? Lots of questions remain....
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/apr/09/panama-papers-tax-havens-thomas-piketty?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H&utm_term=166283&subid=18238884&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
Tax Havens
In 2014, the LuxLeaks investigation revealed that multinationals paid almost no tax in Europe, thanks to their subsidiaries in Luxembourg. In 2016, the Panama Papers have shown the extent to which financial and political elites in the north and the south conceal their assets. We can be glad to see that the journalists are doing their job. The problem is that the governments are not doing theirs. The truth is that almost nothing has been done since the crisis in 2008. In some ways, things have even got worse.
Let’s take each topic in turn. Exacerbated fiscal competition on the taxing of profits of big companies has reached new heights in Europe. The United Kingdom is going to reduce its rate to 17%, something unheard of for a major country, while continuing to protect the predatory practices of the Virgin Islands and other offshore centres under the British Crown. If nothing is done, we will all ultimately align ourselves on the 12% of Ireland, or possibly on 0%, or even on grants to investments, as is already sometimes the case. In the meantime, in the United States where there is a federal tax on profits, that rate is 35% (not including the taxes levelled by states, ranging between 5% and 10%).
There is still one question outstanding: why have governments done so little since 2008 to combat financial opacity? The simple answer is that they were under the illusion that there was no need to act. Their central banks had printed enough currency to avoid the complete collapse of the financial system, thus avoiding the mistakes which post-1929 led the world to the brink of complete collapse. The outcome is that we have indeed avoided a widespread depression but in so doing we have refrained from the necessary structural, regulatory and fiscal reforms.
that the balance sheet of the major central banks (which has risen from 10% to 25% of GDP) remains low in comparison with the total financial assets held by public and private actors over each other (approximately 1,000% of GDP or even 2,000% in the United Kingdom) and could rise further in case of need. In reality, this mainly reveals the persistent hypertrophy of private-sector balance sheets and the extreme fragility of the system as a whole. It is to be hoped that the world will learn from the lessons of the Panama Papers and at long last combat financial opacity without waiting for a further crisis.
PETER VANGELATOS
We need to translate talks and presentations into Action Plans - otherwise we kick the can down the road. World Bank and IMF as well as UN need to take active role to alleviate poverty through INFRASTRUCTURE spend of Global QE Money. This will help reverse the disadvantages brought by colonisation and disorderly departure of underdeveloped regions of the world, as well as improve social standards through reduction of unemployment.
Global Free Trade IS NOT FREE and no number of NAFTA Agreements will equalise the playing fields if the root cause of our problems are not tackled. It starts with UNEMPLOYMENT of the masses, or inability to earn a living wage.
HELICOPTER MONEY - Extracts from:
Michael Heise
Michael Heise is Chief Economist of Allianz SE and the author of Emerging From the Euro Debt Crisis: Making the Single Currency Work
APR 20, 2016 27
The Case Against Helicopter Money
MUNICH – Despite years of expansionary monetary policy, the European Central Bank has failed to push inflation back up to its target of “below but close to 2%.” The latest measures – a zero interest rate on the ECB’s main refinancing operations, an increase in monthly asset purchases from €60 billion ($67 billion) to €80 billion, and an even lower deposit rate of -0.40% – are unlikely to change this. That is why some economists are urging the ECB to go even further, with so-called “helicopter drops” – that is, financing private consumption by printing money.
The idea of helicopter money dates back to the monetarism debates of the 1960s. A central bank, it was argued, never runs out of options for stimulating aggregate demand and stoking inflation, provided it is willing to resort to radical measures. But what was once a theoretical notion now seems to be a concrete possibility.
great initiative and noble thoughts - hats off to all
I think the unabated human desire and uncontrolled human activities are central to all problems in the world. scientific thinking, industrialization, globalization,urbanization along with population growth adds misery to the environment and humans themselves. the paradigm of development should shift from material gains to spiritual gains. being happy and content should be a greater achievement than rich and powerful. We should reduce our activities to as low as possible so that we do little damage to nature. In other words, we must change our mindset to 'give more and take less'.
DISASTERS - HOW DO WE DEAL WITH THEM IN A FUTURE SOCIETY?
The world’s failure to prepare for natural disasters will have “inconceivably bad” consequences as climate change fuels a huge increase in catastrophic droughts and floods and the humanitarian crises that follow, the UN’s head of disaster planning has warned.
Last year, earthquakes, floods, heatwaves and landslides left 22,773 people dead, affected 98.6 million others and caused $66.5bn (£47bn) of economic damage (pdf). Yet the international community spends less than half of one per cent of the global aid budget on mitigating the risks posed by such hazards.
Robert Glasser, the special representative of the secretary general for disaster risk reduction, said that with the world already “falling short” in its response to humanitarian emergencies, things would only get worse as climate change adds to the pressure
He said: “If you see that we’re already spending huge amounts of money and are unable to meet the humanitarian need – and then you overlay that with not just population growth … [but] you put climate change on top of that, where we’re seeing an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters, and the knock-on effects with respect to food security and conflict and new viruses like the Zika virus or whatever – you realise that the only way we’re going to be able to deal with these trends is by getting out ahead of them and focusing on reducing disaster risk.”
Failure to plan properly by factoring in the effects of climate change, he added, would result in a steep rise in the vulnerability of those people already most exposed to natural hazards. He also predicted a rise in the number of simultaneous disasters.
...He said that the internationally agreed Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction, which was adopted last year, offered the best way to reduce the human and financial cost of disasters.
“It’s basically about beginning to think of disaster risk as a core planning activity so that when countries invest in infrastructure they’re not building a hospital in a flood zone or establishing communities in areas vulnerable to storm surges and are not creating risk but identifying ways of reducing it,” he said.
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/24/world-heading-for-catastrophe-over-natural-disasters-risk-expert-warns
NEW GOVERNMENT STYLE FOR HUMANITY?
Let’s ditch the economy of the 1% and replace it with a human economy
If we want an economy of the 1%, then GDP is very useful. It tells us all we need to know. But if we want an economy that works for us all, we have to pay attention to what it is not telling us.
In the face of a growing inequality crisis, GDP tells us nothing about the distribution of growth. When just 62 people have the same wealth as half the world’s population, where a country like Zambia can grow rapidly in GDP terms and yet can see increased levels of poverty, and where the 1% own more than everyone else combined, growing GDP simply hides the poverty within.
GDP tells us nothing about the real price we are paying for such growth. Cutting down a forest for timber adds to GDP, but what we don’t record is the loss to our wealth in terms of natural resources. We treat a planet at crisis point as an externality that can be shunted into a future generation. We continue to act as if we had the natural resources of several planets, not one.
And thirdly GDP only values services that we have decided to attach a monetary value to. And by “we” I mean the men who generally decide these things.
GDP excludes care work and other unpaid work, most of which falls to women and girls in rich and in poor countries alike. When we talk about women’s economic empowerment we should be careful that we’re not just giving women more to do. Women already labour, already produce, and already add value. But because this is the caring or reproductive economy it is valueless to current macro-economist thinking. Famously if a man marries his maid, her work becomes no more than her wifely duty, and GDP falls.
These are the features of an economy for the 1%. Such an economy celebrates growth despite it leaving the poorest behind, it pushes us to burn and chop and extract way beyond our planetary boundaries, though the poorest will suffer the most from this; and it ignores much of the work that women do that keeps us all alive and healthy and happy.
The Human Economy for Oxfam is one in which governments act on behalf of the majority, and not in the interests of a tiny but powerful elite. It is one that lives within the boundaries of our planet. It is one in which people are valued equally, and not disregarded on the basis of their gender, colour or caste.
Crucially, it is an economy that can work better for women, and not the other way round. To do so it has to tackle the scourge of economic inequality as well as barriers to women’s participation. The same forces that are creating economic inequality are creating gender inequality too. These inequalities are intertwined and the solutions must be too.
It is not about taking the economy backwards, but evolving it forwards.
Businesses should thrive in a human economy. But we should think about new models that show as much concern for workers, their customers and the communities within which they exist as they do for their shareholders and executive boards.
Technology is a major part of a human economy. It is a great liberator. But too often now it is something to be feared because it will mean job losses for workers and the further accrual of wealth to those who own the machines.
Ultimately, a human economy recognises that economics is only a part of the picture – it is just one aspect of how we want to live together, and politics needs to re-enter the frame.
In retreating in fear from actively regulating and directing the economy to reduce inequality and deliver sustainable, equitable growth, governments are not being neutral, they are letting the powerful take control. Accountable, democratic government is the most powerful equalising force that humanity has ever invented. And nurturing, creative government is a force for cooperation and innovation.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/let-s-ditch-the-economy-of-the-1-and-replace-it-with-a-human-economy?utm_content=buffer2ccfe&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin.com&utm_campaign=buffer
MILESTONE EVENTS - JUNE 201 - DEC 2016
- Increase of Terrorist Attacks on innocent civilians , mainly by ISIS assailants
- Trump elected president of the USA, despite all predictive models for Mrs Clinton; Dow Jones and Footsie hit record highs
- BREXIT won & Cameron departed as UK Prime Minister
- Sterling devalues vs Euro
- US Dollar strengthens to record levels vs Euro
- Greece shows budget surplus and signs of positive growth in GDP from a low level
- ECB Quantitative Easing continues to provide liquidity in Eurozone
- Syrian Civil War coming to an end? Turkey / Russia / Assad and Rebels signed Aleppo ceasefire
- Monetary experiments in Colombia & India with withdrawal of big denomination cash notes to curb tax evasion & black Markets / Expose Drug cartels
- Swiss vote against minimum pay-out to all its citizens to eliminate poverty and stimulate the economy
- Danish experiment to support unemployed with monthly income for 2 years begins in Dec 2016
- Earthquake disasters in Italy, SE Asia & Chile with many more R6 quakes (Japan, etc)
- Natural Weather disasters (Floods)recorded in SE Asia, Africa
-Social & political unrest persists in Africa & ME hotspots
Digital Money Creation - The answer to global issues
DIGITAL CRYPTO MONEY: Controlled issue of crypto money by Central Banks need to be encouraged so as to support budgets of nations through Debt Free funding for Infrastructure and social upgrading / reduced inequality.
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